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  • Apartment Update For 06-30-14 3 comments
    Jul 2, 2014 8:24 PM
    Apartment Update for 06-30-14

    Yields are calculated on the Q2-14 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change is since Q1-13. ESS purchased BRE - each BRE share converted into 0.2971 newly issued shares of ESS plus $12.33 in cash. ACC, PPS and UDR increased their Q2-14 dividends. ESS has announce its Q3-14 dividend to be $1.30 - up from $1.21.


      Share Price14 FFO EstQ2-14Div/Div/Percent ChangeLTM
    Company and ticker1-0106-301-0106-30YieldFFO14FFO15PricePr+DivFFOTargetDiv

    Apartment Investment and Management Company(NYSE:AIV)25.9132.272.172.073.2250.2447.4924.5526.55-4.614.578.33
    Avalonbay Communities Inc.(NYSE:AVB)118.23142.196.776.763.2668.6463.3020.2722.23-0.154.768.41
    Camden Property Trust(NYSE:CPT)56.8871.154.274.243.7162.2658.8025.0927.41-0.705.884.76
    Equity Residential(NYSE:EQR)51.8763.003.113.093.1764.7260.7921.4623.39-0.647.3125.00
    Essex Property Trust Inc.(NYSE:ESS)143.51184.918.297.302.6266.3052.8428.8529.69-11.948.810.00
    Home Properties Inc.(NYSE:HME)53.6263.964.524.464.5765.4762.3919.2822.01-1.332.024.29
    Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc.(NYSE:MAA)60.7473.054.995.154.0056.7052.4220.2722.673.216.845.04
    Post Properties Inc.(NYSE:PPS)45.2353.462.762.472.6958.3051.6118.2019.79-10.511.329.09
    UDR, Inc.(NYSE:UDR)23.3528.631.491.513.6368.8764.6022.6124.841.345.2710.64

    Apartment Average    3.4362.39 22.2824.29-2.815.208.40
    Student Housing
    American Campus Communities, Inc.(NYSE:ACC)32.2138.242.332.343.9764.9661.0418.7221.080.433.635.56
    Education Realty Trust, Inc.(NYSE:EDR)8.8210.740.640.624.1070.9761.1121.7724.26-3.136.8210.00

    Student Housing Average       20.2422.67-1.35   

    Sector Average    3.5463.40 21.9123.99-2.555.208.28

    Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 06-30


     FFO / Share% FFO GrowthPrice/FFO14 FFO Range
    Co.2011201220132014201512-1313-1414-15201320142015HighLowRange

    AIV14416820420721921.43%1.47%5.80%15.8215.5914.742102023.86%
    AVB460544505676733-7.17%33.86%8.43%28.1621.0319.406866702.37%
    CPT27236241142444913.54%3.16%5.90%17.3116.7815.854294202.12%
    EQR242276235309329-14.86%31.49%6.47%26.8120.3919.153173044.21%
    ESS57067175973091613.11%-3.82%25.48%24.3625.3320.1981070614.25%
    HME3484134374464685.81%2.06%4.93%14.6414.3413.674494343.36%
    MAA398457435515557-4.81%18.39%8.16%16.7914.1813.115225121.94%
    PPS1892843012472795.99%-17.94%12.96%17.7621.6419.1626422814.57%
    UDR1271321441511619.09%4.86%6.62%19.8818.9617.781521491.99%

    Average    4.688.179.4220.1718.6917.00 
    Student Housing
    ACC17919122223424916.23%5.41%6.41%17.2316.3415.362362321.71%
    EDR414655627219.57%12.73%16.13%19.5317.3214.92665616.13%

    Sector Average   7.088.339.7519.8418.3616.67 

    Dividend History based on Q4 Dividends


     Dividends/Share/QuarterPercentage Dividend GrowthAverage
    Co.20052006200720082009201020112012201307-0808-0909-1010-1111-1212-132011-13

    AIV0.6000.6000.6000.6000.1000.1000.1200.2000.2400.00-83.330.0020.0066.6720.0043.33
    AVB0.7100.7800.8500.8920.8920.8920.8920.9701.0705.000.000.000.008.6810.319.50
    CPT0.6350.6600.6900.7000.4500.4500.4900.5600.6301.45-35.710.008.8914.2912.5013.39
    EQR0.4320.4430.4630.4820.3380.3380.3380.3380.4004.32-30.050.000.000.0018.529.26
    ESS0.8100.8400.9301.0201.0301.0321.0401.1001.2109.680.980.240.735.7710.007.88
    HME0.6300.6500.6600.6700.6700.5800.6200.6600.7001.520.00-13.436.906.456.066.26
    MAA0.5950.5950.6050.6150.6150.6150.6270.6600.6951.650.000.002.035.185.305.24
    PPS0.4500.4500.4500.4500.2000.2000.2200.2500.3300.00-55.560.0010.0013.6432.0022.82
    UDR0.3000.3130.3300.3300.1800.1850.2000.2200.2350.00-45.452.788.1110.006.828.41
    ACC0.3380.3380.3380.3380.3380.3380.3380.3380.3600.000.000.000.000.006.673.33
    EDR0.3000.2050.2050.2050.0500.0500.0700.1000.1100.00-75.610.0040.0042.8610.0026.43
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Comments (3)
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  • surfgeezer
    , contributor
    Comments (8224) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Really wanted some Apt Reits and you just really saved me a ton of research. PM me if you are ever in LA and I will buy lunch.
    Look like I am too late, as I suspected. Yields to low for me.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (709) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AVB and ESS did not cut their dividend as a result of the credit crisis. The dividend/FFO ratio for the group is consistently on the low side. (The bad news - only UDR reports AFFO. There would be significant improvements in transparency if multi-family REITs reported FAD.) Using a consistent 8% RRR and using conservative CAGRs - the dividend discount model says that all but PPS and EDR are significantly under valued. Several years of low apartment construction should result in their not being a problem with over supply for years. LTM dividend growth for several of these companies has been good - with the projection that this will continue. The FFO projections spreads are very low (lack of visibility on merger costs hurts the spread on ESS).
    In summation - relatively lower risk and relatively higher growth results in relatively lower yields. The low yields are logically justified. But (and this is a BIG "but") the sector can be sensitive to changes in interest rates. That is one of the reasons why the whole REIT sector is up in 2014. So this is a suboptimal time to buy.
    3 Jul 2014, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • WARRENWATT
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Factoids : Thanks for sharing. From a stand point of valuation this sector is the most solid in reitdom, the only thing that could change that would be substantial mortgage affordability / income growth for young nesters. As long as the tea people control the house it won't happen
    4 Jul 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
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