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BDC Stats Update 02-18-14

BDCs 02-18-14

Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q1-14 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2014 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q1-14 dividend from the Q1-13 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q3-12 and Q3-13. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC will pay a special dividend of $0.05/share payable on 3-28-14. TCAP will pay a special dividend of $0.15/share in March and June. FSC and FULL have cut their first quarter dividend.


    Share Price   Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q3-13 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 02-18 Yield EPS13 EPS14 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

American Cap (NASDAQ:ACAS) 15.64 15.08 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.54 0.77 -3.58 -3.58 0.00 0.44 na 12.36
Apollo Invest (NASDAQ:AINV) 8.48 9.04 8.85 96.4 90.9 93.4 9.8 8.30 1.09 6.60 8.96 0.00 -0.68 0.00 -1.78
Ares Capital (NASDAQ:ARCC) 17.77 18.51 8.21 92.7 91.6 94.9 9.4 16.35 1.13 4.16 4.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.88
BlackRock (NASDAQ:BKCC) 9.33 9.61 10.82 133.3 110.6 149.7 11.1 9.38 1.02 3.00 5.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.78
Fidus Invest (NASDAQ:FDUS) 21.74 21.42 7.10 110.9 85.4 109.3 9.5 15.98 1.34 -1.47 -1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.65
Fifth St (NYSE:FSC) 9.25 9.74 10.26 99.0 97.0 98.8 10.1 9.85 0.99 5.30 6.11 0.00 0.48 -13.05 -0.71
Full Circle (FULL) 7.04 7.76 10.36 104.4 105.8 109.3 10.0 7.48 1.04 10.23 11.08 -2.56 -3.03 -12.99 -12.10
Gladstone Inv (NASDAQ:GAIN) 8.06 7.96 7.54 88.2 84.5 72.5 7.0 9.12 0.87 -1.24 -0.62 0.00 9.38 0.00 2.13
Golub Cap (NASDAQ:GBDC) 19.11 18.96 6.75 99.2 93.4 98.9 8.5 15.21 1.25 -0.78 -0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.18
Gladstone Cap (NASDAQ:GLAD) 9.57 10.00 8.40 95.5 100.0 95.4 9.8 9.81 1.02 4.49 5.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.85
Horizon (NASDAQ:HRZN) 14.21 14.61 9.45 99.3 94.5 99.5 9.3 14.95 0.98 2.81 3.54 0.69 0.00 0.00 -8.90
Hercules (NASDAQ:HTGC) 16.40 16.54 7.50 100.8 95.4 105.5 12.3 10.42 1.59 0.85 0.85 0.00 0.00 24.00 10.62
Kayne Ander (NYSE:KED) 27.97 29.33 6.82 83.3 77.8 102.5 7.6 27.84 1.05 4.86 6.65 0.00 0.00 16.28 16.49
Kohlberg (NASDAQ:KCAP) 8.07 8.29 12.06 109.9 99.0 110.1 12.1 8.02 1.03 2.73 2.73 -0.98 -0.75 -10.71 2.56
Main St. (NYSE:MAIN) 32.69 35.11 5.64 98.0 85.3 96.9 10.6 20.01 1.75 7.40 7.91 1.75 3.77 10.00 14.41
Medley Cap (NYSE:MCC) 13.85 14.57 10.16 96.7 94.3 96.7 11.6 12.70 1.15 5.20 5.20 0.00 0.60 2.78 0.79

    Share Price   Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q3-13 Price YTD Percent Change LTM LTM
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 02-18 Yield EPS13 EPS14 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target Div NAV

