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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness. I do not have the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more data than average. I share that data in my... More
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  • BDC Stats Update 02-18-14 0 comments
    Feb 18, 2014 9:43 PM
    BDCs 02-18-14

    Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q1-14 dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. The last four columns measure the percentage change in the 2014 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the Q1-14 dividend from the Q1-13 dividend; and the change in NAV between Q3-12 and Q3-13. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC will pay a special dividend of $0.05/share payable on 3-28-14. TCAP will pay a special dividend of $0.15/share in March and June. FSC and FULL have cut their first quarter dividend.


      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-13PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0102-18YieldEPS13EPS14NIIltmNAVNAVNAVPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivNAV

    American Cap(ACAS)15.6415.080.000.00.00.00.019.540.77-3.58-3.580.000.44na12.36
    Apollo Invest(AINV)8.489.048.8596.490.993.49.88.301.096.608.960.00-0.680.00-1.78
    Ares Capital(ARCC)17.7718.518.2192.791.694.99.416.351.134.164.160.000.000.003.88
    BlackRock(BKCC)9.339.6110.82133.3110.6149.711.19.381.023.005.790.000.000.00-1.78
    Fidus Invest(FDUS)21.7421.427.10110.985.4109.39.515.981.34-1.47-1.470.000.000.004.65
    Fifth St(FSC)9.259.7410.2699.097.098.810.19.850.995.306.110.000.48-13.05-0.71
    Full Circle(FULL)7.047.7610.36104.4105.8109.310.07.481.0410.2311.08-2.56-3.03-12.99-12.10
    Gladstone Inv(GAIN)8.067.967.5488.284.572.57.09.120.87-1.24-0.620.009.380.002.13
    Golub Cap(GBDC)19.1118.966.7599.293.498.98.515.211.25-0.78-0.780.000.000.004.18
    Gladstone Cap(GLAD)9.5710.008.4095.5100.095.49.89.811.024.495.220.000.000.009.85
    Horizon(HRZN)14.2114.619.4599.394.599.59.314.950.982.813.540.690.000.00-8.90
    Hercules(HTGC)16.4016.547.50100.895.4105.512.310.421.590.850.850.000.0024.0010.62
    Kayne Ander(KED)27.9729.336.8283.377.8102.57.627.841.054.866.650.000.0016.2816.49
    Kohlberg(KCAP)8.078.2912.06109.999.0110.112.18.021.032.732.73-0.98-0.75-10.712.56
    Main St.(MAIN)32.6935.115.6498.085.396.910.620.011.757.407.911.753.7710.0014.41
    Medley Cap(MCC)13.8514.5710.1696.794.396.711.612.701.155.205.200.000.602.780.79

      Share Price Div/Div/Div/Div/Q3-13PriceYTD Percent ChangeLTMLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0102-18YieldEPS13EPS14NIIltmNAVNAVNAVPricePr+DivEPSTargetDivNAV

    MCG Capital(MCGC)4.404.4611.21113.6104.2118.99.75.100.871.361.36-2.040.000.001.59
    New Mountain(NMFC)15.0415.128.9989.598.697.89.514.321.060.530.530.000.000.001.56
    NGP Capital(NGPC)7.477.658.37100.0103.2101.47.09.220.832.414.550.000.000.00-4.95
    Prospect(PSEC)11.2211.3911.6384.3104.390.512.410.721.061.522.400.000.000.32-1.47
    Pennant Float(PFLT)13.7314.037.7098.294.792.37.714.101.002.182.770.000.002.860.86
    Pennant Cap(PNNT)11.6011.569.69110.9102.8110.710.710.491.10-0.342.070.000.260.002.64
    Saratoga(SAR)15.6515.930.000.00.00.00.023.770.671.791.794.74-8.70na-12.61
    Solar Cap(SLRC)22.5522.277.1884.790.475.67.122.251.00-1.240.530.000.50-33.33-1.98
    Solar Senior(SUNS)18.2218.307.70119.5104.4116.07.717.911.020.441.020.00-3.010.00-3.71
    Medallion(TAXI)14.3514.486.3580.778.0143.69.010.381.390.910.910.000.004.554.22
    Triangle Cap(TCAP)27.6529.197.4096.093.992.613.815.941.835.575.570.000.000.003.98
    THL Credit(TCRD)16.4915.938.5493.895.194.110.313.381.19-3.40-3.400.000.003.031.29
    TICC Cap(TICC)10.3410.5111.04111.5102.7116.511.99.901.061.641.640.00-0.660.000.51

    Sector Average  8.7399.6  9.7 1.112.202.880.06-0.05

    With the 10 Treasury at 2.67% and sector average yield (on Q1 dividends) at 8.73% - the spread is 606 bps.
    The cap weighted ETF BDCS is up 0.45% year to date - with dividends its total return is 2.20%.
    Sector yield, Dividend/NAV and Dividend/EPS ratio filter out the zero payout ACAS and SAR.
    Weeding out ACAS and SAR, the average share price gain is 2.43%.

    Dates used to credit dividends:

    ACAS : noneAINV : 01-05-14ARCC: 12-30-13BKCC: 01-02-14FDUS: 12-19-13FSC : monthlyFULL: monthly
    GAIN: monthlyGLAD;: monthlyGBDC;: 12-26-13HTGC: 11-24-13HRZN: monthlyKCAP: 01-26-14KED : 01-30-14
    MAIN: monthlyMCC: 12-13-13MCGC: 11-21-13NGPC: 01-06-14PFLT: monthlyPNNT : 01-01-14PSEC: monthly
    SAR: noneSLRC: 01-02-14SUNS: monthlyTAXI : 11-26-13TCAP: 12-24-13TICC : 12-30-13TCRD: 12-30-13

    Historical BDC Yield to 10 Year Treasury Spreads for the sector:

    Mar 10: 882June: 649Sept: 564Dec: 509
    Mar 11: 470June: 605Sept: 947Dec: 873
    Mar 12: 718June: 760Sept: 732Dec: 761
    Mar 13: 714June: 683Sept: 642Dec: 593
    BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 02-18

    Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2014 on or before calendar Q4-13 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. That average is currently inflated by almost 300 bps due to atypical spreads in the projections for ACAS and GAIN. With the exception of KED, all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance.


