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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • MLP Midstream Stat Update 3-14-14 4 comments
    Mar 14, 2014 9:27 PM

    Note - while it is still labeled XTEX in my data, XTEX is now ENLK.

    MLP Midstream 03-14-14

    The consensus DCFs were updated 03-04-14. The CAGR projections were updated 1-31-14. Yields are based on the Q1-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is actually the change since Q1-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year.


      CurrentDistrib/Q1 DistDist/dcfDist/dcfYear-to-Date Percent Change
      PriceQuarterYield20142015PricePr+DistEPSTargetDCFDist*cagr

    Access(NYSE:ACMP)55.860.55503.9769.8164.53-1.27-0.291.249.75-1.2423.330.00
    American(NYSE:AMID)25.290.45257.1686.1978.35-6.61-4.940.003.321.454.620.00
    Atlas Pipelines(NYSE:APL)31.530.62007.8786.4183.22-10.04-8.27-6.67-13.25-2.716.900.00
    BlueKnight(NASDAQ:BKEP)9.010.12645.6149.5750.565.887.360.000.00-0.979.910.00
    Buckeye(NYSE:BPL)73.641.08755.9194.3686.653.705.240.004.93-1.914.820.00
    Boardwalk(NYSE:BWP)12.600.10003.1721.8621.16-50.63-50.24-28.10-50.23-7.58-81.220.00
    Crestwood(NYSE:CMLP)22.360.41007.3388.6581.59-10.16-8.528.93-2.350.006.490.00
    DCP Partners(NYSE:DPM)49.140.73255.9690.4378.98-2.40-0.951.671.28-1.526.160.00
    El Paso(NYSE:EPB)29.910.65008.69101.9695.94-16.92-15.11-2.91-8.21-1.166.560.00
    Enbridge(NYSE:EEP)26.900.54358.08106.05107.09-9.94-8.12-3.57-0.32-3.300.000.00
    Enterprise(NYSE:EPD)67.810.70004.1366.9963.062.283.332.012.970.726.060.00
    Energy Trans(NYSE:ETP)54.190.92006.7978.6386.18-5.34-3.742.880.07-0.212.940.00
    EQT Mdstrm(NYSE:EQM)64.480.46002.8557.3250.009.6810.46-0.7615.503.5531.430.00
    Exterran(NASDAQ:EXLP)30.790.53256.9281.3091.421.853.610.797.000.383.900.00
    Genesis(NYSE:GEL)55.350.53503.8773.0464.465.296.31-1.602.89-0.3410.310.00
    Holly(NYSE:HEP)32.950.50006.0790.5081.971.923.46-1.69-0.590.916.380.00
    Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMP)74.251.36007.3394.7793.15-7.95-6.26-1.47-2.710.175.430.00
    Magellan(NYSE:MMP)69.260.58503.3875.2466.869.4710.393.9614.021.3017.000.00
    Mark West(NYSE:MWE)64.010.86005.3784.7372.57-3.21-1.91-3.09-6.10-6.454.88-19.54
    Targa(NYSE:NGLS)53.550.74755.5884.4677.662.393.82-4.645.670.859.930.00
    NuStar(NYSE:NS)53.891.09508.13112.6098.215.697.83-0.546.342.100.000.00
    OneOK(NYSE:OKS)52.900.73005.5287.9576.040.471.860.000.75-0.602.820.00
    Oil Tanking(NYSE:OILT)72.650.47002.5963.7365.9617.0517.800.336.354.6120.510.00
    Plains All-Am(NYSE:PAA)53.100.61504.6378.5978.102.573.76-1.870.830.009.330.00
    Regency(NYSE:RGP)26.930.47507.0689.6285.202.554.360.000.692.423.260.00
    Spectra(NYSE:SEP)48.390.54634.5284.3782.156.707.91-1.560.510.3910.360.00
    Sunco(NYSE:SXL)83.070.66253.1955.2152.0610.0610.93-1.3311.654.1221.560.00
    TCPipelines(NYSE:TCP)46.540.81006.9688.5284.16-3.90-2.230.00-0.88-1.083.850.00
    Tesoro(NYSE:TLLP)63.660.56503.5574.1067.8721.6322.710.001.95-0.6519.700.00
    Transmontaigne(NYSE:TLP)42.510.65006.1274.2973.650.021.550.000.000.001.560.00
    Western(NYSE:WES)64.550.60003.7278.9572.734.645.61-2.162.28-0.3315.380.00
    Williams(NYSE:WPZ)49.670.89257.1996.4991.54-2.34-0.58-0.47-1.053.647.850.00
    Cross-Tex(XTEX)34.900.36004.1391.1476.6026.4527.750.0012.480.649.090.00

    Pipeline Average  5.5680.5475.750.291.69-1.230.771.746.40 
    Shipping
    Navios(NYSE:NMM)18.210.44259.72104.1298.33-4.76-2.456.858.21-2.860.000.00
    Martin(NASDAQ:MMLP)42.730.78507.3590.2373.02-0.161.670.00-1.200.001.950.00
    TeeKay(NYSE:TGP)40.080.69186.9093.4980.44-6.16-4.542.80-1.610.342.490.00