MCG Capital (NASDAQ:MCGC) 4.40 4.46 11.21 113.6 104.2 118.9 9.7 5.10 0.87 1.36 1.36 -2.04 0.00 0.00 1.59
New Mountain (NYSE:NMFC) 15.04 15.12 8.99 89.5 98.6 97.8 9.5 14.32 1.06 0.53 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56
NGP Capital (NGPC) 7.47 7.65 8.37 100.0 103.2 101.4 7.0 9.22 0.83 2.41 4.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.95
Prospect (NASDAQ:PSEC) 11.22 11.39 11.63 84.3 104.3 90.5 12.4 10.72 1.06 1.52 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.32 -1.47
Pennant Float (NASDAQ:PFLT) 13.73 14.03 7.70 98.2 94.7 92.3 7.7 14.10 1.00 2.18 2.77 0.00 0.00 2.86 0.86
Pennant Cap (NASDAQ:PNNT) 11.60 11.56 9.69 110.9 102.8 110.7 10.7 10.49 1.10 -0.34 2.07 0.00 0.26 0.00 2.64
Saratoga (NYSE:SAR) 15.65 15.93 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.77 0.67 1.79 1.79 4.74 -8.70 na -12.61
Solar Cap (NASDAQ:SLRC) 22.55 22.27 7.18 84.7 90.4 75.6 7.1 22.25 1.00 -1.24 0.53 0.00 0.50 -33.33 -1.98
Solar Senior (NASDAQ:SUNS) 18.22 18.30 7.70 119.5 104.4 116.0 7.7 17.91 1.02 0.44 1.02 0.00 -3.01 0.00 -3.71
Medallion (TAXI) 14.35 14.48 6.35 80.7 78.0 143.6 9.0 10.38 1.39 0.91 0.91 0.00 0.00 4.55 4.22
Triangle Cap (NYSE:TCAP) 27.65 29.19 7.40 96.0 93.9 92.6 13.8 15.94 1.83 5.57 5.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.98
THL Credit (NASDAQ:TCRD) 16.49 15.93 8.54 93.8 95.1 94.1 10.3 13.38 1.19 -3.40 -3.40 0.00 0.00 3.03 1.29
TICC Cap (NASDAQ:TICC) 10.34 10.51 11.04 111.5 102.7 116.5 11.9 9.90 1.06 1.64 1.64 0.00 -0.66 0.00 0.51

Sector Average     8.73 99.6     9.7   1.11 2.20 2.88 0.06 -0.05

With the 10 Treasury at 2.67% and sector average yield (on Q1 dividends) at 8.73% - the spread is 606 bps.
The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 0.45% year to date - with dividends its total return is 2.20%.
Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 2.43%.

Click to enlarge

Dates used to credit dividends:

ACAS : none AINV : 01-05-14 ARCC: 12-30-13 BKCC: 01-02-14 FDUS: 12-19-13 FSC : monthly FULL: monthly
GAIN: monthly GLAD;: monthly GBDC;: 12-26-13 HTGC: 11-24-13 HRZN: monthly KCAP: 01-26-14 KED : 01-30-14
MAIN: monthly MCC: 12-13-13 MCGC: 11-21-13 NGPC: 01-06-14 PFLT: monthly PNNT : 01-01-14 PSEC: monthly
SAR: none SLRC: 01-02-14 SUNS: monthly TAXI : 11-26-13 TCAP: 12-24-13 TICC : 12-30-13 TCRD: 12-30-13
Click to enlarge

Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

Mar 10: 882 June: 649 Sept: 564 Dec: 509
Mar 11: 470 June: 605 Sept: 947 Dec: 873
Mar 12: 718 June: 760 Sept: 732 Dec: 761
Mar 13: 714 June: 683 Sept: 642 Dec: 593
Click to enlarge
BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 02-18

Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.


  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 14 EPS Range
Co. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

ACAS 242 61 62 126 116 83 1.08 -7.94% -28.45% 30.12% 13.00 18.17 13.96 132 102 36.14%
AINV 180 148 126 99 83 83 0.88 -16.16% 0.00% 6.02% 10.89 10.89 10.27 91 85 7.23%
ARCC 142 128 132 156 165 164 1.66 5.77% -0.61% 1.22% 11.22 11.29 11.15 183 152 18.90%
BKCC 176 139 101 100 100 78 0.94 0.00% -22.00% 20.51% 9.61 12.32 10.22 103 85 23.08%
FDUS 0 0 0 163 154 137 1.78 -5.52% -11.04% 29.93% 13.91 15.64 12.03 182 170 8.76%
FSC 130 127 95 101 107 101 1.03 5.94% -5.61% 1.98% 9.10 9.64 9.46 111 98 12.87%
FULL 0 0 0 84 78 77 0.76 -7.14% -1.28% -1.30% 9.95 10.08 10.21 85 74 14.29%
GAIN 79 62 48 73 62 68 0.71 -15.07% 9.68% 4.41% 12.84 11.71 11.21 75 69 8.82%
GBDC 0 0 0 116 115 129 1.37 -0.86% 12.17% 6.20% 16.49 14.70 13.84 153 129 18.60%
GLAD 135 100 84 88 91 88 0.84 3.41% -3.30% -4.55% 10.99 11.36 11.90 85 84 1.14%
HRZN 0 0 0 150 141 139 1.46 -6.00% -1.42% 5.04% 10.36 10.51 10.01 150 137 9.35%
HTGC 123 125 80 91 97 123 1.30 6.59% 26.80% 5.69% 17.05 13.45 12.72 138 114 19.51%
KED 135 127 125 136 189 240 2.57 38.97% 26.98% 7.08% 15.52 12.22 11.41 257 257 0.00%
KCAP 150 104 53 70 89 91 1.01 27.14% 2.25% 10.99% 9.31 9.11 8.21 106 100 6.59%
MAIN 115 90 100 169 201 202 2.32 18.93% 0.50% 14.85% 17.47 17.38 15.13 244 218 12.87%
MCC 0 0 0 56 131 153 1.57 133.93% 16.79% 2.61% 11.12 9.52 9.28 172 150 14.38%

