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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • MLP Stats 1-31-14 0 comments
    Feb 1, 2014 12:32 PM

    A quick note on how the spreadsheets "display" - When Seeking Alpha increased the font size in the text of their documents, they also increased the font size in my javascript created spreadsheets. My spreadsheets are atypical. It is my current belief that most Seeking Alpha contributors upload spreadsheets as picture files - while my spreadsheets are of my own creation. There are - upon the request of the SA editors - live links embedded in those documents.

    When I view my spreadsheets as posted in some articles - and as posted in this specific blog - I am not seeing the full spreadsheet. The right hand side is truncated. All columns are not being shown. Seeking Alpha staff have contacted me and told me that they are working on this problem.

    Second note - This is the first time I have uploaded data that contains the Q1-14 distribution.

    MLP Midstream 01-31-14

    Yields are based on the Q1-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q1-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


        Current Distrib/ Q1 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
        Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

    Access (NYSE:ACMP) 56.05 0.5550 3.96 68.94 67.48 -0.94 -0.94 1.24 1.85 0.00 23.33 0.00
    American (NYSE:AMID) 26.51 0.4525 6.83 87.44 79.04 -2.10 -2.10 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.62 0.00
    Atlas Pipelines (NYSE:APL) 33.43 0.6200 7.42 84.07 78.23 -4.62 -4.62 -6.67 -1.49 0.00 6.90 0.00
    BlueKnight (NASDAQ:BKEP) 8.98 0.1264 5.63 49.09 49.09 5.52 5.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.91 0.00
    Buckeye (NYSE:BPL) 72.99 1.0750 5.89 91.49 83.66 2.79 2.79 -0.54 1.25 0.00 3.61 0.00
    Boardwalk (NYSE:BWP) 24.62 0.5325 8.65 107.58 104.41 -3.53 -3.53 -3.31 -1.82 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Crestwood (NYSE:CMLP) 23.10 0.4100 7.10 88.65 84.10 -7.19 -7.19 8.93 -2.77 0.00 6.49 0.00
    DCP Partners (NYSE:DPM) 50.23 0.7325 5.83 89.06 78.76 -0.24 -0.24 1.67 -0.16 0.00 6.16 0.00
    El Paso (NYSE:EPB) 32.81 0.6500 7.92 100.78 91.55 -8.86 -8.86 -2.91 -7.58 0.00 6.56 0.00