    Shipping Average  7.9998.02 -3.69-1.773.221.80  

    MidStream Average 5.7681.8276.43-0.041.40-0.860.86  

    The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -0.99% year to date.
    The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -1.08% and with dividends is 0.14%.
    The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -0.02% and with dividends is -0.02%.
    The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 1.89% and with dividend is 1.89%.
    With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.65% & the sector average yield [on Q1 distrib's] at 5.76% - the spread is 311 bps.
    With the JNK yielding 5.83% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -7 bps.
    With the HYG yielding 5.89% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -13 bps.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    CompanyQ1-14ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistribution
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/14 DCF
    Large Cap Midstream
    BuckeyeBPL5.91%4.00%9.91%BBB2.3010.40-0.492.64.4994.36
    BoardwalkBWP3.17%1.00%4.17%BBB-3.2010.70-6.533.17.5321.86
    El PasoEPB8.69%2.00%10.69%BBB-1.2010.300.393.11.61101.96
    EnbridgeEEP8.08%1.50%9.58%BBB2.4010.50-0.922.92.42106.05
    EnterpriseEPD4.13%6.70%10.83%BBB+1.209.701.131.65.5766.99
    Energy TransETP6.79%3.50%10.29%BBB-3.0010.70-0.412.33.9178.63
    Kinder MorganKMP7.33%4.70%12.03%BBB1.0010.002.032.52.6794.77
    MagellanMMP3.38%8.80%12.18%BBB1.0010.002.182.46.6275.24
    NuStarNS8.13%1.50%9.63%BB+4.0011.50-1.873.13.37112.60
    OneOKOKS5.52%6.70%12.22%BBB1.5010.501.722.14.9887.95
    Plains All-AmPAA4.63%8.30%12.93%BBB1.0010.002.931.85.3778.59
    WilliamsWPZ7.19%5.40%12.59%BBB3.0011.001.592.23.8196.49

    Average 6.08%4.51%10.59%    2.48

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Small Cap Midstream
    BlueKnightBKEP5.61%8.50%14.11%none4.0013.500.613.37.8949.57
    GenesisGEL3.87%8.60%12.47%BB-2.7011.800.672.27.9373.04
    HollyHEP6.07%6.00%12.07%BB1.3011.200.873.15.1390.50
    Oil TankingOILT2.59%7.70%10.29%none2.0010.50-0.212.47.9163.73
    SpectraSEP4.52%6.50%11.02%BBB2.2010.500.523.15.9884.37
    SuncoSXL3.19%8.90%12.09%BBB-1.0010.002.092.66.8155.21
    TCPipelinesTCP6.96%3.00%9.96%BBB1.0010.00-0.043.63.0488.52
    TesoroTLLP3.55%8.50%12.05%BB-1.2010.002.051.86.4574.10
    TransmontaigneTLP6.12%3.00%9.12%none1.2010.00-0.881.93.8874.29

    Average 4.72%6.74%11.46%    2.67

    CompanyQ4-13ConsensusTotalBondsDCFMyTotal RtnConsensusPr ImplDistrib
      YieldCAGRReturnRatingsAccrRRRs- RRRRatingsCAGR/ DCF
    Gathering & Processing
    AccessACMP3.97%9.60%13.57%BB-1.5012.001.571.78.0369.81
    AmericanAMID7.16%4.50%11.66%none5.0012.50-0.842.55.3486.19
    Atlas PipelinesAPL7.87%7.00%14.87%B+5.0013.501.371.85.6386.41
    CrestwoodCMLP7.33%4.80%12.13%B-3.7012.50-0.371.95.1788.65
    DCP PartnersDPM5.96%6.70%12.66%BBB-2.7011.501.161.95.5490.43
    EQT MdstrmEQM2.85%9.50%12.35%none2.0011.201.151.78.3557.32
    ExterranEXLP6.92%3.00%9.92%B-2.2011.50-1.582.64.5881.30
    Mark WestMWE5.37%7.00%12.37%BB3.2012.50-0.131.57.1384.73
    TargaNGLS5.58%6.90%12.48%BB1.7012.200.282.36.6284.46
    RegencyRGP7.06%3.80%10.86%BB-3.2012.00-1.142.84.9489.62
    WesternWES3.72%9.10%12.82%BBB-1.7011.201.621.97.4878.95
    Cross-TexXTEX4.13%8.50%12.63%B+4.0013.50-0.872.49.3791.14

    Average 5.66%6.70%12.36%    2.08
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Comments (4)
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  • camroc
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for this. Really helpful.
    15 Mar 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Alphamarky
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    why can i only see part of the speadsheet..
    when press on the "see full table" it only open one more row
    of numbers, not the full speadsheet..
    16 Mar 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (667) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I can see the full table. I see the full table when the cursor is placed over the spreadsheet. The "see full table" text fails to generate a "clickable" event - there is no need for clicking.

     

    I am aware that Seeking Alpha has some problems with javascript created spreadsheets. For example - the numbers are "right justified" in my document, but that coding results in left justified numbers when presented at Seeking Alpha.

     

    In the "old code" at Seeking Alpha, the part of the document that was in different font colors - or in bold font - was presented as plain text. The new code is allowing for font colors and bold text. Given the width of my spreadsheets, I believe that I am generating documents that better communicate when color and bold fonts are included.

     

    I am aware that Seeking Alpha does moderate all postings. When you communicate a problem in the comment section of a document - the message does get through to the people in change.

     

    So if you have a problem with the display of my data - keep those cards, letters and comments coming in. Seeking Alpha is listening.
    16 Mar 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • pallasathena
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Good stats -- thanks
    16 Mar 2014, 11:49 AM Reply Like
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