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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
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  • MLP Stat Update 2-14-14 3 comments
    Feb 15, 2014 10:19 AM

    I use a web page at Yahoo Finance to update my EPS projections that fails to detail the year of "this year EPS" - so I have no idea if the this year projection is for 2013 or 2014. This happens during earning release season for the second month of the year. As a result, I do not update those stats until almost all MLPs have reported. I did update the EPS stats for the few that I know have reported - like BPL, BWP, EPD, MMP and NGLS.

    There is something that will catch you by surprise - BWP actually had higher reported 2013 DCF than the analysts were projecting - and the 2014 DCF projection has only fallen 7.58%. It is the 2015 and 2016 DCF projections that have taken the big hit.

    MLP Midstream 02-14-14

    Yields are based on the Q1-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q1-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.

      CurrentDistrib/Q1 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change

    Atlas Pipelines(NYSE:APL)33.080.62007.5084.0778.23-5.62-3.85-6.67-1.810.006.900.00
    DCP Partners(NYSE:DPM)48.960.73255.9889.0678.76-2.76-1.311.67-
    El Paso(NYSE:EPB)30.990.65008.39100.7891.55-13.92-12.11-2.91-
    Energy Trans(NYSE:ETP)53.940.92006.8278.4685.78-5.78-4.172.880.520.002.940.00
    EQT Mdstrm(NYSE:EQM)65.000.46002.8359.3550.8310.5611.35-0.7612.920.0031.430.00
    Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMP)79.771.36006.8294.7793.15-1.100.58-1.47-1.690.175.430.00
    Mark West(NYSE:MWE)72.530.86004.7479.2664.189.6810.98-3.09-0.770.004.880.00
    Oil Tanking(NYSE:OILT)65.990.47002.8566.6765.966.327.070.331.060.0020.510.00
    Plains All-Am(NYSE:PAA)53.970.61504.5678.5980.394.255.44-1.870.280.009.330.00

    Pipeline Average  5.5280.5475.500.371.66- 

    Shipping Average  7.9898.02 -3.13-  

    MidStream Average 5.7281.7576.200.081.42-0.860.26  

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 0.80% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 2.11% and with dividends is 2.11%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -0.36% and with dividends is -0.36%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -1.13% and with dividend is -1.13%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.72% & the sector average yield [on Q1 distrib's] at 5.72% - the spread is 300 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 5.81% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -9 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.82% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -10 bps.

    Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

    Jan 05: 5.97%Feb: 6.10%Mar: 6.07%April: 6.15%May: 6.16%June: 6.03%
    July 05: 5.87%Aug: 6.10%Sept: 6.07%Oct : 6.45%Nov: 6.79%Dec: 6.92%
    Jan 06: 6.56%Feb: 6.68%Mar: 6.56%April: 6.68%May: 6.76%June: 6.82%
    July 06: 6.61%Aug: 6.65%Sept: 6.70%Oct : 6.58%Nov: 6.44%Dec: 6.28%
    Jan 07: 6.05%Feb: 5.96%Mar: 5.77%April: 5.54%May: 5.54%June: 5.43%
    July 07: 5.44%Aug: 6.05%Sept: 6.26%Oct : 6.20%Nov: 6.64%Dec: 6.70%
    Jan 08: 6.79%Feb: 6.79%Mar: 7.43%April: 7.08%May: 7.44%June: 7.56%
    July 08: 8.16%Aug: 8.45%Sept: 10.76%Oct : 11.73%Nov: 16.53%Dec: 19.50%
    Jan 09: 14.76%Feb: 14.54%Mar: 13.90%April: 14.66%May: 9.80%June: 9.59%
    July 09: 8.39%Aug: 8.61%Sept: 7.96%Oct : 7.84%Nov: 7.62%Dec: 7.13%
    Jan 10: 6.64%Feb: 6.50%Mar: 6.34%April: 6.23%May: 6.71%June: 6.27%
    July 10: 5.85%Aug: 6.14%Sept: 5.89%Oct : 6.14%*Nov: 6.00%Dec: 5.79%
    Jan 11: 5.87%Feb: 5.62%Mar: 5.65%April: 5.59%May: 5.95%June: 5.90%
    July 11: 6.21%Aug: 6.73%Sept: 7.10%**Oct : 6.51%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.45%
    Jan 12: 6.45%Feb: 6.43%Mar: 6.43%April: 6.42%May: 7.26%June: 7.06%
    July 12: 6.81%Aug: 6.87%Sept: 6.75%Oct : 6.79%Nov: 7.08%Dec: 7.31%
    Jan 13: x.xx%Feb: x.xx%Mar: x.xx%April: x.xx%May: x.xx%June: 6.14%
    July 13: 6.18%Aug: 6.51%Sept: 6.39%Oct : 6.34%Nov: 6.21%Dec: 5.77%***
    Jan 14: 5.92%Feb:Mar:April:May:June:

    * The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
    ** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
    *** The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield. Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

    Jan 05: 178Feb: 152Mar: 156April: 195May: 216June: 211
    July 05: 159Aug: 208Sept: 174Oct : 177Nov: 230Dec: 252
    Jan 06: 206Feb: 213Mar: 171April: 161May: 164June: 167
    July 06: 161Aug: 192Sept: 206Oct : 198Nov: 198Dec: 158
    Jan 07: 123Feb: 138Mar: 122April: 89May: 65June: 40
    July 07: 71Aug: 152Sept: 167Oct : 172Nov: 269Dec: 267
    Jan 08: 319Feb: 327Mar: 401April: 335May: 338June: 358
    July 08: 420Aug: 463Sept: 694Oct : 801Nov: 1360Dec: 1728
    Jan 09: 1191Feb: 1152Mar: 1294April: 1154May: 634June: 606
    July 09: 491Aug: 551Sept: 488Oct : 485Nov: 443Dec: 329
    Jan 10: 305Feb: 288Mar: 251April: 257May: 341June: 333
    July 10: 294Aug: 367Sept: 337Oct : 354Nov: 321Dec: 250
    Jan 11: 250Feb: 224Mar: 219April: 230May: 289June: 273
    July 11: 341Aug: 454Sept: 518Oct : 439Nov: 472Dec: 457
    Jan 12: 457Feb: 421Mar: 421April: 450May: 570June: 546
    July 12: 534Aug: 531Sept: 511Oct : 510Nov: 546Dec: 555
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 366
    July 13: 360Aug: 373Sept: 378Oct : 379Nov: 347Dec: 274
    Jan 14: 327Feb:Mar:April:May:June:

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Comments (3)
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  • 1434361
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
    Thanks for your continued comments , they are a reminder that metrics matter .
    15 Feb, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • caperdory
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
    I'm curious why you present dist/dcf.....isnt' the common language people use dcf/dist?
    16 Feb, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » You are correct that the common way to present the data is DCF/distribution ratio. We all have our idiosyncrasies - and this may be one of mine - but the stat registers with me in a better or stronger way in the "inverse" format. Why? I have a "first two digit" memory retention bias. And way too many MLPs have DCF/distribution ratios that start with "1.2". You get more granularity with Distribution/DCF in the first two digits.
    16 Feb, 07:26 AM Reply Like
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