    Enbridge (NYSE:EEP) 29.38 0.5435 7.40 102.55 96.19 -1.64 -1.64 -3.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Enterprise (NYSE:EPD) 66.38 0.7000 4.22 67.47 63.21 0.12 0.12 0.00 1.30 0.00 6.06 0.00
    Energy Trans (NYSE:ETP) 55.51 0.9200 6.63 78.46 85.78 -3.04 -3.04 2.88 0.52 0.00 2.94 0.00
    EQT Mdstrm (NYSE:EQM) 62.20 0.4600 2.96 59.35 50.83 5.80 5.80 0.00 3.79 0.00 31.43 0.00
    Exterran (EXLP) 29.90 0.5325 7.12 81.61 88.38 -1.09 -1.09 0.79 0.89 0.00 3.90 0.00
    Genesis (NYSE:GEL) 55.03 0.5350 3.89 72.79 63.69 4.68 4.68 -1.60 0.90 0.00 10.31 0.00
    Holly (NYSE:HEP) 32.36 0.5000 6.18 91.32 81.30 0.09 0.09 -1.69 0.00 0.00 6.38 0.00
    Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMP) 79.48 1.3600 6.84 94.94 92.99 -1.46 -1.46 -1.47 -1.10 0.00 5.43 0.00
    Magellan (NYSE:MMP) 66.46 0.5850 3.52 76.22 68.22 5.04 5.04 1.44 8.32 0.00 17.00 0.00
    Mark West (NYSE:MWE) 70.19 0.8600 4.90 79.26 64.18 6.14 6.14 -3.09 -0.96 0.00 4.88 0.00
    Targa (NYSE:NGLS) 52.51 0.7475 5.69 85.19 77.66 0.40 0.40 0.00 0.70 0.00 9.93 0.00
    NuStar (NYSE:NS) 49.50 1.0950 8.85 114.96 95.01 -2.92 -2.92 -0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    OneOK (NYSE:OKS) 51.83 0.7300 5.63 87.43 75.84 -1.56 -1.56 0.00 2.61 0.00 2.82 0.00
    Oil Tanking (NYSE:OILT) 63.63 0.4700 2.95 66.67 65.96 2.51 2.51 0.33 1.06 0.00 20.51 0.00
    Plains All-Am (NYSE:PAA) 50.49 0.6150 4.87 78.59 80.39 -2.47 -2.47 -1.87 0.00 0.00 9.33 0.00
    Regency (NYSE:RGP) 27.43 0.4750 6.93 91.79 92.23 4.46 4.46 0.00 0.31 0.00 3.26 0.00
    Spectra (NYSE:SEP) 44.30 0.5163 4.66 80.05 80.99 -2.32 -2.32 -1.56 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.00
    Sunco (NYSE:SXL) 78.58 0.6625 3.37 57.48 59.28 4.11 4.11 -1.33 2.12 0.00 21.56 0.00
    TCPipelines (NYSE:TCP) 46.52 0.8100 6.96 87.57 85.04 -3.94 -3.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.85 0.00
    Tesoro (NYSE:TLLP) 53.16 0.5650 4.25 73.62 69.54 1.57 1.57 0.00 0.81 0.00 19.70 0.00
    Transmontaigne (NYSE:TLP) 43.84 0.6500 5.93 74.29 73.65 3.15 3.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56 0.00
    Western (NYSE:WES) 59.46 0.6000 4.04 78.69 72.51 -3.61 -3.61 -2.16 -0.10 0.00 15.38 0.00
    Williams (NYSE:WPZ) 50.10 0.8925 7.13 100.00 92.73 -1.49 -1.49 -0.47 0.00 0.00 7.85 0.00
    Cross-Tex (XTEX) 27.48 0.3600 5.24 91.72 76.60 -0.43 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.00

