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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • MLP E&P Stats 01-24-17 1 comment
    Jan 24, 2014 9:45 PM
    MLP E&P Stocks

     12-31-13CurrentDistrib/Q4 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change
     PricePriceQuarterYield20142015PricePr+DistEPSTargetDCFDist*cagr

    ARP20.4821.600.560010.3782.6675.935.475.470.000.000.0030.230.00
    BBEP20.3420.420.48759.5586.6779.590.390.390.000.550.004.840.00
    EROC5.955.950.150010.0886.96100.000.000.000.000.000.00-31.820.00
    EVEP33.9335.960.77008.5791.3979.795.985.98-0.76-1.030.000.520.00
    LINE30.7933.040.72488.7776.5079.657.317.314.170.500.00-0.030.00
    LGCY28.1627.590.58508.4882.6974.05-2.02-2.021.59-0.400.003.540.00
    LRE17.0317.690.487511.0280.2578.003.883.880.00-1.800.002.090.00
    MCEP22.8523.110.51508.9161.8663.381.141.140.001.070.006.190.00
    MEMP21.9422.300.55009.8775.6081.781.641.64-0.920.510.0011.110.00
    QRE17.1217.700.487511.0292.4296.063.393.390.77-0.550.000.000.00
    VNR29.5230.300.62258.2277.5771.552.642.64-2.292.400.002.470.00

    The E&P Average 9.5381.3279.982.712.710.230.110.002.65 

    * Distribution growth is year over year - or Q4-13 dividend by Q4-12 Distribution dates used were:

    ARP : 11-13BBEP : 11-13EROC : 11-13EVEP : 11-13LINE: monthlyLGCY: 11-13
    LRE : 11-13MCEP: 11-13MEMP: 11-11QRE: 11-13VNR: monthly

    Historical MLP E&P Month-End Yields:

    Jan 09: 15.90%Feb: 18.45%Mar: 19.60%April: 15.48%May: 15.24%June: 10.58%
    July 09: 9.39%Aug: 7.75%Sept: 7.10%Oct : 7.49%Nov: 7.32%Dec: 6.47%
    Jan 10: 6.43%Feb: 6.30%Mar: 7.04%April: 6.68%May: 8.90%June: 8.53%
    July 10: 7.62%Aug: 7.90%Sept: 7.48%Oct : 7.10%Nov: 7.06%Dec: 6.59%
    Jan 11: 6.31%Feb: 6.17%Mar: 6.01%April: 5.78%May: 6.27%June: 6.37%
    July 11: 6.37%Aug: 6.68%Sept: 7.17%Oct : 6.50%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.42%
    Jan 12: 6.42%Feb: 7.41%Mar: 7.41%April: 7.50%May: 8.82%June: 8.70%
    July 12: 8.18%Aug: 7.94%Sept: 7.70%Oct : 7.59%Nov: 8.24%Dec: 8.73%
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 8.64%
    July 13: 8.68%Aug: 10.19%*Sept: 9.80%Oct : 9.89%Nov: 10.12%Dec: 9.79%

    For this sub-sector, I track the same kind of stats that I track with the midstream MLPs. Several years of tracking has shown me that using the same kind of metrics is not good enough in this sub-sector. E&P stocks react to drilling news. They react to new information on the prices at which forward production is hedged. They react to news on acquisitions. I started tracking E&Ps as a favor to those UBTI data providing volunteers who wanted something from me on this sub-sector. My stats are better than nothing - but I am not the best source for information on E&P valuations.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsMyTot RtnConsensusPr Impl
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR

    AtlasARP10.37%4.00%14.37%NR13.500.872.43.13
    BreitBurnBBEP9.55%2.50%12.05%B12.70-0.651.63.15
    EagleRockEROC10.08%0.10%10.18%B12.70-2.522.52.62
    EV EnergyEVEP8.57%4.00%12.57%B-13.00-0.432.14.43
    Linn EnergyLINE8.77%4.00%12.77%B13.00-0.232.44.23
    LegacyLGCY8.48%2.70%11.18%B-12.70-1.522.04.22
    LRR EnergyLRE11.02%2.50%13.52%NR13.500.022.32.48
    Mid-ConMCEP8.91%3.50%12.41%NR13.50-1.091.84.59
    MemorialMEMP9.87%4.00%13.87%B-13.000.871.73.13
    QR EnergyQRE11.02%1.00%12.02%B-13.00-0.982.11.98
    VanguardVNR8.22%3.70%11.92%B12.70-0.781.94.48

    Average 9.53%2.91%12.44%   2.07

    Disclosure: I am long ARP, .

    Additional disclosure: I purchased ARP as a replacement for BDC TCAP - which I sold in the middle of 2013 as a result of its failure to grow NAV. I needed to replace the income - so I needed an E&P MLP. Do not my ownership of ARP influence your buying decisions. If I had thought more on that purchase - I think I would have purchased the MLP ETN MLPL.

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Comments (1)
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  • EsotericPath
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Hi Factoids,
    Thanks for this. Very helpful. I also bought ARP (and BBEP) with the proceeds from selling all my LINE and LNCO after the Barrons article and SEC inquiry. I bought some VNR and a lot more LINE back in 2009. I had nice capital gains with LINE when I sold. I treat these E&P MLPs as income generating investments that will pay increasing distributions with time and with inflation
    EP
    25 Jan 2014, 09:38 AM Reply Like
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