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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Health Care REIT Stats 2-28-14 0 comments
    Mar 2, 2014 6:31 PM

    Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - SBRA an increase to $0.36 - MPW increased to $0.21/share for the dividend to be paid in January 2014. Yahoo shows a higher div for DOC - but I can not find a confirming press release. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. VTR has atypically had two dividend increases in the LTM. NHI has already announced an increase in its Q2-14 dividend.


     Share Price2014 FFO Estimate Div/Percent ChangeLTM
    Company_name_and_ticker1-0102-281-0102-28YieldFFOPricePr+Div14 FFOTargetDiv

    Aviv REIT(NYSE:AVIV)23.7025.361.851.815.6879.567.008.52-2.160.000.00
    Physicians Realty(NYSE:DOC)12.2413.390.980.956.7294.749.4011.23-3.060.820.00
    Health Care REIT(NYSE:HCN)53.5758.744.004.025.4179.109.6511.130.50-5.213.92
    Health Care Prop(NYSE:HCP)36.3238.773.063.025.6272.196.758.25-1.31-5.453.81
    Health Care Realty(NYSE:HR)21.3123.971.411.445.0183.3312.4813.892.13-4.500.00
    Health Care Trust(NYSE:HTA)9.8411.230.690.725.1279.8614.1315.594.350.000.00
    LTC Property(NYSE:LTC)35.3937.682.652.635.4177.576.477.43-0.750.009.68
    Med Prop Trust(NYSE:MPW)12.2213.191.121.126.3775.007.949.660.00-0.685.00
    Nat'l Health Inv(NYSE:NHI)56.1061.704.134.084.7672.069.9811.29-1.211.279.70
    Omega Health(NYSE:OHI)29.8031.962.732.746.1371.537.258.890.37-4.628.89
    Sabra Health Care(NASDAQ:SBRA)26.1428.472.202.295.0662.888.9110.294.090.005.88
    Senior Housing(NYSE:SNH)22.2322.301.741.747.0089.660.312.070.00-2.950.00
    Universal Health(NYSE:UHT)40.0642.582.802.835.8788.346.296.291.070.000.81
    Ventas(NYSE:VTR)57.2862.434.364.374.6566.368.998.990.23-6.558.21

    Average     5.6378.018.259.540.30-1.994.66

    Dividend dates are:

    AVIV: 01-17-14DOC: 02-06-14HCN: 02-19-14HCP: 02-24-14HR : 02-27-14HTA: 04-02-14LTC: monthly
    MPW: 04-10-14NHI: 05-08-14OHI: 02-17-14SBRA: 02-27-14SNH: 02-20-14UHT: 12-30-13VTR: 03-27-14

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 5.33%June: 6.24%Sept: 5.90%Dec: 5.77%
    Mar 2008: 5.84%June: 6.33%Sept: 5.25%Dec: 6.89%
    Mar 2009: 9.11%June: 7.88%Sept: 6.67%Dec: 6.31%
    Mar 2010: 6.67%June: 6.09%Sept: 5.62%Dec: 5.75%
    Mar 2011: 5.48%June: 5.64%Sept: 6.02%Dec: 5.34%
    Mar 2012: 5.16%June: 4.84%Sept: 4.89%Dec: 4.69%
    Mar 2013: 4.66%June: 5.09%Sept: 5.49%Dec: 6.02%
    Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 02-28

    The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2013 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79 and the 2014 ratio fell from 13.90 to 13.80. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65%.


     FFO / Share% FFO GrowthPrice/FFO14 FFO Range
    Co.20102011201220132014201512-1313-1414-15201320142015HighLowRange

    AVIV0.000.000.001.261.811.99na43.659.9420.1314.0112.7419015220.99%
    DOC0.000.000.000.260.951.16na265.3822.1151.5014.0911.541068324.21%
    HCN3.133.413.513.364.024.23-4.2719.645.2217.4814.6113.894103973.23%
    HCP2.192.692.763.013.023.149.060.333.9712.8812.8412.353102964.64%
    HR1.291.151.311.321.441.560.769.098.3318.1616.6515.371481396.25%
    HTA0.380.510.610.640.720.774.9212.506.9417.5515.6014.5875706.94%
    LTC1.882.152.262.372.632.834.8710.977.6015.9014.3313.312692584.18%
    MPW0.660.710.900.961.121.196.6716.676.2513.7411.7811.081141094.46%
    NHI2.762.883.183.554.084.2811.6414.934.9017.3815.1214.424144022.94%
    OHI1.611.892.192.532.742.8015.538.302.1912.6311.6611.412792703.28%
    SBRA0.001.311.411.842.292.4330.5024.466.1115.4712.4311.722412199.61%
    SNH1.701.731.751.691.741.83-3.432.965.1713.2012.8212.1918115415.52%
    UHT2.612.572.842.752.832.91-3.172.912.8315.4815.0514.632902900.00%
    VTR2.853.373.804.144.374.598.955.565.0315.0814.2913.604454205.72%

    Average     6.8331.246.9018.3313.9513.06

    My "historical" stats in 2013 was distorted by the inclusion on newbies AVIV and DOC - which sold at very high price/FFO metrics based on their 2013 FFO projections. Now that the 2014 price/FFO ratios for those two are in line with the sector, the "sector" average price/FFO is a better number. At the current "13.95" - the price/FFO indicates that this sector is under valued.

    Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 15.23June: 13.19Sept: 14.18Dec: 14.55
    Mar 2008: 14.17June: 13.27Sept: 15.95Dec: 12.38
    Mar 2009: 9.42June: 10.84Sept: 12.61Dec: 13.90
    Mar 2010: 12.61June: 14.10Sept: 15.45Dec: 15.41
    Mar 2011: 15.07June: 14.62Sept: 12.91Dec: 14.95
    Mar 2012: 14.21June: 15.25Sept: 15.05Dec: 15.82
    Mar 2013: 17.18June: 15.84Sept: 15.21Dec: 16.67

    Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.

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