    Pipeline Average     5.74 83.00 77.83 -0.21 -0.21 -0.47 0.35 0.00 8.64  
    Shipping
    Navios (NYSE:NMM) 18.36 0.4425 9.64 101.14 98.33 -3.97 -3.97 6.85 8.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Martin (NASDAQ:MMLP) 43.42 0.7850 7.23 90.23 73.02 1.45 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.95 0.00
    TeeKay (NYSE:TGP) 40.47 0.6918 6.84 93.80 80.44 -5.24 -5.24 2.80 -0.44 0.00 2.49 0.00

    Shipping Average     7.90 98.02   -2.59 -2.59 3.22 2.59    

    MidStream Average   5.92 84.01 78.34 -0.41 -0.41 -0.16 0.53    

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -0.14% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 0.54% and with dividends is 0.54%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -3.52% and with dividends is -3.52%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -2.77% and with dividend is -2.77%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.65% & the sector average yield [on Q1 distrib's] at 5.92% - the spread is 327 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 5.83% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 9 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.86% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 6 bps.

    Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

    Jan 05: 5.97% Feb: 6.10% Mar: 6.07% April: 6.15% May: 6.16% June: 6.03%
    July 05: 5.87% Aug: 6.10% Sept: 6.07% Oct : 6.45% Nov: 6.79% Dec: 6.92%
    Jan 06: 6.56% Feb: 6.68% Mar: 6.56% April: 6.68% May: 6.76% June: 6.82%
    July 06: 6.61% Aug: 6.65% Sept: 6.70% Oct : 6.58% Nov: 6.44% Dec: 6.28%
    Jan 07: 6.05% Feb: 5.96% Mar: 5.77% April: 5.54% May: 5.54% June: 5.43%
    July 07: 5.44% Aug: 6.05% Sept: 6.26% Oct : 6.20% Nov: 6.64% Dec: 6.70%
    Jan 08: 6.79% Feb: 6.79% Mar: 7.43% April: 7.08% May: 7.44% June: 7.56%
    July 08: 8.16% Aug: 8.45% Sept: 10.76% Oct : 11.73% Nov: 16.53% Dec: 19.50%
    Jan 09: 14.76% Feb: 14.54% Mar: 13.90% April: 14.66% May: 9.80% June: 9.59%
    July 09: 8.39% Aug: 8.61% Sept: 7.96% Oct : 7.84% Nov: 7.62% Dec: 7.13%
    Jan 10: 6.64% Feb: 6.50% Mar: 6.34% April: 6.23% May: 6.71% June: 6.27%
    July 10: 5.85% Aug: 6.14% Sept: 5.89% Oct : 6.14%* Nov: 6.00% Dec: 5.79%
    Jan 11: 5.87% Feb: 5.62% Mar: 5.65% April: 5.59% May: 5.95% June: 5.90%
    July 11: 6.21% Aug: 6.73% Sept: 7.10%** Oct : 6.51% Nov: 6.80% Dec: 6.45%
    Jan 12: 6.45% Feb: 6.43% Mar: 6.43% April: 6.42% May: 7.26% June: 7.06%
    July 12: 6.81% Aug: 6.87% Sept: 6.75% Oct : 6.79% Nov: 7.08% Dec: 7.31%
    Jan 13: x.xx% Feb: x.xx% Mar: x.xx% April: x.xx% May: x.xx% June: 6.14%
    July 13: 6.18% Aug: 6.51% Sept: 6.39% Oct : 6.34% Nov: 6.21% Dec: 5.77%***
    Jan 14: 5.92% Feb: Mar: April: May: June:

    * The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
    ** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
    *** The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield.

    Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

    Jan 05: 178 Feb: 152 Mar: 156 April: 195 May: 216 June: 211
    July 05: 159 Aug: 208 Sept: 174 Oct : 177 Nov: 230 Dec: 252
    Jan 06: 206 Feb: 213 Mar: 171 April: 161 May: 164 June: 167
    July 06: 161 Aug: 192 Sept: 206 Oct : 198 Nov: 198 Dec: 158
    Jan 07: 123 Feb: 138 Mar: 122 April: 89 May: 65 June: 40
    July 07: 71 Aug: 152 Sept: 167 Oct : 172 Nov: 269 Dec: 267
    Jan 08: 319 Feb: 327 Mar: 401 April: 335 May: 338 June: 358
    July 08: 420 Aug: 463 Sept: 694 Oct : 801 Nov: 1360 Dec: 1728
    Jan 09: 1191 Feb: 1152 Mar: 1294 April: 1154 May: 634 June: 606
    July 09: 491 Aug: 551 Sept: 488 Oct : 485 Nov: 443 Dec: 329
    Jan 10: 305 Feb: 288 Mar: 251 April: 257 May: 341 June: 333
    July 10: 294 Aug: 367 Sept: 337 Oct : 354 Nov: 321 Dec: 250
    Jan 11: 250 Feb: 224 Mar: 219 April: 230 May: 289 June: 273
    July 11: 341 Aug: 454 Sept: 518 Oct : 439 Nov: 472 Dec: 457
    Jan 12: 457 Feb: 421 Mar: 421 April: 450 May: 570 June: 546
    July 12: 534 Aug: 531 Sept: 511 Oct : 510 Nov: 546 Dec: 555
    Jan 13: Feb: Mar: April: May: June: 366
    July 13: 360 Aug: 373 Sept: 378 Oct : 379 Nov: 347 Dec: 274
    Jan 14: 327 Feb: Mar: April: May: June:

