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MLP E&P Stats 01-24-17

MLP E&P Stocks

  12-31-13 Current Distrib/ Q4 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
  Price Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

ARP 20.48 21.60 0.5600 10.37 82.66 75.93 5.47 5.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.23 0.00
BBEP 20.34 20.42 0.4875 9.55 86.67 79.59 0.39 0.39 0.00 0.55 0.00 4.84 0.00
EROC 5.95 5.95 0.1500 10.08 86.96 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -31.82 0.00
EVEP 33.93 35.96 0.7700 8.57 91.39 79.79 5.98 5.98 -0.76 -1.03 0.00 0.52 0.00
LINE 30.79 33.04 0.7248 8.77 76.50 79.65 7.31 7.31 4.17 0.50 0.00 -0.03 0.00
LGCY 28.16 27.59 0.5850 8.48 82.69 74.05 -2.02 -2.02 1.59 -0.40 0.00 3.54 0.00
LRE 17.03 17.69 0.4875 11.02 80.25 78.00 3.88 3.88 0.00 -1.80 0.00 2.09 0.00
MCEP 22.85 23.11 0.5150 8.91 61.86 63.38 1.14 1.14 0.00 1.07 0.00 6.19 0.00
MEMP 21.94 22.30 0.5500 9.87 75.60 81.78 1.64 1.64 -0.92 0.51 0.00 11.11 0.00
QRE 17.12 17.70 0.4875 11.02 92.42 96.06 3.39 3.39 0.77 -0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00
VNR 29.52 30.30 0.6225 8.22 77.57 71.55 2.64 2.64 -2.29 2.40 0.00 2.47 0.00

The E&P Average   9.53 81.32 79.98 2.71 2.71 0.23 0.11 0.00 2.65  

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* Distribution growth is year over year - or Q4-13 dividend by Q4-12 Distribution dates used were:

ARP : 11-13 BBEP : 11-13 EROC : 11-13 EVEP : 11-13 LINE: monthly LGCY: 11-13
LRE : 11-13 MCEP: 11-13 MEMP: 11-11 QRE: 11-13 VNR: monthly
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Historical MLP E&P Month-End Yields:

Jan 09: 15.90% Feb: 18.45% Mar: 19.60% April: 15.48% May: 15.24% June: 10.58%
July 09: 9.39% Aug: 7.75% Sept: 7.10% Oct : 7.49% Nov: 7.32% Dec: 6.47%
Jan 10: 6.43% Feb: 6.30% Mar: 7.04% April: 6.68% May: 8.90% June: 8.53%
July 10: 7.62% Aug: 7.90% Sept: 7.48% Oct : 7.10% Nov: 7.06% Dec: 6.59%
Jan 11: 6.31% Feb: 6.17% Mar: 6.01% April: 5.78% May: 6.27% June: 6.37%
July 11: 6.37% Aug: 6.68% Sept: 7.17% Oct : 6.50% Nov: 6.80% Dec: 6.42%
Jan 12: 6.42% Feb: 7.41% Mar: 7.41% April: 7.50% May: 8.82% June: 8.70%
July 12: 8.18% Aug: 7.94% Sept: 7.70% Oct : 7.59% Nov: 8.24% Dec: 8.73%
Jan 13: Feb: Mar: April: May: June: 8.64%
July 13: 8.68% Aug: 10.19%* Sept: 9.80% Oct : 9.89% Nov: 10.12% Dec: 9.79%
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For this sub-sector, I track the same kind of stats that I track with the midstream MLPs. Several years of tracking has shown me that using the same kind of metrics is not good enough in this sub-sector. E&P stocks react to drilling news. They react to new information on the prices at which forward production is hedged. They react to news on acquisitions. I started tracking E&Ps as a favor to those UBTI data providing volunteers who wanted something from me on this sub-sector. My stats are better than nothing - but I am not the best source for information on E&P valuations.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds My Tot Rtn Consensus Pr Impl
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR

Atlas ARP 10.37% 4.00% 14.37% NR 13.50 0.87 2.4 3.13
BreitBurn BBEP 9.55% 2.50% 12.05% B 12.70 -0.65 1.6 3.15
EagleRock EROC 10.08% 0.10% 10.18% B 12.70 -2.52 2.5 2.62
EV Energy EVEP 8.57% 4.00% 12.57% B- 13.00 -0.43 2.1 4.43
Linn Energy LINE 8.77% 4.00% 12.77% B 13.00 -0.23 2.4 4.23
Legacy LGCY 8.48% 2.70% 11.18% B- 12.70 -1.52 2.0 4.22
LRR Energy LRE 11.02% 2.50% 13.52% NR 13.50 0.02 2.3 2.48
Mid-Con MCEP 8.91% 3.50% 12.41% NR 13.50 -1.09 1.8 4.59
Memorial MEMP 9.87% 4.00% 13.87% B- 13.00 0.87 1.7 3.13
QR Energy QRE 11.02% 1.00% 12.02% B- 13.00 -0.98 2.1 1.98
Vanguard VNR 8.22% 3.70% 11.92% B 12.70 -0.78 1.9 4.48

Average   9.53% 2.91% 12.44%       2.07
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Disclosure: I am long ARP, .

Additional disclosure: I purchased ARP as a replacement for BDC TCAP - which I sold in the middle of 2013 as a result of its failure to grow NAV. I needed to replace the income - so I needed an E&P MLP. Do not my ownership of ARP influence your buying decisions. If I had thought more on that purchase - I think I would have purchased the MLP ETN MLPL.