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What I Have Invested In

My goal is to create a portfolio with a 4% yield that has a dividend CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of over 5%. My current portfolio has a yield under 4% due to some stocks having substantial share price appreciation so far in 2014.

The spreadsheet that follows shows that amount invested, the current distribution and the current income produced by those stocks. These amounts are shown under the column year zero for the "projected income". Year one shows the projected income for next year. That calculation takes 1 plus the CAGR times the current number of shares and dividend rate. For example, a stock with a CAGR projection of 6% would have a projected yearly dividend payout of 1.06 times the current payout. Year 2 uses 1.06 times 1.06 times the current payout - and so on.

I am slightly more conservative with my CAGR projections in this data than I am in the sector reports that I produce. In other words, there will be differences - and my CAGRs will be slightly lower. I have done this kind of projection for years. My income produced by my portfolio has tended to rise slightly more than projected.

I do have approximately one third of my total investments in equity mutual funds. Those investments are not shown in this data.

I am occasionally asked why I use a pseudonym for my Seeking Alpha articles. If I were using my real name, I could never post a message with this kind of disclosure. But I am still uncomfortable posting this data - and it will be here only for the week-end. (Data is most of the cells has now been replaced with an x.)

Some readers also want to know if I practice what I preach. I have failed in selling some of my portfolio components that have falling or low CAGRs. Going by my stats by sector - I should not own CFR, CMLP, CLX and HME. But you can see that I already have a portfolio yield that is lower than my goal. Selling those four would lower my yield. So I am procrastinating on selling them for that reason.

I believe I could improve my portfolio if I had more investments in Tech (adding ACN and QCOM); Industrial stocks (adding HON and UTX); adding two more in Health Care / Pharma; adding two rail road stocks; and adding more BDC baby bonds for yield. A portfolio is always a work in process.

2014 'Portfolio CAGR' and Dividend Growth Dollars Expectation

  Current Dividend Current Projected LTM Div   Amount ------ Projected Income per Year ------
Company /Quarter Yield CAGR Growth shares Invested Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4
REITs
TCO 76.17 0.540 2.84 4.00% 8.00% x x x x x x x
O 44.07 0.182 4.97 2.00% 0.88% x x x x x x x
OFC 28.28 0.275 3.89 1.80% 0.00% x x x x x x x
VNO 107.94 0.730 2.71 2.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
AVB 142.56 1.160 3.25 5.00% 8.41% x x x x x x x
HME 62.38 0.730 4.68 3.00% 4.29% x x x x x x x
UDR 28.02 0.260 3.71 3.50% 10.64% x x x x x x x
LTC 40.71 0.170 5.01 3.50% 9.68% x x x x x x x
OHI 37.84 0.500 5.29 4.00% 8.70% x x x x x x x
VTR 65.38 0.725 4.44 6.00% 8.21% x x x x x x x
MLPs
ARP 19.66 0.580 11.80 3.00% 13.73% x x x x x x x
CMLP 21.99 0.410 7.46 5.00% -19.61% x x x x x x x
DPM 55.25 0.745 5.39 5.50% 6.43% x x x x x x x
EPD 75.23 0.710 3.78 6.20% 5.97% x x x x x x x
GEL 57.07 0.550 3.85 8.50% 10.55% x x x x x x x
KMP 78.60 1.380 7.02 4.00% 6.15% x x x x x x x
MMP 89.97 0.613 2.72 8.50% 20.69% x x x x x x x
MWE 64.79 0.870 5.37 8.00% 4.82% x x x x x x x
PAGP 28.87 0.170 2.36 17.00% 6.92% x x x x x x x
TRGP 120.53 0.647 2.15 18.00% 30.81% x x x x x x x
WES 74.41 0.625 3.36 8.00% 15.74% x x x x x x x
WMB 47.73 0.425 3.56 14.00% 20.57% x x x x x x x
Banks
BOKF 64.75 0.400 2.47 5.00% 5.26% x x x x x x x
CFR 77.36 0.510 2.64 4.00% 2.00% x x x x x x x
PB 60.34 0.240 1.59 8.00% 11.63% x x x x x x x
USB 42.88 0.230 2.15 7.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
WFC 51.98 0.350 2.69 5.00% 16.67% x x x x x x x
Cons Stpl
CL 68.02 0.360 2.12 7.80% 5.88% x x x x x x x
CLX 89.50 0.740 3.31 4.00% 4.23% x x x x x x x
HRL 49.27 0.200 1.62 9.20% 17.65% x x x x x x x
GIS 55.41 0.410 2.96 7.50% 24.24% x x x x x x x
PEP 87.91 0.655 2.98 6.50% 15.42% x x x x x x x
PG 80.03 0.644 3.22 7.50% 7.00% x x x x x x x
SJM 105.69 0.580 2.20 8.20% 11.54% x x x x x x x
Health Care
ABC 72.50 0.235 1.30 10.00% 11.90% x x x x x x x
ABT 40.05 0.220 2.20 9.00% 57.14% x x x x x x x
AMGN 117.82 0.610 2.07 8.00% 29.79% x x x x x x x
BAX 73.80 0.520 2.82 7.50% 6.12% x x x x x x x
NVO 43.54 0.207 1.90 10.00% 30.19% x x x x x x x
StJ 65.87 0.270 1.64 9.00% 8.00% x x x x x x x
SYK 85.56 0.305 1.43 9.50% 15.09% x x x x x x x
Energy-Mining
BBL 63.58 1.180 3.71 6.00% 3.51% x x x x x x x
XOM 101.60 0.630 2.48 7.20% 10.53% x x x x x x x
Tech
AAPL 645.57 3.290 2.04 10.00% 7.87% x x x x x x x
IBM 186.37 1.100 2.36 8.50% 15.79% x x x x x x x
INTC 28.17 0.225 3.19 5.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
BDCs
AINV 8.39 0.200 9.54 0.50% 0.00% x x x x x x x
ARCC 17.25 0.380 8.81 1.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
MAIN 31.75 0.165 6.24 5.00% 6.45% x x x x x x x
PFLT 14.01 0.270 7.71 1.20% 2.86% x x x x x x x
PNNT 11.17 0.280 10.03 0.50% 0.00% x x x x x x x
Bond Fund
HTGY 26.05 0.438 6.72 0.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
PHIGX 8.24 0.040 5.83 0.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x
VKMMX 13.56 0.047 4.16 0.00% 0.00% x x x x x x x

Total Income       x x x x x x

Yield on original dollars         3.86 4.08 4.32 4.59 4.87

Year over year Growth           5.80 5.94 6.10 6.26