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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • MLP Midstream Stats 1-24-17 0 comments
    Jan 24, 2014 8:50 PM
    MLP Midstream 01-24-14

    Yields are based on the Q4-13 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q4-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2013 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


      CurrentDistrib/Q4 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change
      PriceQuarterYield20142015PricePr+DistEPSTargetDCFDist*cagr

    Access(NYSE:ACMP)56.050.53503.8266.4665.05-0.94-0.941.241.850.0022.990.00
    American(NYSE:AMID)26.150.45256.9287.4479.04-3.43-3.430.00-1.000.004.620.00
    Atlas Pipelines(NYSE:APL)33.840.62007.3384.0778.23-3.45-3.45-6.67-1.490.008.770.00
    BlueKnight(NASDAQ:BKEP)9.160.12255.3547.5747.577.647.640.000.000.008.890.00
    Buckeye(NYSE:BPL)72.201.07505.9691.4983.661.681.68-0.540.880.003.610.00
    Boardwalk(NYSE:BWP)24.480.53258.70107.58104.41-4.08-4.08-3.31-0.630.000.000.00
    Crestwood(NYSE:CMLP)23.350.40506.9487.5783.08-6.19-6.198.93-2.770.006.580.00
    DCP Partners(NYSE:DPM)49.070.72005.8787.5477.42-2.54-2.541.67-0.160.005.880.00
    El Paso(NYSE:EPB)34.220.65007.60100.7891.55-4.94-4.94-2.91-3.790.0012.070.00
    Enbridge(NYSE:EEP)28.930.54357.51102.5596.19-3.15-3.15-3.570.000.000.000.00
    Enterprise(NYSE:EPD)64.730.69004.2666.5162.30-2.37-2.370.000.610.006.150.00
    Energy Trans(NYSE:ETP)54.040.90506.7077.1984.38-5.61-5.612.880.520.001.260.00
    EQT Mdstrm(NYSE:EQM)62.730.43002.7455.4847.516.706.700.003.790.0022.860.00
    Exterran(NASDAQ:EXLP)29.740.52757.0980.8487.55-1.62-1.620.790.890.003.940.00
    Genesis(NYSE:GEL)53.520.52253.9171.0962.201.811.81-1.600.900.0010.580.00
    Holly(NYSE:HEP)33.510.49255.8889.9580.083.653.65-1.690.000.006.490.00
    Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMP)82.401.35006.5594.2492.312.162.16-1.47-0.200.007.140.00
    Magellan(NYSE:MMP)63.950.55753.4972.6465.011.071.071.446.200.0014.950.00
    Mark West(NYSE:MWE)68.140.85004.9978.3463.433.043.04-3.09-0.960.004.940.00
    Targa(NYSE:NGLS)50.610.73255.7983.4876.10-3.23-3.230.000.500.0010.570.00
    NuStar(NYSE:NS)48.231.09509.08114.9695.01-5.41-5.41-0.540.000.000.000.00
    OneOK(NYSE:OKS)53.210.72505.4586.8375.321.061.060.002.610.005.840.00
    Oil Tanking(NYSE:OILT)63.600.44502.8063.1262.462.462.460.330.520.0018.670.00
    Plains All-Am(NYSE:PAA)51.730.60004.6476.6878.43-0.08-0.08-1.870.000.0010.600.00
    Regency(NYSE:RGP)26.650.47007.0590.8291.261.491.490.000.310.002.170.00
    Spectra(NYSE:SEP)43.720.51634.7280.0580.99-3.59-3.59-1.560.000.005.370.00
    Sunco(NYSE:SXL)75.380.63003.3454.6656.38-0.13-0.13-1.331.800.0021.740.00
    TCPipelines(NYSE:TCP)46.560.81006.9687.5785.04-3.86-3.860.000.000.003.850.00
    Tesoro(NYSE:TLLP)53.490.54504.0871.0167.082.202.200.000.810.0019.780.00
    Transmontaigne(NYSE:TLP)43.210.65006.0274.2973.651.671.670.000.000.001.560.00
    Western(NYSE:WES)60.230.58003.8576.0770.09-2.37-2.37-2.16-0.100.0016.000.00
    Williams(NYSE:WPZ)50.870.87756.9098.3291.170.020.02-0.470.000.008.670.00
    Cross-Tex(XTEX)28.200.33004.6884.0870.212.172.170.000.000.000.000.00

    Pipeline Average  5.6781.5576.49-0.55-0.55-0.470.340.008.38 
    Shipping
    Navios(NYSE:NMM)18.060.44259.80101.1498.33-5.54-5.546.855.690.000.000.00
    Martin(NASDAQ:MMLP)43.450.78257.2089.9472.791.521.520.000.000.001.620.00
    TeeKay(NYSE:TGP)41.320.67506.5391.5378.49-3.25-3.252.80-0.440.000.000.00

    Shipping Average  7.8597.14 -2.43-2.433.221.75  

    MidStream Average 5.8582.6177.05-0.71-0.71-0.160.45  

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -0.69% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -0.80% and with dividends is -0.80%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -3.14% and with dividends is -3.14%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -1.66% and with dividend is -1.66%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.72% & the sector average yield [on Q4 distrib's] at 5.85% - the spread is 313 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 5.91% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -7 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.78% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 6 bps.

