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MLP E&P (Exploration And Production) Update 2-14-14

  12-31-13 Current Distrib/ Q1 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
  Price Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

ARP 20.48 21.66 0.5800 10.71 86.57 78.64 5.76 7.66 0.00 1.42 -1.11 20.83 0.00
BBEP 20.34 19.99 0.4925 9.85 85.28 80.41 -1.72 -0.10 0.00 0.77 2.67 4.79 0.00
EROC 5.95 4.85 0.1500 12.37 95.24 100.00 -18.49 -15.97 0.00 -2.37 -8.70 -31.82 0.00
EVEP 33.93 35.08 0.7710 8.79 86.39 79.90 3.39 5.66 -0.76 -0.78 5.93 0.52 0.00
LINE 30.79 31.87 0.7248 9.10 81.21 79.65 3.51 5.08 1.39 0.50 -5.80 -0.03 0.00
LGCY 28.16 26.40 0.5900 8.94 84.59 74.68 -6.25 -4.15 2.38 -2.48 -1.41 3.51 0.00
LRE 17.03 17.10 0.4900 11.46 87.50 78.40 0.41 3.29 0.00 0.73 -7.82 2.08 0.00
MCEP 22.85 23.57 0.5150 8.74 62.42 63.38 3.15 5.40 -0.48 0.00 -0.90 4.04 0.00
MEMP 21.94 22.34 0.5500 9.85 75.86 81.78 1.82 4.33 -0.92 1.65 -0.34 8.37 0.00
QRE 17.12 17.54 0.4875 11.12 93.30 96.06 2.45 4.36 0.77 -2.00 -0.95 0.00 0.00
VNR 29.52 29.86 0.6225 8.34 77.33 71.55 1.15 2.56 -0.76 3.74 0.31 2.47 0.00

The E&P Average   9.93 83.24 80.41 -0.44 1.65 0.15 0.11 -1.65 1.34  

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* Distribution growth is year over year - or Q4-13 dividend by Q4-12 Distribution dates used were:

ARP : monthly BBEP : monthly EROC : 02-14 EVEP : 02-14 LINE: monthly LGCY: 02-14
LRE : 02-14 MCEP: 02-12 MEMP: 02-14 QRE: monthly VNR: monthly
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Historical MLP E&P Month-End Yields:

Jan 09: 15.90% Feb: 18.45% Mar: 19.60% April: 15.48% May: 15.24% June: 10.58%
July 09: 9.39% Aug: 7.75% Sept: 7.10% Oct : 7.49% Nov: 7.32% Dec: 6.47%
Jan 10: 6.43% Feb: 6.30% Mar: 7.04% April: 6.68% May: 8.90% June: 8.53%
July 10: 7.62% Aug: 7.90% Sept: 7.48% Oct : 7.10% Nov: 7.06% Dec: 6.59%
Jan 11: 6.31% Feb: 6.17% Mar: 6.01% April: 5.78% May: 6.27% June: 6.37%
July 11: 6.37% Aug: 6.68% Sept: 7.17% Oct : 6.50% Nov: 6.80% Dec: 6.42%
Jan 12: 6.42% Feb: 7.41% Mar: 7.41% April: 7.50% May: 8.82% June: 8.70%
July 12: 8.18% Aug: 7.94% Sept: 7.70% Oct : 7.59% Nov: 8.24% Dec: 8.73%
Jan 13: Feb: Mar: April: May: June: 8.64%
July 13: 8.68% Aug: 10.19%* Sept: 9.80% Oct : 9.89% Nov: 10.12% Dec: 9.79%
Jan 14: 9.76% Feb:9.93% Mar: April: May: June: 8.64%
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* 1st month where EROC replaced CEP. Oct was 1st month PSE was dropped.
Sector average yield stats are not that useful due to several E&Ps [like ATN, BBEP, CEP and QELP] eliminating distributions in 2008 and 2009, and with BBEP re-starting distributions in 2010. In February of 2012, LRE, MCEP, MEMP and QRE were added to the sector, dropping the influence of zero distribution paying CEP had on the sector average. Due to those distortions, the month end yield history on LINE is also included below as a representative of sector yields for each time period.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q1-14 Consensus Total Bonds My Tot Rtn Consensus Pr Impl
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR

Atlas ARP 10.71% 4.00% 14.71% NR 13.50 1.21 2.4 2.79
BreitBurn BBEP 9.85% 2.50% 12.35% B 12.70 -0.35 1.6 2.85
EagleRock EROC 12.37% 0.10% 12.47% B 12.70 -0.23 2.5 0.33
EV Energy EVEP 8.79% 4.00% 12.79% B- 13.00 -0.21 2.1 4.21
Linn Energy LINE 9.10% 4.00% 13.10% B 13.00 0.10 2.4 3.90
Legacy LGCY 8.94% 2.70% 11.64% B- 12.70 -1.06 2.0 3.76
LRR Energy LRE 11.46% 2.50% 13.96% NR 13.50 0.46 2.3 2.04
Mid-Con MCEP 8.74% 3.50% 12.24% NR 13.50 -1.26 1.8 4.76
Memorial MEMP 9.85% 4.00% 13.85% B- 13.00 0.85 1.7 3.15
QR Energy QRE 11.12% 1.00% 12.12% B- 13.00 -0.88 2.1 1.88
Vanguard VNR 8.34% 3.70% 12.04% B 12.70 -0.66 1.9 4.36

Average   9.93% 2.91% 12.84%       2.07

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