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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Dividend Growth - The 750,000 Examples For 3 Portfolios 5 comments
    Feb 16, 2014 9:45 AM

    Due to early reader feedback, here is the data you requested.

    A 60s example Plan B - ten years 750,000

     Current LTM Div 
    CompanyYieldCAGRGrowthInvestedYr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
    REITs
    O5.223.00%19.64%7500039154033415442784407453946754815496051095262
    OHI6.114.00%9.09%7500145854768495951575363557858016033627465256786
    MLPs
    EPD4.136.00%6.15%7499430973283347936883910414443934656493652325546
    MMP3.248.50%14.95%7502024332640286531083372365939704307467450715502
    VNR8.293.50%3.75%7500162176434666068937134738476427909818684738769
    Consumer Staples
    CL2.178.00%9.68%7499716271757189820502214239125822789301232533513
    GIS3.057.50%15.15%7499522852456264028383051328035263791407543814709
    SJM2.538.00%11.54%7500018952047221123872578278530073248350837894092
    BDCs
    ARCC8.261.00%0.00%7500261926254631763806444650865736639670667736840
    HTGY6.730.00%0.00%7499750485048504850485048504850485048504850485048

    Total Income7500063729538721402304182843521453164721849236513785365256067

    Yield on original dollars 4.975.165.365.585.806.046.306.566.857.157.48

    Year over year Growth  3.823.903.974.054.124.204.274.354.434.50

    The average yield is 4.97 and the average CAGR is 4.95.

    A mid-70s example - ten years - 750,000

     Current LTM Div 
    CompanyYieldCAGRGrowthInvestedYr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
    REITs
    O5.223.00%19.64%7500039154033415442784407453946754815496051095262
    OHI6.114.00%9.09%7500145854768495951575363557858016033627465256786
    MLPs
    EPD4.136.00%6.15%7500130973283348036893910414443934657493652325546
    EEP7.852.00%0.00%7500158886006612662496374650166316764689970377178
    VNR8.293.50%3.75%7500162176434666068937134738476427909818684738769
    Consumer Staples
    CL2.178.00%9.68%7499716271757189820502214239125822789301232533513
    GIS3.057.50%15.15%7500022852456264128393052328035263791407543814709
    SJM2.538.00%11.54%7500018952047221123872578278530073248350837894092
    BDCs
    ARCC8.261.00%0.00%7500061926254631763806444650865736639670567726840
    HTGY6.730.00%0.00%7500050485048504850485048504850485048504850485048

    Total Income7500004075042087434924497046523481594988051694536055561957744

    Yield on original dollars 5.435.615.806.006.206.426.656.897.157.427.70

    Year over year Growth  3.283.343.403.463.513.573.643.703.763.82

    The average yield is 5.43 and the average CAGR is 4.30.

    A mid-80s example - ten years - 750,000

     Current LTM Div 
    CompanyYieldCAGRGrowthInvestedYr 0Yr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
    REITs
    O5.223.00%19.64%7500039154033415442784407453946754815496051095262
    OHI6.114.00%9.09%7500145854768495951575363557858016033627465256786
    MLPs
    EPD4.136.00%6.15%7500130973283348036893910414443934657493652325546
    EEP7.852.00%0.00%7500158886006612662496374650166316764689970377178
    VNR8.293.50%3.75%7499862176434665968927134738376427909818684728769
    Bank Preferred
    JPM-D6.400.00%0.00%7500048034803480348034803480348034803480348034803
    USB-O5.930.00%0.00%7500144504450445044504450445044504450445044504450
    WFC-O5.760.00%0.00%7499943204320432043204320432043204320432043204320
    BDCs
    ARCC8.261.00%0.00%7500061926254631763806444650865736639670567726840
    HTGY6.730.00%0.00%7500050485048504850485048504850485048504850485048

    Total Income7500024851649400503165126752253532765433755439565835777059003

    Yield on original dollars6.476.596.716.846.977.107.247.397.547.707.87

    Year over year Growth  1.821.861.891.921.961.992.032.062.102.13

    The average yield is 6.47 and the average CAGR is 1.95.

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Comments (5)
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  • Ginny
    , contributor
    Comments (371) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    16 Feb 2014, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • billbyte
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    If future GDP grows at a slower than historical rate, will not 1.) dividend growth slow 2.) or coverage fall ultimately raising risk? Do you look at coverage and risks thereto? If so, an addition to the spreadsheet might be a "risk adjustment." Thoughts?
    16 Feb 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I generate separate spreadsheets for CAGR assignment and risk or RRR (required rate of return) assignment. But those are in my sector updates - and not with spreadsheet for my existing portfolio.

     

    I try to make spreadsheets with the guide of "one spreadsheet - one story". It takes a village of spreadsheets to do a valuation judgement. The spreadsheets I have provided above are NOT valuation spreadsheets. The above spreadsheets are a collection of data to judge if you portfolio is headed in the right direction. The above spreadsheets are not spreadsheets to aid in stock selection.
    16 Feb 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • dnpvd51
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    I was interested in O until i saw the PE ratio. Isn't this guy a bit expensive?
    16 Feb 2014, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » dnpvd51 - the correct valuation metric for REITs is the price to FFO and not P/E. I hope you are using "normalized FFO". The projections offered by Yahoo are the used I use - and they use normalized FFO. And no - O is not expensive. O is more or less correctly valued.
    16 Feb 2014, 08:13 PM Reply Like
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