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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Health Care REIT Stats Update 01-28-14 0 comments
    Jan 28, 2014 5:43 PM

    When I last wrote on Health Care REITs, I was telling you it was a bad time to be buying. It was a suboptimal time to buy - as interest rates were quickly rising. Those who delayed their purchases were well served by my advice. But it was a total accident on my part. I had no idea that interest rates would take off in December and then fall back in January.

    Health Care Update for Q1-14

    Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - MPW increased to $0.21/share for the dividend to be paid in January 2014. Yahoo shows a higher div for DOC - but I can not find a confirming press release. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. VTR has atypically had two dividend increases in the LTM.


      Share Price 2014 FFO Estimate   Div/ Percent Change LTM
    Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 01-28 1-01 01-28 Yield FFO Price Pr+Div 14 FFO Target Div

    Aviv REIT (NYSE:AVIV) 23.70 24.55 1.85 1.79 5.87 80.45 3.59 5.11 -3.24 0.00 0.00
    Physicians Realty (NYSE:DOC) 12.24 12.54 0.98 0.95 7.18 94.74 2.45 2.45 -3.06 0.27 0.00
    Health Care REIT (NYSE:HCN) 53.57 56.79 4.00 3.99 5.60 79.70 6.01 6.01 -0.25 -3.96 3.92
    Health Care Prop (NYSE:HCP) 36.32 39.12 3.06 3.04 5.37 69.08 7.71 7.71 -0.65 -4.97 0.00
    Health Care Realty (NYSE:HR) 21.31 22.80 1.41 1.41 5.26 85.11 6.99 6.99 0.00 -3.52 0.00
    Health Care Trust (NYSE:HTA) 9.84 10.74 0.69 0.71 5.35 80.99 9.15 10.61 2.90 -1.38 0.00
    LTC Property (NYSE:LTC) 35.39 37.37 2.65 2.64 5.46 77.27 5.59 6.08 -0.38 -0.78 9.68
    Med Prop Trust (NYSE:MPW) 12.22 12.95 1.12 1.12 6.49 75.00 5.97 7.69 0.00 0.00 5.00
    Nat'l Health Inv (NYSE:NHI) 56.10 62.61 4.13 4.13 4.70 71.19 11.60 11.60 0.00 -0.95 9.70
    Omega Health (NYSE:OHI) 29.80 32.35 2.73 2.73 6.06 71.79 8.56 8.56 0.00 -3.08 8.89
    Sabra Health Care (NASDAQ:SBRA) 26.14 28.81 2.20 2.25 4.72 60.44 10.21 10.21 2.27 1.12 0.00
    Senior Housing (NYSE:SNH) 22.23 22.45 1.74 1.74 6.95 89.66 0.99 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Universal Health (NYSE:UHT) 40.06 41.90 2.80 2.80 5.97 89.29 4.59 4.59 0.00 0.00 0.81
    Ventas (NYSE:VTR) 57.28 61.82 4.36 4.36 4.69 66.51 7.93 7.93 0.00 -5.16 8.21

    Average           5.69 77.94 6.52 6.89 -0.17 -1.60 3.85

    Dividend dates are:

    AVIV: 01-17-14 DOC: 11-01-13 HCN: 11-19-13 HCP: 11-18-13 HR : 11-29-13 HTA: 01-02-14 LTC: monthly
    MPW: 01-07-14 NHI: 11-07-13 OHI: 02-17-14 SBRA: 11-28-13 SNH: 11-20-13 UHT: 09-30-13 VTR: 12-31-13

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 5.33% June: 6.24% Sept: 5.90% Dec: 5.77%
    Mar 2008: 5.84% June: 6.33% Sept: 5.25% Dec: 6.89%
    Mar 2009: 9.11% June: 7.88% Sept: 6.67% Dec: 6.31%
    Mar 2010: 6.67% June: 6.09% Sept: 5.62% Dec: 5.75%
    Mar 2011: 5.48% June: 5.64% Sept: 6.02% Dec: 5.34%
    Mar 2012: 5.16% June: 4.84% Sept: 4.89% Dec: 4.69%
    Mar 2013: 4.66% June: 5.09% Sept: 5.49% Dec: 6.02%
    Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 01-28

    The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2013 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79 and the 2014 ratio fell from 13.90 to 13.80. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65%.


      FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
    Co. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

    AVIV 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.18 1.79 NaN Infinity 51.69 na 20.81 13.72 190 176 7.82%
    DOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.95 NaN Infinity 265.38 na 48.23 13.20 84 21 66.32%
    HCN 3.12 3.13 3.41 3.51 3.77 3.99 2.93 7.41 5.84 16.18 15.06 14.23 413 390 5.76%
    HCP 2.14 2.19 2.69 2.76 2.99 3.04 2.60 8.33 1.67 14.17 13.08 12.87 317 297 6.58%
    HR 1.65 1.29 1.15 1.31 1.29 1.41 13.91 -1.53 9.30 17.40 17.67 16.17 147 135 8.51%
    HTA 0.00 0.38 0.51 0.61 0.64 0.71 19.61 4.92 10.94 17.61 16.78 15.13 73 64 12.68%
    LTC 1.89 1.88 2.15 2.26 2.35 2.64 5.12 3.98 12.34 16.54 15.90 14.16 270 258 4.55%
    MPW 0.79 0.66 0.71 0.90 0.99 1.12 26.76 10.00 13.13 14.39 13.08 11.56 114 110 3.57%
    NHI 2.33 2.76 2.88 3.18 3.53 4.13 10.42 11.01 17.00 19.69 17.74 15.16 390 366 5.81%
    OHI 1.47 1.61 1.89 2.19 2.50 2.73 15.87 14.16 9.20 14.77 12.94 11.85 276 259 6.23%
    SBRA 0.00 0.00 1.31 1.41 1.87 2.25 7.63 32.62 20.32 20.43 15.41 12.80 237 178 26.22%
    SNH 1.69 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.70 1.74 1.16 -2.86 2.35 12.83 13.21 12.90 183 167 9.20%
    UHT 2.80 2.61 2.57 2.84 2.73 2.80 10.51 -3.87 2.56 14.75 15.35 14.96 280 280 0.00%
    VTR 2.66 2.85 3.37 3.80 4.13 4.36 12.76 8.68 5.57 16.27 14.97 14.18 445 421 5.50%

    Average           NaN -43.57 12.46 16.25 17.87 13.78

    Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
    Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
    Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
    Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
    Mar 2011: 15.07 June: 14.62 Sept: 12.91 Dec: 14.95
    Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
    Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: 15.21 Dec: 16.67

    note - The consensus analyst ratings have not been updated since November of 2013

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    Company Q1-14 My Total Bonds My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Div
        Yield CAGR Return Ratings RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / FAD

    Aviv REIT AVIV 5.87% 5.00% 10.87% NR 10.70 0.17 2.8 4.83 83.72
    Physicians Realty DOC 7.18% 3.20% 10.38% NR 10.20 0.18 1.5 3.02 97.83
    Health Care REIT HCN 5.60% 4.10% 9.70% BBB 9.00 0.70 2.7 3.61 95.78
    Health Care Prop HCP 5.37% 4.10% 9.47% BBB+ 9.20 0.27 2.8 3.83 83.67
    Health Care Realty HR 5.26% 1.50% 6.76% BBB- 8.20 -1.44 3.0 2.94 90.23
    Health Care Trust HTA 5.35% 3.00% 8.35% BBB- 8.00 0.35 2.4 2.65 99.14
    LTC Property LTC 5.46% 4.40% 9.86% NR 9.70 0.16 2.9 4.24 89.47
    Med Prop Trust MPW 6.49% 4.50% 10.99% BB 10.60 0.39 3.0 4.42 90.32
    Nat'l Health Inv NHI 4.70% 5.00% 9.70% NR 9.80 -0.10 3.1 5.10 82.82
    Omega Health OHI 6.06% 4.50% 10.56% BBB- 10.50 0.06 2.8 4.56 87.11
    Sabra Health Care SBRA 4.72% 5.00% 9.72% BB- 10.00 -0.28 1.9 5.28 77.27
    Senior Housing SNH 6.95% 2.00% 8.95% BBB- 8.70 0.25 3.2 1.75 99.36
    Universal Health UHT 5.97% 3.00% 8.97% NR 9.00 -0.03 3.0 3.03 90.91
    Ventas VTR 4.69% 6.20% 10.89% BBB 9.50 1.39 2.8 4.81 73.23

    Average   5.69% 3.96% 9.65%       2.71

    Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.

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