Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Health Care Update For 4-11-14

Health Care Update for Q2-14

Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - SBRA an increase to $0.36 - MPW increased to $0.21/share. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. NHI has already announced an increase to $0.77 in its Q2-14 dividend.


  Share Price 2014 FFO Estimate   Div/ Percent Change LTM
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 04-11 1-01 04-11 Yield FFO Price Pr+Div 14 FFO Target Div

Aviv REIT (NYSE:AVIV) 23.70 25.00 1.85 1.86 5.76 77.42 5.49 8.52 0.54 0.38 0.00
Physicians Realty (NYSE:DOC) 12.24 13.28 0.98 0.95 6.78 94.74 8.50 10.33 -3.06 2.19 0.00
Health Care REIT (NYSE:HCN) 53.57 61.77 4.00 4.03 5.15 78.91 15.31 16.79 0.75 -2.12 3.92
Health Care Prop (NYSE:HCP) 36.32 40.22 3.06 3.02 5.42 72.19 10.74 12.24 -1.31 -4.85 3.81
Health Care Realty (NYSE:HR) 21.31 24.43 1.41 1.45 4.91 82.76 14.64 16.05 2.84 -2.58 0.00
Health Care Trust (NYSE:HTA) 9.84 11.43 0.69 0.73 5.03 78.77 16.16 17.62 5.80 1.90 0.00
LTC Property (NYSE:LTC) 35.39 38.23 2.65 2.63 5.34 77.57 8.02 9.47 -0.75 6.31 9.68
Med Prop Trust (NYSE:MPW) 12.22 12.96 1.12 1.11 6.48 75.68 6.06 7.77 -0.89 -0.23 5.00
Nat'l Health Inv (NYSE:NHI) 56.10 59.40 4.13 4.07 4.95 72.24 5.88 7.19 -1.45 0.79 9.70
Omega Health (NYSE:OHI) 29.80 34.09 2.73 2.75 5.75 71.27 14.40 16.04 0.73 -3.08 8.89
Sabra Health Care (NASDAQ:SBRA) 26.14 29.76 2.20 2.26 4.84 63.72 13.85 15.23 2.73 3.86 5.88
Senior Housing (NYSE:SNH) 22.23 22.45 1.74 1.76 6.95 88.64 0.99 2.74 1.15 -2.95 0.00
Universal Health (NYSE:UHT) 40.06 42.56 2.80 2.83 5.87 88.34 6.24 7.80 1.07 0.00 0.81
Ventas (NYSE:VTR) 57.28 63.15 4.36 4.37 4.59 66.36 10.25 11.51 0.23 -4.00 8.21

Average           5.56 77.76 9.75 11.38 0.60 -0.31 4.66

Click to enlarge

Dividend dates are:

AVIV: 04-11-14 DOC: 04-24-14 HCN: 02-19-14 HCP: 02-24-14 HR : 02-27-14 HTA: 04-02-14 LTC: monthly
MPW: 04-10-14 NHI: 05-08-14 OHI: 02-17-14 SBRA: 02-27-14 SNH: 05-20-14 UHT: 03-30-14 VTR: 03-27-14
Click to enlarge

Historical yields for the sector:

Mar 2005: 6.99% June: 6.09% Sept: 6.22% Dec: 6.73%
Mar 2006: 6.18% June: 6.79% Sept: 5.85% Dec: 5.28%
Mar 2007: 5.33% June: 6.24% Sept: 5.90% Dec: 5.77%
Mar 2008: 5.84% June: 6.33% Sept: 5.25% Dec: 6.89%
Mar 2009: 9.11% June: 7.88% Sept: 6.67% Dec: 6.31%
Mar 2010: 6.67% June: 6.09% Sept: 5.62% Dec: 5.75%
Mar 2011: 5.48% June: 5.64% Sept: 6.02% Dec: 5.34%
Mar 2012: 5.16% June: 4.84% Sept: 4.89% Dec: 4.69%
Mar 2013: 4.66% June: 5.09% Sept: 5.49% Dec: 6.02%
Mar 2014: 5.63% June: Sept: Dec:
Click to enlarge
Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 04-11

The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2014 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79. The DOC FFO projection fell 50%, distorting the 2013 sector ratio. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65% before the addition of the newbies. AVIV and DOC do not distort the 2014 and 2015 sector average ratios.


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

AVIV 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 1.86 2.05 na 47.62 10.22 19.84 13.44 12.20 193 152 22.04%
DOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.95 1.18 na 265.38 24.21 51.08 13.98 11.25 106 90 16.84%
HCN 3.13 3.41 3.51 3.36 4.03 4.21 -4.27 19.94 4.47 18.38 15.33 14.67 412 397 3.72%
HCP 2.19 2.69 2.76 3.01 3.02 3.13 9.06 0.33 3.64 13.36 13.32 12.85 310 298 3.97%
HR 1.29 1.15 1.31 1.32 1.45 1.57 0.76 9.85 8.28 18.51 16.85 15.56 148 139 6.21%
HTA 0.38 0.51 0.61 0.64 0.73 0.77 4.92 14.06 5.48 17.86 15.66 14.84 75 70 6.85%
LTC 1.88 2.15 2.26 2.37 2.63 2.83 4.87 10.97 7.60 16.13 14.54 13.51 269 256 4.94%
MPW 0.66 0.71 0.90 0.96 1.11 1.18 6.67 15.63 6.31 13.50 11.68 10.98 114 104 9.01%
NHI 2.76 2.88 3.18 3.55 4.07 4.27 11.64 14.65 4.91 16.73 14.59 13.91 418 396 5.41%
OHI 1.61 1.89 2.19 2.53 2.75 2.80 15.53 8.70 1.82 13.47 12.40 12.18 279 270 3.27%
SBRA 0.00 1.31 1.41 1.84 2.26 2.39 30.50 22.83 5.75 16.17 13.17 12.45 241 202 17.26%
SNH 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.69 1.76 1.85 -3.43 4.14 5.11 13.28 12.76 12.14 181 170 6.25%
UHT 2.61 2.57 2.84 2.77 2.83 2.89 -2.46 2.17 2.12 15.36 15.04 14.73 283 283 0.00%
VTR 2.85 3.37 3.80 4.14 4.37 4.56 8.95 5.56 4.35 15.25 14.45 13.85 445 420 5.72%

Average           6.89 31.56 6.73 18.50 14.08 13.22

Click to enlarge

Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
Mar 2011: 15.07 June: 14.62 Sept: 12.91 Dec: 14.95
Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: 15.21 Dec: 16.67
Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.