     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range
    Co.200820092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    ACAS2426162126116831.08-7.94%-28.45%30.12%13.0018.1713.9613210236.14%
    AINV1801481269983830.88-16.16%0.00%6.02%10.8910.8910.2791857.23%
    ARCC1421281321561651641.665.77%-0.61%1.22%11.2211.2911.1518315218.90%
    BKCC176139101100100780.940.00%-22.00%20.51%9.6112.3210.221038523.08%
    FDUS0001631541371.78-5.52%-11.04%29.93%13.9115.6412.031821708.76%
    FSC130127951011071011.035.94%-5.61%1.98%9.109.649.461119812.87%
    FULL0008478770.76-7.14%-1.28%-1.30%9.9510.0810.21857414.29%
    GAIN7962487362680.71-15.07%9.68%4.41%12.8411.7111.2175698.82%
    GBDC0001161151291.37-0.86%12.17%6.20%16.4914.7013.8415312918.60%
    GLAD135100848891880.843.41%-3.30%-4.55%10.9911.3611.9085841.14%
    HRZN0001501411391.46-6.00%-1.42%5.04%10.3610.5110.011501379.35%
    HTGC1231258091971231.306.59%26.80%5.69%17.0513.4512.7213811419.51%
    KED1351271251361892402.5738.97%26.98%7.08%15.5212.2211.412572570.00%
    KCAP150104537089911.0127.14%2.25%10.99%9.319.118.211061006.59%
    MAIN115901001692012022.3218.93%0.50%14.85%17.4717.3815.1324421812.87%
    MCC000561311531.57133.93%16.79%2.61%11.129.529.2817215014.38%

     Earnings / ShareEarn. GrowthP/E Ratios14 EPS Range
    Co.200820092010201120122013201411-1212-1313-14201220132014HighLowRange

    MCGC9360605325440.48-52.83%76.00%9.09%17.8410.149.29564427.27%
    NMFC000561351521.38141.07%12.59%-9.21%11.209.9510.961451347.24%
    NGPC7957547355640.62-24.66%16.36%-3.13%13.9111.9512.34665517.19%
    PSEC1911871091091631571.2749.54%-3.68%-19.11%6.997.258.971311225.73%
    PFLT00051011101.141920.00%8.91%3.64%13.8912.7512.3112311110.91%
    PNNT881091091251081011.09-13.60%-6.48%7.92%10.7011.4510.611131048.91%
    SAR130016404572151861861.99-13.49%0.00%6.99%8.568.568.011901900.00%
    SLRC02002082252201891.77-2.22%-14.09%-6.35%10.1211.7812.5818916313.76%
    SUNS000631311181.35107.94%-9.92%14.41%13.9715.5113.5614412516.10%
    TAXI8656641011211141.1819.80%-5.79%3.51%11.9712.7012.271191162.63%
    TCAP1541611582062162252.304.85%4.17%2.22%13.5112.9712.692392198.89%
    TCRD0001041381451.4332.69%5.07%-1.38%11.5410.9911.141461404.14%
    TICC914989941121041.1319.15%-7.14%8.65%9.3810.119.301171079.62%

    BDC Average     81.733.365.4512.1511.8711.21  11.89

    Total Return Expectations


    CoYieldCAGRTotal RtnMy RRRsTR - RRR

    ACAS0.00%12.00%12.00%12.50-0.50
    AINV8.85%0.80%9.65%10.50-0.85
    ARCC8.21%2.50%10.71%10.200.51
    BKCC10.82%-1.00%9.82%11.00-1.18
    FDUS7.10%3.40%10.50%12.00-1.50
    FSC11.80%0.00%11.80%11.000.80
    FULL11.91%-3.00%8.91%11.00-2.09
    GAIN7.54%0.20%7.74%11.00-3.26
    GBDC6.75%0.50%7.25%10.00-2.75
    GLAD8.40%0.50%8.90%11.00-2.10
    HRZN9.45%1.50%10.95%12.50-1.55
    HTGC6.53%2.00%8.53%12.00-3.47
    KED5.93%5.50%11.43%9.002.43
    KCAP13.51%1.50%15.01%12.003.01
    MAIN5.30%6.50%11.80%10.501.30
    MCC9.88%1.30%11.18%11.50-0.32
    MCGC11.21%-2.00%9.21%12.50-3.29
    NMFC8.99%1.00%9.99%10.00-0.01
    NGPC8.37%0.50%8.87%12.50-3.63
    PSEC11.59%1.50%13.09%12.001.09
    PFLT7.48%2.00%9.48%9.000.48
    PNNT9.69%1.00%10.69%10.500.19
    SAR0.00%-3.00%-3.00%12.50-15.50
    SLRC10.78%1.00%11.78%10.701.08
    SUNS7.70%0.50%8.20%8.50-0.30
    TAXI6.08%3.50%9.58%8.001.58
    TCAP7.40%2.50%9.90%12.00-2.10
    TCRD8.54%1.50%10.04%11.50-1.46
    TICC11.04%1.20%12.24%12.000.24

    Average8.92%1.68%10.60%

    Disclosure: I am long ARCC, MAIN, PFLT, PNNT.

    Additional disclosure: I also own shares in the baby bond of HTGC

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