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    Company Q1-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distribution
        Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR /14 DCF
    Large Cap Midstream
    Buckeye BPL 5.89% 4.00% 9.89% BBB- 2.30 10.40 -0.51 2.6 4.51 91.49
    Boardwalk BWP 8.65% 1.00% 9.65% BBB 3.20 10.70 -1.05 3.1 2.05 107.58
    El Paso EPB 7.92% 2.00% 9.92% BBB- 1.20 10.30 -0.38 3.1 2.38 100.78
    Enbridge EEP 7.40% 1.50% 8.90% BBB 2.40 10.50 -1.60 2.9 3.10 102.55
    Enterprise EPD 4.22% 6.70% 10.92% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 1.22 1.6 5.48 67.47
    Energy Trans ETP 6.63% 3.50% 10.13% BBB- 3.00 10.70 -0.57 2.3 4.07 78.46
    Kinder Morgan KMP 6.84% 4.70% 11.54% BBB 1.00 10.00 1.54 2.5 3.16 94.94
    Magellan MMP 3.52% 8.80% 12.32% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.32 2.4 6.48 76.22
    NuStar NS 8.85% 1.50% 10.35% BB+ 4.00 11.50 -1.15 3.1 2.65 114.96
    OneOK OKS 5.63% 6.70% 12.33% BBB 1.50 10.50 1.83 2.1 4.87 87.43
    Plains All-Am PAA 4.87% 8.30% 13.17% BBB 1.00 10.00 3.17 1.8 5.13 78.59
    Williams WPZ 7.13% 5.40% 12.53% BBB 3.00 11.00 1.53 2.2 3.87 100.00

    Average   6.46% 4.51% 10.97%         2.48

    Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
        Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
    Small Cap Midstream
    BlueKnight BKEP 5.63% 8.50% 14.13% none 4.00 13.50 0.63 3.3 7.87 49.09
    Genesis GEL 3.89% 8.60% 12.49% BB- 2.70 11.80 0.69 2.2 7.91 72.79
    Holly HEP 6.18% 6.00% 12.18% BB 1.30 11.20 0.98 3.1 5.02 91.32
    Oil Tanking OILT 2.95% 7.70% 10.65% none 2.00 10.50 0.15 2.4 7.55 66.67
    Spectra SEP 4.66% 6.50% 11.16% BBB 2.20 10.50 0.66 3.1 5.84 80.05
    Sunco SXL 3.37% 8.90% 12.27% BBB- 1.00 10.00 2.27 2.6 6.63 57.48
    TCPipelines TCP 6.96% 3.00% 9.96% BBB 1.00 10.00 -0.04 3.6 3.04 87.57
    Tesoro TLLP 4.25% 8.50% 12.75% BB- 1.20 10.00 2.75 1.8 5.75 73.62
    Transmontaigne TLP 5.93% 3.00% 8.93% none 1.20 10.00 -1.07 1.9 4.07 74.29

    Average   4.87% 6.74% 11.62%         2.67

    Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
        Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
    Gathering & Processing
    Access ACMP 3.96% 9.60% 13.56% BB- 1.50 12.00 1.56 1.7 8.04 68.94
    American AMID 6.83% 4.50% 11.33% none 5.00 12.50 -1.17 2.5 5.67 87.44
    Atlas Pipelines APL 7.42% 7.00% 14.42% B+ 5.00 13.50 0.92 1.8 6.08 84.07
    Crestwood CMLP 7.10% 4.80% 11.90% B- 3.70 12.50 -0.60 1.9 5.40 88.65
    DCP Partners DPM 5.83% 6.70% 12.53% BBB- 2.70 11.50 1.03 1.9 5.67 89.06
    EQT Mdstrm EQM 2.96% 9.50% 12.46% none 2.00 11.20 1.26 1.7 8.24 59.35
    Exterran EXLP 7.12% 3.00% 10.12% B- 2.20 11.50 -1.38 2.6 4.38 81.61
    Mark West MWE 4.90% 8.70% 13.60% BB 3.20 12.50 1.10 1.5 7.60 79.26
    Targa NGLS 5.69% 6.90% 12.59% BB 1.70 12.20 0.39 2.3 6.51 85.19
    Regency RGP 6.93% 3.80% 10.73% BB- 3.20 12.00 -1.27 2.8 5.07 91.79
    Western WES 4.04% 9.10% 13.14% BBB- 1.70 11.20 1.94 1.9 7.16 78.69
    Cross-Tex XTEX 5.24% 8.50% 13.74% B+ 4.00 13.50 0.24 2.4 8.26 91.72

    Average   5.67% 6.84% 12.51%         2.08

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