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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I lack the usual attributes that qualifies me to write on investing. I am a retail investor. But I do gather, process and analyze significantly more... More
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  • MLP E&P (Exploration And Production) Update 2-14-14 0 comments
    Mar 2, 2014 7:00 PM
     12-31-13CurrentDistrib/Q1 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change
     PricePriceQuarterYield20142015PricePr+DistEPSTargetDCFDist*cagr

    ARP20.4821.660.580010.7186.5778.645.767.660.001.42-1.1120.830.00
    BBEP20.3419.990.49259.8585.2880.41-1.72-0.100.000.772.674.790.00
    EROC5.954.850.150012.3795.24100.00-18.49-15.970.00-2.37-8.70-31.820.00
    EVEP33.9335.080.77108.7986.3979.903.395.66-0.76-0.785.930.520.00
    LINE30.7931.870.72489.1081.2179.653.515.081.390.50-5.80-0.030.00
    LGCY28.1626.400.59008.9484.5974.68-6.25-4.152.38-2.48-1.413.510.00
    LRE17.0317.100.490011.4687.5078.400.413.290.000.73-7.822.080.00
    MCEP22.8523.570.51508.7462.4263.383.155.40-0.480.00-0.904.040.00
    MEMP21.9422.340.55009.8575.8681.781.824.33-0.921.65-0.348.370.00
    QRE17.1217.540.487511.1293.3096.062.454.360.77-2.00-0.950.000.00
    VNR29.5229.860.62258.3477.3371.551.152.56-0.763.740.312.470.00

    The E&P Average 9.9383.2480.41-0.441.650.150.11-1.651.34 

    * Distribution growth is year over year - or Q4-13 dividend by Q4-12 Distribution dates used were:

    ARP : monthlyBBEP : monthlyEROC : 02-14EVEP : 02-14LINE: monthlyLGCY: 02-14
    LRE : 02-14MCEP: 02-12MEMP: 02-14QRE: monthlyVNR: monthly

    Historical MLP E&P Month-End Yields:

    Jan 09: 15.90%Feb: 18.45%Mar: 19.60%April: 15.48%May: 15.24%June: 10.58%
    July 09: 9.39%Aug: 7.75%Sept: 7.10%Oct : 7.49%Nov: 7.32%Dec: 6.47%
    Jan 10: 6.43%Feb: 6.30%Mar: 7.04%April: 6.68%May: 8.90%June: 8.53%
    July 10: 7.62%Aug: 7.90%Sept: 7.48%Oct : 7.10%Nov: 7.06%Dec: 6.59%
    Jan 11: 6.31%Feb: 6.17%Mar: 6.01%April: 5.78%May: 6.27%June: 6.37%
    July 11: 6.37%Aug: 6.68%Sept: 7.17%Oct : 6.50%Nov: 6.80%Dec: 6.42%
    Jan 12: 6.42%Feb: 7.41%Mar: 7.41%April: 7.50%May: 8.82%June: 8.70%
    July 12: 8.18%Aug: 7.94%Sept: 7.70%Oct : 7.59%Nov: 8.24%Dec: 8.73%
    Jan 13:Feb:Mar:April:May:June: 8.64%
    July 13: 8.68%Aug: 10.19%*Sept: 9.80%Oct : 9.89%Nov: 10.12%Dec: 9.79%
    Jan 14: 9.76%Feb:9.93%Mar:April:May:June: 8.64%

    * 1st month where EROC replaced CEP. Oct was 1st month PSE was dropped.
    Sector average yield stats are not that useful due to several E&Ps [like ATN, BBEP, CEP and QELP] eliminating distributions in 2008 and 2009, and with BBEP re-starting distributions in 2010. In February of 2012, LRE, MCEP, MEMP and QRE were added to the sector, dropping the influence of zero distribution paying CEP had on the sector average. Due to those distortions, the month end yield history on LINE is also included below as a representative of sector yields for each time period.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ1-14ConsensusTotalBondsMyTot RtnConsensusPr Impl
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR

    AtlasARP10.71%4.00%14.71%NR13.501.212.42.79
    BreitBurnBBEP9.85%2.50%12.35%B12.70-0.351.62.85
    EagleRockEROC12.37%0.10%12.47%B12.70-0.232.50.33
    EV EnergyEVEP8.79%4.00%12.79%B-13.00-0.212.14.21
    Linn EnergyLINE9.10%4.00%13.10%B13.000.102.43.90
    LegacyLGCY8.94%2.70%11.64%B-12.70-1.062.03.76
    LRR EnergyLRE11.46%2.50%13.96%NR13.500.462.32.04
    Mid-ConMCEP8.74%3.50%12.24%NR13.50-1.261.84.76
    MemorialMEMP9.85%4.00%13.85%B-13.000.851.73.15
    QR EnergyQRE11.12%1.00%12.12%B-13.00-0.882.11.88
    VanguardVNR8.34%3.70%12.04%B12.70-0.661.94.36

    Average 9.93%2.91%12.84%   2.07

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