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MLP Midstream Update 2-25-14

MLP Midstream 02-28-14

The consensus DCFs for 2013 and 2014 were updated 01-18-14 for the full sector. The CAGR projections were updated 1-31-14 for the full sector. I have updated DCFs and CAGRs for some individual MLPs that have reported their Q4-13 numbers. Yields are based on the Q1-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q1-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


    Current Distrib/ Q1 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access (NYSE:ACMP) 56.45 0.5550 3.93 68.94 67.48 -0.23 0.75 1.24 8.52 0.00 23.33 0.00
American (NYSE:AMID) 23.52 0.4525 7.70 87.44 79.04 -13.15 -11.48 0.00 2.00 0.00 4.62 0.00
Atlas Pipelines (NYSE:APL) 30.74 0.6200 8.07 84.07 78.23 -12.30 -10.53 -6.67 -12.92 0.00 6.90 0.00
BlueKnight (NASDAQ:BKEP) 9.03 0.1264 5.60 49.09 49.09 6.11 7.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.91 0.00
Buckeye (NYSE:BPL) 73.23 1.0875 5.94 92.55 84.63 3.13 4.66 0.00 4.93 0.00 4.82 0.00
Boardwalk (NYSE:BWP) 12.31 0.1000 3.25 21.86 21.16 -51.76 -51.37 -28.10 -50.23 -7.58 -81.22 0.00
Crestwood (NYSE:CMLP) 22.39 0.4100 7.32 88.65 81.19 -10.04 -8.40 8.93 0.00 0.00 6.49 0.00
DCP Partners (NYSE:DPM) 48.80 0.7325 6.00 89.06 78.76 -3.08 -1.62 1.67 0.18 0.00 6.16 0.00
El Paso (NYSE:EPB) 30.05 0.6500 8.65 100.78 91.55 -16.53 -14.72 -2.91 -8.21 0.00 6.56 0.00
Enbridge (NYSE:EEP) 27.52 0.5435 7.90 102.55 96.19 -7.87 -6.05 -3.57 -0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Enterprise (NYSE:EPD) 67.11 0.7000 4.17 67.15 63.35 1.22 2.28 2.01 2.62 0.48 6.06 0.00
Energy Trans (NYSE:ETP) 55.53 0.9200 6.63 78.46 85.78 -3.00 -1.40 2.88 1.15 0.00 2.94 0.00
EQT Mdstrm (NYSE:EQM) 65.91 0.4600 2.79 59.35 50.83 12.11 12.89 -0.76 15.50 0.00 31.43 0.00
Exterran (EXLP) 30.00 0.5325 7.10 81.61 88.38 -0.76 1.00 0.79 3.42 0.00 3.90 0.00
Genesis (NYSE:GEL) 55.00 0.5350 3.89 72.79 63.69 4.62 5.64 -1.60 2.89 0.00 10.31 0.00
Holly (NYSE:HEP) 33.60 0.5000 5.95 91.32 81.30 3.93 5.47 -1.69 -0.59 0.00 6.38 0.00
Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMP) 74.27 1.3600 7.32 96.45 93.15 -7.92 -6.24 -1.47 -2.71 -1.57 5.43 0.00
Magellan (NYSE:MMP) 67.67 0.5850 3.46 76.22 68.22 6.95 7.88 3.96 13.91 0.00 17.00 0.00
Mark West (NYSE:MWE) 63.85 0.8600 5.39 84.31 72.42 -3.45 -2.15 -3.09 -1.07 -5.99 4.88 -19.54
Targa (NYSE:NGLS) 53.69 0.7475 5.57 84.46 77.86 2.66 4.09 -4.64 5.67 0.85 9.93 0.00
NuStar (NYSE:NS) 49.92 1.0950 8.77 111.73 97.55 -2.10 0.05 -0.54 2.70 2.89 0.00 0.00
OneOK (NYSE:OKS) 53.11 0.7300 5.50 87.43 75.84 0.87 2.26 0.00 4.59 0.00 2.82 0.00
Oil Tanking (NYSE:OILT) 69.21 0.4700 2.72 66.67 65.96 11.50 12.26 0.33 5.46 0.00 20.51 0.00
Plains All-Am (NYSE:PAA) 54.17 0.6150 4.54 78.59 80.39 4.64 5.82 -1.87 0.48 0.00 9.33 0.00
Regency (NYSE:RGP) 26.25 0.4750 7.24 91.79 92.23 -0.04 1.77 0.00 0.86 0.00 3.26 0.00
Spectra (NYSE:SEP) 47.72 0.5463 4.58 84.70 85.69 5.23 6.43 -1.56 0.15 0.00 10.36 0.00
Sunco (NYSE:SXL) 82.74 0.6625 3.20 57.48 59.28 9.62 10.50 -1.33 11.42 0.00 21.56 0.00
TCPipelines (NYSE:TCP) 46.62 0.8100 6.95 88.77 84.60 -3.74 -2.06 0.00 -0.88 -1.35 3.85 0.00
Tesoro (NYSE:TLLP) 60.20 0.5650 3.75 73.62 69.54 15.02 16.10 0.00 1.95 0.00 19.70 0.00
Transmontaigne (NYSE:TLP) 41.30 0.6500 6.30 74.29 73.65 -2.82 -1.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56 0.00
Western (NYSE:WES) 63.29 0.6000 3.79 78.69 72.51 2.59 3.57 -2.16 0.20 0.00 15.38 0.00
Williams (NYSE:WPZ) 49.61 0.8925 7.20 100.00 92.73 -2.46 -0.70 -0.47 -1.03 0.00 7.85 0.00
Cross-Tex (XTEX) 30.89 0.3600 4.66 91.72 76.60 11.92 13.22 0.00 7.00 0.00 9.09 0.00