    My CAGR projections are an attempt at the consensus brokerage projections based on the current numbers from several brokerages. I also use the price implied CAGR projection as a factor in setting my CAGRs. I also have a cap or maximum CAGR projection of 9.5%. All of the companies with CAGR projections over 8% have median analyst projections that are higher than my projections. RRRs is the acronym for Required Rate of Return. This is a metric that is needed to do Dividend Discount Model calculations. The price implied CAGR is one of those calculations. In simplistic terms - the RRR is a quantification of the risk attribute. Companies with more volatile business models have higher risk and thus have higher RRRs. My RRRs are based on debt ratings and debt metrics, along with assessments provided by Morgan Stanley and Wells and my historical DCF projection accuracy numbers. I have a minimum valuation of 9.7% and a maximum valuation of 13.0%. There is not a ton of thought that goes into that assessment. Basically all I have done is assess the BBB rated companies - where are the investment grade large cap midstreams - with a 10, while giving higher risk assessments to lower bond rated companies. TR - RRR is a simplistic buy or sell suggestion metric. Positive numbers suggest a buy and negative numbers suggest a sell.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistribution
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/14 DCF
    Large Cap Midstream
    BuckeyeBPL5.96%4.00%9.96%BBB-2.3010.40-0.442.64.4491.49
    BoardwalkBWP8.70%1.50%10.20%BBB3.2010.70-0.503.12.00107.58
    El PasoEPB7.60%2.00%9.60%BBB-1.2010.30-0.703.12.70100.78
    EnbridgeEEP7.51%2.70%10.21%BBB2.4010.50-0.292.92.99102.55
    EnterpriseEPD4.26%6.70%10.96%BBB+1.209.701.261.65.4466.51
    Energy TransETP6.70%4.00%10.70%BBB-3.0010.70-0.002.34.0077.19
    Kinder MorganKMP6.55%4.70%11.25%BBB1.0010.001.252.53.4594.24
    MagellanMMP3.49%8.80%12.29%BBB1.0010.002.292.46.5172.64
    NuStarNS9.08%1.50%10.58%BB+4.0011.50-0.923.12.42114.96
    OneOKOKS5.45%6.70%12.15%BBB1.5010.501.652.15.0586.83
    Plains All-AmPAA4.64%8.50%13.14%BBB1.0010.003.141.85.3676.68
    WilliamsWPZ6.90%5.40%12.30%BBB3.0011.001.302.24.1098.32

    Average 6.40%4.71%11.11%    2.48

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Small Cap Midstream
    BlueKnightBKEP5.35%8.50%13.85%none4.0013.500.353.38.1547.57
    GenesisGEL3.91%8.70%12.61%BB-2.7011.800.812.27.8971.09
    HollyHEP5.88%6.00%11.88%BB1.3011.200.683.15.3289.95
    Oil TankingOILT2.80%7.70%10.50%none2.0010.50-0.002.47.7063.12
    SpectraSEP4.72%6.80%11.52%BBB2.2010.501.023.15.7880.05
    SuncoSXL3.34%8.90%12.24%BBB-1.0010.002.242.66.6654.66
    TCPipelinesTCP6.96%3.00%9.96%BBB1.0010.00-0.043.63.0487.57
    TesoroTLLP4.08%8.50%12.58%BB-1.2010.002.581.85.9271.01
    TransmontaigneTLP6.02%3.00%9.02%none1.2010.00-0.981.93.9874.29

    Average 4.78%6.79%11.57%    2.67

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Gathering & Processing
    AccessACMP3.82%9.60%13.42%BB-1.5012.001.421.78.1866.46
    AmericanAMID6.92%4.50%11.42%none5.0012.50-1.082.55.5887.44
    Atlas PipelinesAPL7.33%9.10%16.43%B+5.0013.502.931.86.1784.07
    CrestwoodCMLP6.94%5.00%11.94%B-3.7012.50-0.561.95.5687.57
    DCP PartnersDPM5.87%6.70%12.57%BBB-2.7011.501.071.95.6387.54
    EQT MdstrmEQM2.74%9.50%12.24%none2.0011.201.041.78.4655.48
    ExterranEXLP7.09%3.00%10.09%B-2.2011.50-1.412.64.4180.84
    Mark WestMWE4.99%8.70%13.69%BB3.2012.501.191.57.5178.34
    TargaNGLS5.79%6.90%12.69%BB1.7012.200.492.36.4183.48
    RegencyRGP7.05%4.00%11.05%BB-3.2012.00-0.952.84.9590.82
    WesternWES3.85%9.30%13.15%BBB-1.7011.201.951.97.3576.07
    Cross-TexXTEX4.68%8.50%13.18%B+4.0013.50-0.322.48.8284.08

    Average 5.59%7.07%12.66%    2.08

    Disclosure: I am long CMLP, DPM, EPD, GEL, KMP, MMP, MWE, WES, .

    Additional disclosure: I also have investments in PAGP, TRGP and WMB -- which are the general partners of PPA, NGLS and ACMP/WPZ

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