After two weeks of trying to write an article on regional banks that was in compliance with my goals of clarity, brevity and certainty - I found that I was incapable of meeting those objectives. I am moving on the Health Care REITs. I gathered some of the data tonight, and I am sharing the year to date and price/FFO data below.
Health Care Update for Q1-14Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - SBRA an increase to $0.36 - MPW increased to $0.21/share for the dividend to be paid in January 2014. Yahoo shows a higher div for DOC - but I can not find a confirming press release. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. VTR has atypically had two dividend increases in the LTM. NHI has already announced an increase in its Q2-14 dividend.
| Share Price | 2014 FFO Estimate | Div/ | Percent Change | LTM | ||||||||
| Company_name_and_ticker | 1-01 | 03-10 | 1-01 | 03-10 | Yield | FFO | Price | Pr+Div | 14 FFO | Target | Div | |
| Aviv REIT | (AVIV) | 23.70 | 24.92 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 5.78 | 79.12 | 5.15 | 6.67 | -1.62 | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| Physicians Realty | (DOC) | 12.24 | 13.10 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 6.87 | 94.74 | 7.03 | 8.86 | -3.06 | 0.82 | 0.00 |
| Health Care REIT | (HCN) | 53.57 | 58.09 | 4.00 | 4.02 | 5.47 | 79.10 | 8.44 | 9.92 | 0.50 | -4.97 | 3.92 |
| Health Care Prop | (HCP) | 36.32 | 37.19 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 5.86 | 72.19 | 2.40 | 3.90 | -1.31 | -5.45 | 3.81 |
| Health Care Realty | (HR) | 21.31 | 23.86 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 5.03 | 82.76 | 11.97 | 13.37 | 2.84 | -3.81 | 0.00 |
| Health Care Trust | (HTA) | 9.84 | 11.46 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 5.02 | 79.86 | 16.46 | 17.92 | 4.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| LTC Property | (LTC) | 35.39 | 37.98 | 2.65 | 2.63 | 5.37 | 77.57 | 7.32 | 8.28 | -0.75 | 0.00 | 9.68 |
| Med Prop Trust | (MPW) | 12.22 | 13.02 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 6.45 | 75.00 | 6.55 | 8.27 | 0.00 | -0.68 | 5.00 |
| Nat'l Health Inv | (NHI) | 56.10 | 60.22 | 4.13 | 4.08 | 4.88 | 72.06 | 7.34 | 8.65 | -1.21 | 0.79 | 9.70 |
| Omega Health | (OHI) | 29.80 | 32.44 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 6.04 | 71.79 | 8.86 | 10.50 | 0.00 | -4.62 | 8.89 |
| Sabra Health Care | (SBRA) | 26.14 | 27.02 | 2.20 | 2.26 | 5.33 | 63.72 | 3.37 | 4.74 | 2.73 | 3.30 | 5.88 |
| Senior Housing | (SNH) | 22.23 | 22.18 | 1.74 | 1.76 | 7.03 | 88.64 | -0.22 | 1.53 | 1.15 | -2.95 | 0.00 |
| Universal Health | (UHT) | 40.06 | 43.81 | 2.80 | 2.83 | 5.71 | 88.34 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Ventas | (VTR) | 57.28 | 60.51 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.79 | 66.51 | 5.64 | 5.64 | 0.00 | -6.55 | 8.21 |
| Average | 5.69 | 77.96 | 7.12 | 8.40 | 0.33 | -1.69 | 4.66 | |||||
Dividend dates are:
| AVIV: 01-17-14 | DOC: 02-06-14 | HCN: 02-19-14 | HCP: 02-24-14 | HR : 02-27-14 | HTA: 04-02-14 | LTC: monthly |
| MPW: 04-10-14 | NHI: 05-08-14 | OHI: 02-17-14 | SBRA: 02-27-14 | SNH: 02-20-14 | UHT: 12-30-13 | VTR: 03-27-14 |
Historical yields for the sector:
| Mar 2007: 5.33% | June: 6.24% | Sept: 5.90% | Dec: 5.77% |
| Mar 2008: 5.84% | June: 6.33% | Sept: 5.25% | Dec: 6.89% |
| Mar 2009: 9.11% | June: 7.88% | Sept: 6.67% | Dec: 6.31% |
| Mar 2010: 6.67% | June: 6.09% | Sept: 5.62% | Dec: 5.75% |
| Mar 2011: 5.48% | June: 5.64% | Sept: 6.02% | Dec: 5.34% |
| Mar 2012: 5.16% | June: 4.84% | Sept: 4.89% | Dec: 4.69% |
| Mar 2013: 4.66% | June: 5.09% | Sept: 5.49% | Dec: 6.02% |
The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2014 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79. The DOC FFO projection fell 50%, distorting the 2013 sector ratio. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65% before the addition of the newbies. AVIV and DOC do not distort the 2014 and 2015 sector average ratios.