  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios 14 EPS Range
Co. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11-12 12-13 13-14 2012 2013 2014 High Low Range

MCGC 93 60 60 53 25 44 0.48 -52.83% 76.00% 9.09% 17.84 10.14 9.29 56 44 27.27%
NMFC 0 0 0 56 135 152 1.38 141.07% 12.59% -9.21% 11.20 9.95 10.96 145 134 7.24%
NGPC 79 57 54 73 55 64 0.62 -24.66% 16.36% -3.13% 13.91 11.95 12.34 66 55 17.19%
PSEC 191 187 109 109 163 157 1.27 49.54% -3.68% -19.11% 6.99 7.25 8.97 131 122 5.73%
PFLT 0 0 0 5 101 110 1.14 1920.00% 8.91% 3.64% 13.89 12.75 12.31 123 111 10.91%
PNNT 88 109 109 125 108 101 1.09 -13.60% -6.48% 7.92% 10.70 11.45 10.61 113 104 8.91%
SAR 1300 1640 457 215 186 186 1.99 -13.49% 0.00% 6.99% 8.56 8.56 8.01 190 190 0.00%
SLRC 0 200 208 225 220 189 1.77 -2.22% -14.09% -6.35% 10.12 11.78 12.58 189 163 13.76%
SUNS 0 0 0 63 131 118 1.35 107.94% -9.92% 14.41% 13.97 15.51 13.56 144 125 16.10%
TAXI 86 56 64 101 121 114 1.18 19.80% -5.79% 3.51% 11.97 12.70 12.27 119 116 2.63%
TCAP 154 161 158 206 216 225 2.30 4.85% 4.17% 2.22% 13.51 12.97 12.69 239 219 8.89%
TCRD 0 0 0 104 138 145 1.43 32.69% 5.07% -1.38% 11.54 10.99 11.14 146 140 4.14%
TICC 91 49 89 94 112 104 1.13 19.15% -7.14% 8.65% 9.38 10.11 9.30 117 107 9.62%

BDC Average           81.73 3.36 5.45 12.15 11.87 11.21     11.89

Click to enlarge

Total Return Expectations


Co Yield CAGR Total Rtn My RRRs TR - RRR

ACAS 0.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.50 -0.50
AINV 8.85% 0.80% 9.65% 10.50 -0.85
ARCC 8.21% 2.50% 10.71% 10.20 0.51
BKCC 10.82% -1.00% 9.82% 11.00 -1.18
FDUS 7.10% 3.40% 10.50% 12.00 -1.50
FSC 11.80% 0.00% 11.80% 11.00 0.80
FULL 11.91% -3.00% 8.91% 11.00 -2.09
GAIN 7.54% 0.20% 7.74% 11.00 -3.26
GBDC 6.75% 0.50% 7.25% 10.00 -2.75
GLAD 8.40% 0.50% 8.90% 11.00 -2.10
HRZN 9.45% 1.50% 10.95% 12.50 -1.55
HTGC 6.53% 2.00% 8.53% 12.00 -3.47
KED 5.93% 5.50% 11.43% 9.00 2.43
KCAP 13.51% 1.50% 15.01% 12.00 3.01
MAIN 5.30% 6.50% 11.80% 10.50 1.30
MCC 9.88% 1.30% 11.18% 11.50 -0.32
MCGC 11.21% -2.00% 9.21% 12.50 -3.29
NMFC 8.99% 1.00% 9.99% 10.00 -0.01
NGPC 8.37% 0.50% 8.87% 12.50 -3.63
PSEC 11.59% 1.50% 13.09% 12.00 1.09
PFLT 7.48% 2.00% 9.48% 9.00 0.48
PNNT 9.69% 1.00% 10.69% 10.50 0.19
SAR 0.00% -3.00% -3.00% 12.50 -15.50
SLRC 10.78% 1.00% 11.78% 10.70 1.08
SUNS 7.70% 0.50% 8.20% 8.50 -0.30
TAXI 6.08% 3.50% 9.58% 8.00 1.58
TCAP 7.40% 2.50% 9.90% 12.00 -2.10
TCRD 8.54% 1.50% 10.04% 11.50 -1.46
TICC 11.04% 1.20% 12.24% 12.00 0.24

Average 8.92% 1.68% 10.60%
Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am long ARCC, MAIN, PFLT, PNNT.

Additional disclosure: I also own shares in the baby bond of HTGC