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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Apartment Update For 06-30-14 3 comments
    Jul 2, 2014 8:24 PM
    Apartment Update for 06-30-14

    Yields are calculated on the Q2-14 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change is since Q1-13. ESS purchased BRE - each BRE share converted into 0.2971 newly issued shares of ESS plus $12.33 in cash. ACC, PPS and UDR increased their Q2-14 dividends. ESS has announce its Q3-14 dividend to be $1.30 - up from $1.21.


        Share Price 14 FFO Est Q2-14 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM
    Company and ticker 1-01 06-30 1-01 06-30 Yield FFO14 FFO15 Price Pr+Div FFO Target Div

    Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE:AIV) 25.91 32.27 2.17 2.07 3.22 50.24 47.49 24.55 26.55 -4.61 4.57 8.33
    Avalonbay Communities Inc. (NYSE:AVB) 118.23 142.19 6.77 6.76 3.26 68.64 63.30 20.27 22.23 -0.15 4.76 8.41
    Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) 56.88 71.15 4.27 4.24 3.71 62.26 58.80 25.09 27.41 -0.70 5.88 4.76
    Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) 51.87 63.00 3.11 3.09 3.17 64.72 60.79 21.46 23.39 -0.64 7.31 25.00
    Essex Property Trust Inc. (NYSE:ESS) 143.51 184.91 8.29 7.30 2.62 66.30 52.84 28.85 29.69 -11.94 8.81 0.00
    Home Properties Inc. (NYSE:HME) 53.62 63.96 4.52 4.46 4.57 65.47 62.39 19.28 22.01 -1.33 2.02 4.29
    Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE:MAA) 60.74 73.05 4.99 5.15 4.00 56.70 52.42 20.27 22.67 3.21 6.84 5.04
    Post Properties Inc. (NYSE:PPS) 45.23 53.46 2.76 2.47 2.69 58.30 51.61 18.20 19.79 -10.51 1.32 9.09
    UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) 23.35 28.63 1.49 1.51 3.63 68.87 64.60 22.61 24.84 1.34 5.27 10.64

    Apartment Average         3.43 62.39   22.28 24.29 -2.81 5.20 8.40
    Student Housing
    American Campus Communities, Inc. (NYSE:ACC) 32.21 38.24 2.33 2.34 3.97 64.96 61.04 18.72 21.08 0.43 3.63 5.56
    Education Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:EDR) 8.82 10.74 0.64 0.62 4.10 70.97 61.11 21.77 24.26 -3.13 6.82 10.00

    Student Housing Average               20.24 22.67 -1.35      

    Sector Average         3.54 63.40   21.91 23.99 -2.55 5.20 8.28

    Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 06-30


      FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
    Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

    AIV 144 168 204 207 219 21.43% 1.47% 5.80% 15.82 15.59 14.74 210 202 3.86%
    AVB 460 544 505 676 733 -7.17% 33.86% 8.43% 28.16 21.03 19.40 686 670 2.37%
    CPT 272 362 411 424 449 13.54% 3.16% 5.90% 17.31 16.78 15.85 429 420 2.12%
    EQR 242 276 235 309 329 -14.86% 31.49% 6.47% 26.81 20.39 19.15 317 304 4.21%
    ESS 570 671 759 730 916 13.11% -3.82% 25.48% 24.36 25.33 20.19 810 706 14.25%
    HME 348 413 437 446 468 5.81% 2.06% 4.93% 14.64 14.34 13.67 449 434 3.36%
    MAA 398 457 435 515 557 -4.81% 18.39% 8.16% 16.79 14.18 13.11 522 512 1.94%
    PPS 189 284 301 247 279 5.99% -17.94% 12.96% 17.76 21.64 19.16 264 228 14.57%
    UDR 127 132 144 151 161 9.09% 4.86% 6.62% 19.88 18.96 17.78 152 149 1.99%

    Average         4.68 8.17 9.42 20.17 18.69 17.00  
    Student Housing
    ACC 179 191 222 234 249 16.23% 5.41% 6.41% 17.23 16.34 15.36 236 232 1.71%
    EDR 41 46 55 62 72 19.57% 12.73% 16.13% 19.53 17.32 14.92 66 56 16.13%

    Sector Average       7.08 8.33 9.75 19.84 18.36 16.67  

    Dividend History based on Q4 Dividends


      Dividends/Share/Quarter Percentage Dividend Growth Average
    Co. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 2011-13

    AIV 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.100 0.100 0.120 0.200 0.240 0.00 -83.33 0.00 20.00 66.67 20.00 43.33
    AVB 0.710 0.780 0.850 0.892 0.892 0.892 0.892 0.970 1.070 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.68 10.31 9.50
    CPT 0.635 0.660 0.690 0.700 0.450 0.450 0.490 0.560 0.630 1.45 -35.71 0.00 8.89 14.29 12.50 13.39
    EQR 0.432 0.443 0.463 0.482 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.400 4.32 -30.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.52 9.26
    ESS 0.810 0.840 0.930 1.020 1.030 1.032 1.040 1.100 1.210 9.68 0.98 0.24 0.73 5.77 10.00 7.88
    HME 0.630 0.650 0.660 0.670 0.670 0.580 0.620 0.660 0.700 1.52 0.00 -13.43 6.90 6.45 6.06 6.26
    MAA 0.595 0.595 0.605 0.615 0.615 0.615 0.627 0.660 0.695 1.65 0.00 0.00 2.03 5.18 5.30 5.24
    PPS 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.450 0.200 0.200 0.220 0.250 0.330 0.00 -55.56 0.00 10.00 13.64 32.00 22.82
    UDR 0.300 0.313 0.330 0.330 0.180 0.185 0.200 0.220 0.235 0.00 -45.45 2.78 8.11 10.00 6.82 8.41
    ACC 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.338 0.360 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 3.33
    EDR 0.300 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.050 0.050 0.070 0.100 0.110 0.00 -75.61 0.00 40.00 42.86 10.00 26.43
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Comments (3)
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  • surfgeezer
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Really wanted some Apt Reits and you just really saved me a ton of research. PM me if you are ever in LA and I will buy lunch.
    Look like I am too late, as I suspected. Yields to low for me.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (1089) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AVB and ESS did not cut their dividend as a result of the credit crisis. The dividend/FFO ratio for the group is consistently on the low side. (The bad news - only UDR reports AFFO. There would be significant improvements in transparency if multi-family REITs reported FAD.) Using a consistent 8% RRR and using conservative CAGRs - the dividend discount model says that all but PPS and EDR are significantly under valued. Several years of low apartment construction should result in their not being a problem with over supply for years. LTM dividend growth for several of these companies has been good - with the projection that this will continue. The FFO projections spreads are very low (lack of visibility on merger costs hurts the spread on ESS).
    In summation - relatively lower risk and relatively higher growth results in relatively lower yields. The low yields are logically justified. But (and this is a BIG "but") the sector can be sensitive to changes in interest rates. That is one of the reasons why the whole REIT sector is up in 2014. So this is a suboptimal time to buy.
    3 Jul 2014, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • WARRENWATT
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    Factoids : Thanks for sharing. From a stand point of valuation this sector is the most solid in reitdom, the only thing that could change that would be substantial mortgage affordability / income growth for young nesters. As long as the tea people control the house it won't happen
    4 Jul 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
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