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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Multi-Family Stats With FFO Projection Accuracy Numbers 3-19-14 0 comments
    Mar 20, 2014 9:15 AM

    Apartment Update for 03-19-14

    Yields are calculated on the Q1-14 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change in since Q1-13. On 12-19 ESS announced plans to buy BRE - each BRE share will convert into 0.2971 newly issued shares of ESS plus $12.33 in cash. UDR has announced an div increase to $0.26 in Q2-14


        Share Price 14 FFO Est Q4-13 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM
    Company 1-01 03-19 1-01 03-19 Yield FFO14 FFO15 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div

    Apartment Investors AIV 25.91 29.67 2.17 2.08 3.51 50.00 46.22 14.51 15.44 -4.15 1.35 8.33
    Avalon Bay AVB 118.23 129.04 6.77 6.75 3.60 68.74 63.74 9.14 10.05 -0.30 0.54 8.41
    BRE Properties BRE 54.71 60.61 2.66 2.71 2.61 58.30 53.56 10.78 10.78 1.88 0.00 0.00
    Camden CPT 56.88 65.92 4.27 4.22 4.00 62.56 59.19 15.89 17.00 -1.17 -0.41 17.86
    Equity Residential EQR 51.87 57.28 3.11 3.10 3.49 64.52 60.79 10.43 11.20 -0.32 2.90 25.00
    Essex Properties ESS 143.51 163.15 8.29 8.34 2.97 58.03 53.48 13.69 13.69 0.60 0.36 10.00
    Home Properties HME 53.62 59.18 4.52 4.51 4.93 64.75 61.86 10.37 11.67 -0.22 -0.08 4.29
    Mid-America MAA 60.74 66.26 4.99 5.04 4.41 57.94 53.19 9.09 10.23 1.00 1.43 5.04
    Post Properties PPS 45.23 48.30 2.76 2.63 2.98 54.75 51.25 6.79 7.52 -4.71 -2.80 44.00
    United Dominion UDR 23.35 25.17 1.49 1.50 3.73 62.67 59.12 7.79 8.80 0.67 1.22 6.82

    Apartment Average         3.62 60.23   10.85 11.70 -0.67 0.45 12.97
    Student Housing
    American Campus ACC 32.21 36.06 2.33 2.33 3.99 61.80 58.06 11.95 13.07 0.00 -1.19 6.67
    Education Reality EDR 8.82 9.50 0.64 0.64 4.63 68.75 60.27 7.71 8.96 0.00 0.85 10.00

    Student Housing Average               9.83 11.01 -9.39      

    Sector Average         3.74 61.07   10.68 11.58 -0.56 0.35 14.64

    Dividend dates are:

    AIV: 02-27-14 AVB: 04-14-14 BRE: 03-30-14 CPT: 04-16-14 EQR: 01-14-14 ESS: 03-30-14
    HME: 02-24-14 MAA: 01-30-14 PPS: 04-14-14 UDR: 04-30-14 ACC: 02-20-14 EDR: 02-13-14

    Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 03-19

    FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
    Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

    AIV 144 168 204 208 225 21.43% 1.96% 8.17% 14.54 14.26 13.19 217 205 5.77%
    AVB 460 544 505 675 728 -7.17% 33.66% 7.85% 25.55 19.12 17.73 685 648 5.48%
    BRE 214 219 254 271 295 15.98% 6.69% 8.86% 23.86 22.37 20.55 279 264 5.54%
    CPT 272 362 411 422 446 13.54% 2.68% 5.69% 16.04 15.62 14.78 429 418 2.61%
    EQR 242 276 235 310 329 -14.86% 31.91% 6.13% 24.37 18.48 17.41 313 306 2.26%
    ESS 570 671 759 834 905 13.11% 9.88% 8.51% 21.50 19.56 18.03 850 814 4.32%
    HME 348 413 437 451 472 5.81% 3.20% 4.66% 13.54 13.12 12.54 455 447 1.77%
    MAA 398 457 435 504 549 -4.81% 15.86% 8.93% 15.23 13.15 12.07 533 496 7.34%
    PPS 189 284 301 263 281 5.99% -12.62% 6.84% 16.05 18.37 17.19 276 253 8.75%
    UDR 127 132 144 150 159 9.09% 4.17% 6.00% 17.48 16.78 15.83 152 147 3.33%

    Average         5.81 9.74 7.16 18.82 17.08 15.93  
    Student Housing
    ACC 179 191 222 233 248 16.23% 4.95% 6.44% 16.24 15.48 14.54 237 231 2.58%
    EDR 41 46 55 64 73 19.57% 16.36% 14.06% 17.27 14.84 13.01 66 60 9.38%

    Sector Average       7.83 9.89 7.68 18.47 16.76 15.57  

    FFO estimates projection accuracy by Year

    These number are from Yahoo - which reports headline FFO for this sector compared to normalized FFO in the Health Care Sector. That causes volatility to be higher. Low ratings are better ratings. REITs that have had no earning disappointments greater than a negative 15% over the last nine years are assigned a 1 rating. One 20% disappointment adds half a point to the rating. One 30% disappointment adds a full point to a rating. One 50% disappointment adds a point and a half. AVB's, EQR's and MAA's shortfall in 2013 were acquisition related - those occurrences were ignored. The FFO spread is the high FFO projection minus the low projection, with that result divided by the average projection. High spread numbers - from MAA and EDR - also added fractions of a point to my accuracy rating.