| FFO / Share | % FFO Growth | Price/FFO | 14 FFO Range | |||||||||||||
| Co. | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 14-15 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | High | Low | Range | |
| AVIV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 | 1.82 | 2.00 | na | 44.44 | 9.89 | 19.78 | 13.69 | 12.46 | 190 | 152 | 20.88% | |
| DOC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 1.17 | na | 265.38 | 23.16 | 50.38 | 13.79 | 11.20 | 106 | 83 | 24.21% | |
| HCN | 3.13 | 3.41 | 3.51 | 3.36 | 4.02 | 4.23 | -4.27 | 19.64 | 5.22 | 17.29 | 14.45 | 13.73 | 410 | 397 | 3.23% | |
| HCP | 2.19 | 2.69 | 2.76 | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3.14 | 9.06 | 0.33 | 3.97 | 12.36 | 12.31 | 11.84 | 310 | 296 | 4.64% | |
| HR | 1.29 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.45 | 1.56 | 0.76 | 9.85 | 7.59 | 18.08 | 16.46 | 15.29 | 148 | 139 | 6.21% | |
| HTA | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 4.92 | 12.50 | 6.94 | 17.91 | 15.92 | 14.88 | 75 | 70 | 6.94% | |
| LTC | 1.88 | 2.15 | 2.26 | 2.37 | 2.63 | 2.83 | 4.87 | 10.97 | 7.60 | 16.03 | 14.44 | 13.42 | 269 | 258 | 4.18% | |
| MPW | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 6.67 | 16.67 | 6.25 | 13.56 | 11.62 | 10.94 | 114 | 109 | 4.46% | |
| NHI | 2.76 | 2.88 | 3.18 | 3.55 | 4.08 | 4.28 | 11.64 | 14.93 | 4.90 | 16.96 | 14.76 | 14.07 | 414 | 402 | 2.94% | |
| OHI | 1.61 | 1.89 | 2.19 | 2.53 | 2.73 | 2.79 | 15.53 | 7.91 | 2.20 | 12.82 | 11.88 | 11.63 | 279 | 270 | 3.30% | |
| SBRA | 0.00 | 1.31 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 2.26 | 2.40 | 30.50 | 22.83 | 6.19 | 14.68 | 11.96 | 11.26 | 241 | 219 | 9.73% | |
| SNH | 1.70 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.69 | 1.76 | 1.84 | -3.43 | 4.14 | 4.55 | 13.12 | 12.60 | 12.05 | 181 | 154 | 15.34% | |
| UHT | 2.61 | 2.57 | 2.84 | 2.77 | 2.83 | 2.89 | -2.46 | 2.17 | 2.12 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 15.16 | 290 | 290 | 0.00% | |
| VTR | 2.85 | 3.37 | 3.80 | 4.14 | 4.36 | 4.58 | 8.95 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 14.62 | 13.88 | 13.21 | 445 | 420 | 5.73% | |
| Average | 6.89 | 31.22 | 6.83 | 18.10 | 13.80 | 12.94 | ||||||||||
Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.