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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Multi-Family Update 4-23-14 2 comments
    Apr 24, 2014 9:30 AM

    Note to followers - I changed both my computer and ISP in order to try to fix problems in article submission to Seeking Alpha. That fix failed to work - and I hate spending money when the cure is ineffective. Now I am adjusting to a keyboard that lacks the same feel - and has a changed keyboard pattern. That makes data entry take longer. I am working in a new text editor that lines up the data differently - and that makes data entry also take longer as this old mind becomes accustomed to that new format.

    I have two articles in que - and the equivalent of the "submit" button (in the Seeing Alpha text editor) is not working. At times, the article fails to load in the Seeking Alpha text editor.

    Add to this - the SA editors are "passing along" problems. Because Yahoo creates (or allows) links in a quirky way - Seeking Alpha wants me to use the full name of the company in my spreadsheet. That results in my spreadsheets being too wide for Seeking Alpha. It appears that being too wide is a tech issue and not an editor issue.

    In sum, I am still trying to write for Seeking Alpha.

    Apartment Update for 04-23-14

    Yields are calculated on the Q1-14 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change is since Q1-13. ESS purchased BRE - each BRE share converted into 0.2971 newly issued shares of ESS plus $12.33 in cash. PPS increased its Q2-14 div to $0.36. UDR has increased its Q2-14 div to $0.26. A Q2-14 div increase from ESS is expected.


        Share Price 14 FFO Est Q1-14 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM
    Company 1-01 04-17 1-01 04-17 Yield FFO14 FFO15 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div

    Apartment Investors (NYSE:AIV) 25.91 30.05 2.17 2.07 3.46 50.24 46.85 15.98 16.90 -4.61 1.84 8.33
    Avalon Bay (NYSE:AVB) 118.23 133.35 6.77 6.76 3.48 68.64 63.74 12.79 14.60 -0.15 1.40 8.41
    Camden (NYSE:CPT) 56.88 67.61 4.27 4.23 3.90 62.41 59.06 18.86 21.08 -0.94 0.67 17.86
    Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) 51.87 57.85 3.11 3.10 3.46 64.52 60.61 11.53 13.07 -0.32 3.84 25.00
    Essex Properties (NYSE:ESS) 143.51 168.79 8.29 8.28 2.87 58.45 53.36 17.62 18.46 -0.12 1.90 10.00
    Home Properties (NYSE:HME) 53.62 60.34 4.52 4.51 4.84 64.75 61.73 12.53 13.84 -0.22 0.89 4.29
    Mid-America (NYSE:MAA) 60.74 68.62 4.99 5.01 4.26 58.28 53.48 12.97 14.12 0.40 2.86 5.04
    Post Properties (NYSE:PPS) 45.23 49.33 2.76 2.60 2.68 50.77 47.48 9.06 10.52 -5.80 -2.31 32.00
    United Dominion (NYSE:UDR) 23.35 25.58 1.49 1.50 3.67 62.67 58.75 9.55 10.56 0.67 1.87 6.82

    Apartment Average         3.62 60.08   13.43 14.89 -1.23 1.44 13.08
    Student Housing
    American Campus (NYSE:ACC) 32.21 37.89 2.33 2.33 3.80 61.80 58.30 17.63 18.75 0.00 3.00 6.67
    Education Reality (NYSE:EDR) 8.82 10.21 0.64 0.64 4.31 68.75 58.67 15.76 17.01 0.00 4.27 10.00

    Student Housing Average               16.70 17.88 -9.39      

    Sector Average         3.70 61.03   14.03 15.43 -1.01 1.84 12.22

    Dividend dates are:

    AIV: 02-27-14 AVB: 04-14-14 CPT: 04-16-14 EQR: 04-10-14 ESS: 03-30-14
    HME: 02-24-14 MAA: 04-30-14 PPS: 04-14-14 UDR: 04-30-14 ACC: 02-20-14 EDR: 02-13-14

    Special dividends are not included in these stats.

    Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 04-17


      FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
    Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

    AIV 144 168 204 207 222 21.43% 1.47% 7.25% 14.73 14.52 13.54 217 205 5.80%
    AVB 460 544 505 676 728 -7.17% 33.86% 7.69% 26.41 19.73 18.32 685 648 5.47%
    CPT 272 362 411 423 447 13.54% 2.92% 5.67% 16.45 15.98 15.13 429 418 2.60%
    EQR 242 276 235 310 330 -14.86% 31.91% 6.45% 24.62 18.66 17.53 313 306 2.26%
    ESS 570 671 759 828 907 13.11% 9.09% 9.54% 22.24 20.39 18.61 850 814 4.35%
    HME 348 413 437 451 473 5.81% 3.20% 4.88% 13.81 13.38 12.76 455 447 1.77%
    MAA 398 457 435 501 546 -4.81% 15.17% 8.98% 15.77 13.70 12.57 533 496 7.39%
    PPS 189 284 301 260 278 5.99% -13.62% 6.92% 16.39 18.97 17.74 276 253 8.85%
    UDR 127 132 144 150 160 9.09% 4.17% 6.67% 17.76 17.05 15.99 152 147 3.33%

    Average         4.68 9.80 7.12 18.69 16.93 15.80  
    Student Housing
    ACC 179 191 222 233 247 16.23% 4.95% 6.01% 17.07 16.26 15.34 237 231 2.58%
    EDR 41 46 55 64 75 19.57% 16.36% 17.19% 18.56 15.95 13.61 66 60 9.38%

    Sector Average       7.08 9.95 7.93 18.53 16.78 15.56

    added by edit on Wednesday afternoon

    Dividend History [based on Q4 Divs]


      Dividends/Share/Quarter Percentage Dividend Growth Average
    Co. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 2011-13

    AIV 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.100 0.100 0.120 0.200 0.240 0.00 -83.33 0.00 20.00 66.67 20.00 43.33
    AVB 0.710 0.780 0.850 0.893 0.893 0.893 0.893 0.970 1.070 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.68 10.31 9.50
    CPT 0.635 0.660 0.690 0.700 0.450 0.450 0.490 0.560 0.630 1.45 -35.71 0.00 8.89 14.29 12.50 13.39
    EQR 0.433 0.443 0.463 0.483 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.400 4.32 -30.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.52 9.26
    ESS 0.810 0.840 0.930 1.020 1.030 1.033 1.040 1.100 1.210 9.68 0.98 0.24 0.73 5.77 10.00 7.88
    HME 0.630 0.650 0.660 0.670 0.670 0.580 0.620 0.660 0.700 1.52 0.00 -13.43 6.90 6.45 6.06 6.26
    MAA 0.595 0.595 0.605 0.615 0.615 0.615 0.628 0.660 0.695 1.65 0.00 0.00 2.03 5.18 5.30 5.24
    PPS 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.200 0.200 0.220 0.250 0.330 0.00 -55.56 0.00 10.00 13.64 32.00 22.82
    UDR 0.300 0.313 0.330 0.330 0.180 0.185 0.200 0.220 0.235 0.00 -45.45 2.78 8.11 10.00 6.82 8.41
    ACC 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.360 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 3.33
    EDR 0.300 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.050 0.050 0.070 0.100 0.110 0.00 -75.61 0.00 40.00 42.86 10.00 26.43

    Disclosure: I am long AVB, HME, UDR.

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Comments (2)
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  • davidma11
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I own CPT and am looking about adding UDR in this space. Factiods- hope you computer problem gets resolved. I really enjoy your articles.

     

    thanks again.
    24 Apr 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (1211) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My investments in apartment REITs include AVB, HME and UDR. My holdings in HME and UDR are small - and long held. Both were purchased before I arrived at CAGR and RRR awareness. They are not bad REITs - but I also would not call them quality REITs.
    I do not write on apartment REITs because I lack a network of volunteers to gather brokerage analysts FAD projections - and the earning releases from several apartment REITs fail to produce FAD numbers. If I did write on this sub-sector, I would be forced to display my holdings - and I would be slightly embarrassed to acknowledge owning them (HME and UDR).
    There is not a big valuation gap between UDR and AVB or ESS. If I were adding to a REIT portfolio that already contained middle tier CPT - I would add AVB or ESS.

     

    Take a look at the ten year dividend history before you make your purchase decision. I am not gathering debt to EBITDAs and interest coverage ratios on apartment REITs. You should find those stats. Buy a fortress balance sheet REIT.
    24 Apr 2014, 03:46 PM Reply Like
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