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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • MLP E&P Stats 01-24-17 1 comment
    Jan 24, 2014 9:45 PM
    MLP E&P Stocks

     12-31-13CurrentDistrib/Q4 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change


    The E&P Average 9.5381.3279.982.712.710. 

    * Distribution growth is year over year - or Q4-13 dividend by Q4-12 Distribution dates used were:

    ARP : 11-13BBEP : 11-13EROC : 11-13EVEP : 11-13LINE: monthlyLGCY: 11-13
    LRE : 11-13MCEP: 11-13MEMP: 11-11QRE: 11-13VNR: monthly

    Historical MLP E&P Month-End Yields:

    Jan 09: 15.90%Feb: 18.45%Mar: 19.60%April: 15.48%May: 15.24%June: 10.58%
    July 09: 9.39%Aug: 7.75%Sept: 7.10%Oct : 7.49%Nov: 7.32%Dec: 6.47%
    Jan 10: 6.43%Feb: 6.30%Mar: 7.04%April: 6.68%May: 8.90%June: 8.53%
    July 10: 7.62%Aug: 7.90%Sept: 7.48%Oct : 7.10%Nov: 7.06%Dec: 6.59%
    Jan 11: 6.31%Feb: 6.17%Mar: 6.01%April: 5.78%May: 6.27%June: 6.37%
    July 11: 6.37%Aug: 6.68%Sept: 7.17%Oct : 6.50%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.42%
    Jan 12: 6.42%Feb: 7.41%Mar: 7.41%April: 7.50%May: 8.82%June: 8.70%
    July 12: 8.18%Aug: 7.94%Sept: 7.70%Oct : 7.59%Nov: 8.24%Dec: 8.73%
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 8.64%
    July 13: 8.68%Aug: 10.19%*Sept: 9.80%Oct : 9.89%Nov: 10.12%Dec: 9.79%

    For this sub-sector, I track the same kind of stats that I track with the midstream MLPs. Several years of tracking has shown me that using the same kind of metrics is not good enough in this sub-sector. E&P stocks react to drilling news. They react to new information on the prices at which forward production is hedged. They react to news on acquisitions. I started tracking E&Ps as a favor to those UBTI data providing volunteers who wanted something from me on this sub-sector. My stats are better than nothing - but I am not the best source for information on E&P valuations.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsMyTot RtnConsensusPr Impl
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR

    EV EnergyEVEP8.57%4.00%12.57%B-13.00-0.432.14.43
    Linn EnergyLINE8.77%4.00%12.77%B13.00-
    LRR EnergyLRE11.02%2.50%13.52%NR13.500.022.32.48
    QR EnergyQRE11.02%1.00%12.02%B-13.00-0.982.11.98

    Average 9.53%2.91%12.44%   2.07

    Disclosure: I am long ARP, .

    Additional disclosure: I purchased ARP as a replacement for BDC TCAP - which I sold in the middle of 2013 as a result of its failure to grow NAV. I needed to replace the income - so I needed an E&P MLP. Do not my ownership of ARP influence your buying decisions. If I had thought more on that purchase - I think I would have purchased the MLP ETN MLPL.

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Comments (1)
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  • EsotericPath
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
    Hi Factoids,
    Thanks for this. Very helpful. I also bought ARP (and BBEP) with the proceeds from selling all my LINE and LNCO after the Barrons article and SEC inquiry. I bought some VNR and a lot more LINE back in 2009. I had nice capital gains with LINE when I sold. I treat these E&P MLPs as income generating investments that will pay increasing distributions with time and with inflation
    25 Jan 2014, 09:38 AM Reply Like
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