Pipeline Average     5.63 80.68 75.72 -1.19 0.22 -1.23 0.53 0.63 6.40  
Shipping
Navios (NYSE:NMM) 17.10 0.4425 10.35 101.14 98.33 -10.56 -8.25 6.85 8.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martin (NASDAQ:MMLP) 42.07 0.7850 7.46 90.23 73.02 -1.71 0.13 0.00 -1.20 0.00 1.95 0.00
TeeKay (NYSE:TGP) 41.67 0.6918 6.64 93.80 80.44 -2.44 -0.82 2.80 -1.61 0.00 2.49 0.00

Shipping Average     8.15 98.02   -4.90 -2.98 3.22 1.80    

MidStream Average   5.84 81.88 76.41 -1.50 -0.05 -0.86 0.64    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -1.00% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -1.10% and with dividends is -1.10%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 0.87% and with dividends is 0.87%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 1.87% and with dividend is 1.87%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.65% & the sector average yield [on Q1 distrib's] at 5.84% - the spread is 319 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.73% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 11 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.76% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 8 bps.

Click to enlarge

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q1-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distribution
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR /14 DCF
Large Cap Midstream
Buckeye BPL 5.94% 4.00% 9.94% BBB 2.30 10.40 -0.46 2.6 4.46 92.55
Boardwalk BWP 3.25% 1.00% 4.25% BBB- 3.20 10.70 -6.45 3.1 7.45 21.86
El Paso EPB 8.65% 2.00% 10.65% BBB- 1.20 10.30 0.35 3.1 1.65 100.78
Enbridge EEP 7.90% 1.50% 9.40% BBB 2.40 10.50 -1.10 2.9 2.60 102.55
Enterprise EPD 4.17% 6.70% 10.87% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 1.17 1.6 5.53 67.15
Energy Trans ETP 6.63% 3.50% 10.13% BBB- 3.00 10.70 -0.57 2.3 4.07 78.46
Kinder Morgan KMP 7.32% 4.70% 12.02% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.02 2.5 2.68 96.45
Magellan MMP 3.46% 8.80% 12.26% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.26 2.4 6.54 76.22
NuStar NS 8.77% 1.50% 10.27% BB+ 4.00 11.50 -1.23 3.1 2.73 111.73
OneOK OKS 5.50% 6.70% 12.20% BBB 1.50 10.50 1.70 2.1 5.00 87.43
Plains All-Am PAA 4.54% 8.30% 12.84% BBB 1.00 10.00 2.84 1.8 5.46 78.59
Williams WPZ 7.20% 5.40% 12.60% BBB 3.00 11.00 1.60 2.2 3.80 100.00

Average   6.11% 4.51% 10.62%         2.48

Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Small Cap Midstream
BlueKnight BKEP 5.60% 8.50% 14.10% none 4.00 13.50 0.60 3.3 7.90 49.09
Genesis GEL 3.89% 8.60% 12.49% BB- 2.70 11.80 0.69 2.2 7.91 72.79
Holly HEP 5.95% 6.00% 11.95% BB 1.30 11.20 0.75 3.1 5.25 91.32
Oil Tanking OILT 2.72% 7.70% 10.42% none 2.00 10.50 -0.08 2.4 7.78 66.67
Spectra SEP 4.58% 6.50% 11.08% BBB 2.20 10.50 0.58 3.1 5.92 84.70
Sunco SXL 3.20% 8.90% 12.10% BBB- 1.00 10.00 2.10 2.6 6.80 57.48
TCPipelines TCP 6.95% 3.00% 9.95% BBB 1.00 10.00 -0.05 3.6 3.05 88.77
Tesoro TLLP 3.75% 8.50% 12.25% BB- 1.20 10.00 2.25 1.8 6.25 73.62
Transmontaigne TLP 6.30% 3.00% 9.30% none 1.20 10.00 -0.70 1.9 3.70 74.29

Average   4.77% 6.74% 11.52%         2.67

Company Q4-13 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Gathering & Processing
Access ACMP 3.93% 9.60% 13.53% BB- 1.50 12.00 1.53 1.7 8.07 68.94
American AMID 7.70% 4.50% 12.20% none 5.00 12.50 -0.30 2.5 4.80 87.44
Atlas Pipelines APL 8.07% 7.00% 15.07% B+ 5.00 13.50 1.57 1.8 5.43 84.07
Crestwood CMLP 7.32% 4.80% 12.12% B- 3.70 12.50 -0.38 1.9 5.18 88.65
DCP Partners DPM 6.00% 6.70% 12.70% BBB- 2.70 11.50 1.20 1.9 5.50 89.06
EQT Mdstrm EQM 2.79% 9.50% 12.29% none 2.00 11.20 1.09 1.7 8.41 59.35
Exterran EXLP 7.10% 3.00% 10.10% B- 2.20 11.50 -1.40 2.6 4.40 81.61
Mark West MWE 5.39% 7.00% 12.39% BB 3.20 12.50 -0.11 1.5 7.11 84.31
Targa NGLS 5.57% 6.90% 12.47% BB 1.70 12.20 0.27 2.3 6.63 84.46
Regency RGP 7.24% 3.80% 11.04% BB- 3.20 12.00 -0.96 2.8 4.76 91.79
Western WES 3.79% 9.10% 12.89% BBB- 1.70 11.20 1.69 1.9 7.41 78.69
Cross-Tex XTEX 4.66% 8.50% 13.16% B+ 4.00 13.50 -0.34 2.4 8.84 91.72

Average   5.80% 6.70% 12.50%         2.08

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