      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Acc FFO
    comp Chng Chng Chng Chng Chng Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin Cur Chng Rate Sprd

    AIV 6% -1% -59% -50% 9% 1.56 1.44 -8% 1.77 1.68 -5% 2.04 2.04 0% 2.17 2.08 -4% 4.00 6%
    AVB 11% -3% -20% -21% 3% 4.44 4.60 4% 5.43 5.44 0% 6.17 5.05 -18% 6.77 6.75 -0% 2.00 5%
    BRE 20% -1% -1% -3% -23% 2.08 2.14 3% 2.38 2.19 -8% 2.55 2.54 -0% 2.66 2.71 2% 1.50 6%
    CPT 11% -7% -24% -12% 1% 2.84 2.72 -4% 3.42 3.62 6% 3.95 4.11 4% 4.27 4.22 -1% 1.50 3%
    EQR -7% -3% -11% -12% 16% 2.43 2.42 -0% 2.77 2.76 -0% 3.02 2.35 -22% 3.11 3.10 -0% 1.00 2%
    ESS 8% 6% 5% 13% 15% 5.50 5.70 4% 6.47 6.71 4% 7.50 7.59 1% 8.29 8.34 1% 1.00 4%
    HME 4% -0% 4% -6% 3% 3.35 3.48 4% 3.81 4.13 8% 4.35 4.37 0% 4.52 4.51 -0% 1.00 2%
    MAA 2% -1% -1% 1% 1% 3.99 3.98 -0% 4.36 4.57 5% 4.81 4.35 -10% 4.99 5.04 1% 1.00 7%
    PPS -5% 1% -97% -97% 42% 1.52 1.89 24% 2.10 2.84 35% 2.85 3.01 6% 2.76 2.63 -5% 4.00 9%
    UDR 0% -6% -27% -18% -1% 1.21 1.27 5% 1.42 1.32 -7% 1.44 1.44 0% 1.49 1.50 1% 2.20 3%
    ACC -4% -34% 12% 0% -1% 1.60 1.79 12% 1.95 1.91 -2% 2.38 2.22 -7% 2.33 2.33 0% 2.00 3%
    EDR -18% -1% -22% -27% 0% 0.45 0.41 -9% 0.47 0.46 -2% 0.56 0.55 -2% 0.64 0.64 0% 3.20 9%

    Average                                 2.03 4.93

    Intra-year changes in FFO estimates by Year

      2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    comp Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin End Chng Begin Cur Chng

    AIV 2.90 2.48 -14% 2.90 3.07 6% 3.30 3.28 -1% 3.52 1.45 -59% 2.64 1.33 -50% 1.27 1.38 9%
    AVB 3.59 3.77 5% 3.95 4.38 11% 4.73 4.61 -3% 5.10 4.07 -20% 4.92 3.89 -21% 3.87 4.00 3%
    BRE 2.24 2.15 -4% 2.22 2.67 20% 2.61 2.59 -1% 2.86 2.82 -1% 2.57 2.49 -3% 2.05 1.58 -23%
    CPT 3.39 3.47 2% 3.50 3.88 11% 3.94 3.66 -7% 3.84 2.90 -24% 3.40 2.99 -12% 2.66 2.68 1%
    EQR 2.33 2.52 8% 2.43 2.27 -7% 2.50 2.42 -3% 2.46 2.18 -11% 2.41 2.12 -12% 1.96 2.27 16%
    ESS 4.42 4.48 1% 4.62 5.01 8% 5.28 5.58 6% 5.87 6.14 5% 5.98 6.77 13% 4.67 5.36 15%
    HME 2.91 2.84 -2% 2.96 3.07 4% 3.21 3.20 -0% 3.43 3.57 4% 3.42 3.21 -6% 3.00 3.10 3%
    MAA 3.06 3.20 5% 3.25 3.33 2% 3.57 3.55 -1% 3.76 3.73 -1% 3.72 3.75 1% 3.54 3.57 1%
    PPS 1.89 1.95 3% 1.97 1.87 -5% 1.99 2.00 1% 1.96 0.05 -97% 1.48 0.05 -97% 1.06 1.50 42%
    UDR 1.61 1.61 0% 1.68 1.68 0% 1.81 1.71 -6% 1.91 1.39 -27% 1.41 1.15 -18% 1.10 1.09 -1%
    ACC 1.23 1.22 -1% 1.43 1.37 -4% 1.51 1.00 -34% 1.00 1.12 12% 1.42 1.42 0% 1.59 1.58 -1%
    EDR 0.47 0.46 -2% 1.01 0.83 -18% 0.89 0.88 -1% 0.93 0.73 -22% 0.78 0.57 -27% 0.44 0.44 0%
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