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Historical EPS Projection Accuracy - Consumer Staples

My recent article that included data on FFO projection accuracy caused some curiosity on "earning projection accuracy" in other sectors - and how that metric influences RRRs. Here is the data on my "grocery list" portfolio.

You can see how low accuracy for ADM and INGR results in those two having a higher "yield + CAGR". And having a higher "yield + CAGR" implies that they have higher RRRs (or required rates of return).

Changes in EPS estimates by Year:
Some Companies Have Assets That Produce More Predictable EPS Projections
  2010 2011 2012 2013 Accuracy 14 EPS
comp Beginning Ending Change Beginning Ending Change Beginning Ending Change Beginning Cur Change Rating Spread

ADM 2.80 3.06 9.3% 2.91 3.47 19.2% 2.97 2.30 -22.6% 3.11 2.33 -25.1% 3.5 20%
CPB 2.47 2.47 0.0% 2.51 2.54 1.2% 2.37 2.44 3.0% 2.54 2.64 3.9% 1.0 3%
KO 1.72 1.75 1.7% 1.92 1.92 0.0% 2.07 2.01 -2.9% 2.19 2.08 -5.0% 1.2 17%
CAG 1.75 1.74 -0.6% 1.75 1.75 0.0% 1.81 1.84 1.7% 2.08 2.16 3.8% 1.0 2%
CL 2.42 2.42 0.0% 2.53 2.52 -0.4% 2.76 2.68 -2.9% 2.95 2.84 -3.7% 1.0 7%
INGR 2.52 3.24 28.6% 3.62 4.68 29.3% 5.11 5.57 9.0% 5.87 5.05 -14.0% 2.0 6%
CLX 3.94 4.24 7.6% 4.15 3.93 -5.3% 4.08 4.10 0.5% 4.31 4.31 0.0% 1.5 4%
FLO 0.71 0.66 -7.0% 0.74 0.64 -13.5% 0.73 0.69 -5.5% 0.77 0.91 18.2% 3.0 7%
GIS 2.30 2.30 0.0% 2.48 2.48 0.0% 2.60 2.56 -1.5% 2.68 2.69 0.4% 1.0 4%
HSY 2.30 2.55 10.9% 2.76 2.82 2.2% 3.12 3.24 3.8% 3.55 3.72 4.8% 1.0 3%
HRL 1.31 1.51 15.3% 1.59 1.74 9.4% 1.82 1.86 2.2% 1.94 1.97 1.5% 1.0 6%
K 3.62 3.30 -8.8% 3.46 3.38 -2.3% 3.52 3.61 2.6% 3.63 3.77 3.9% 2.0 9%
KMB 5.17 4.68 -9.5% 5.01 4.80 -4.2% 5.25 5.25 0.0% 5.59 5.77 3.2% 2.0 4%
LANC 3.78 4.07 7.7% 3.64 3.84 5.5% 3.83 3.45 -9.9% 4.03 3.98 -1.2% 2.0 3%
MKC 2.52 2.65 5.2% 2.81 2.79 -0.7% 3.10 3.04 -1.9% 3.36 3.13 -6.8% 1.8 3%
PEP 4.17 4.13 -1.0% 4.61 4.40 -4.6% 4.60 4.10 -10.9% 4.41 4.37 -0.9% 2.0 1%
PG 4.14 4.11 -0.7% 3.98 3.95 -0.8% 4.19 3.85 -8.1% 3.96 4.05 2.3% 1.2 2%
SJM 4.06 4.35 7.1% 4.66 4.81 3.2% 5.02 4.73 -5.8% 5.21 5.37 3.1% 1.2 1%

Total Return Expectations


Co Yield CAGR Total Rtn

ADM 1.79% 9.00% 10.79%
CPB 2.63% 6.50% 9.13%
KO 2.93% 6.50% 9.43%
CAG 3.40% 7.50% 10.90%
CL 2.13% 7.80% 9.93%
INGR 2.30% 9.10% 11.40%
CLX 2.93% 7.00% 9.93%
FLO 2.14% 9.50% 11.64%
GIS 2.65% 7.70% 10.35%
HSY 1.58% 9.50% 11.08%
HRL 1.44% 9.90% 11.34%
K 2.89% 7.00% 9.89%
KMB 2.95% 7.00% 9.95%
LANC 1.68% 9.00% 10.68%
MKC 2.01% 8.50% 10.51%
PEP 2.80% 6.50% 9.30%
PG 3.05% 7.50% 10.55%
SJM 2.16% 7.50% 9.66%

Average 2.42% 7.94% 10.36%