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Health Care REIT Stats 7-11-14

Health Care Update for Q3-14

Yields are calculated on Q2-14 dividends. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The percent change columns measures the changes since the beginning of the year. LTM (last twelve month) dividend growth uses Q2-14 minus Q2-13 normalized dividend/share divided by Q2-13 dividend. LTM FFO growth uses Q1-14 minus Q1-13 normalized FFO/share divided by Q1-13 normalized FFO. LTM FAD growth does not use quarterly numbers - but the 2014 midpoint of the yearly guidance. The sector average LTM dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. NHI, OHI and SBRA announced dividend increases in Q2-14.


  Share Price 2014 FFO Estimate   Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM Growth
Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 07-11 1-01 07-11 Yield FFO FAD Price Pr+Div 14 FFO Target Div FFO FAD

Aviv REIT, Inc. (NYSE:AVIV) 23.70 28.00 1.85 1.89 5.14 76.19 75.39 18.14 22.70 2.16 9.35 0.00% 0.0% 11.0%
Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE:DOC) 12.24 14.35 0.98 0.88 6.27 102.27 90.91 17.24 20.92 -10.20 4.24 0.00% 300.0% 7.6%
Health Care REIT, Inc. (NYSE:HCN) 53.57 62.82 4.00 4.07 5.06 78.13 88.33 17.27 20.24 1.75 2.70 3.92% 9.9% 7.1%
Health Care Properties (NYSE:HCP) 36.32 41.20 3.06 3.03 5.29 71.95 87.20 13.44 16.44 -0.98 -1.86 3.81% 1.4% -0.8%
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (NYSE:HR) 21.31 25.24 1.41 1.45 4.75 82.76 81.63 18.44 21.26 2.84 -0.41 0.00% 9.4% 10.5%
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (NYSE:HTA) 9.84 12.21 0.69 0.73 4.71 78.77 92.74 24.09 28.47 5.80 10.54 0.00% 12.5% 6.9%
LTC Properties Inc. (NYSE:LTC) 35.39 39.14 2.65 2.60 5.21 78.46 81.60 10.60 13.48 -1.89 2.76 9.68% 3.3% 6.8%
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE:MPW) 12.22 12.96 1.12 1.09 6.48 77.06 79.25 6.06 11.21 -2.68 0.68 5.00% 4.0% 14.0%
National Health Investors (NYSE:NHI) 56.10 62.23 4.13 4.21 4.95 73.16 82.80 10.93 13.55 1.94 2.45 4.76% 23.5% 6.3%
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (NYSE:OHI) 29.80 37.44 2.73 2.79 5.34 71.68 80.00 25.64 28.93 2.20 5.85 8.70% 7.9% 11.1%
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (NASDAQ:SBRA) 26.14 28.64 2.20 2.23 5.31 68.16 71.03 9.56 12.32 1.36 2.21 11.76% 19.6% 21.6%
Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE:SNH) 22.23 24.00 1.74 1.76 6.50 88.64 97.50 7.96 11.47 1.15 -2.20 0.00% 0.0% 1.9%
Universal Health Realty Income Trust (NYSE:UHT) 40.06 43.40 2.80 2.83 5.81 89.05 90.65 8.34 11.46 1.07 0.00 0.80% -1.4% 1.1%
Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) 57.28 64.20 4.36 4.39 4.52 66.06 68.40 12.08 14.61 0.69 1.98 8.21% 5.8% 7.1%

Average           5.38 78.09 82.69 14.27 17.67 0.37 2.73 4.72% 33.0% 9.4%

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Dividend dates are:

AVIV: 07-10-14 DOC: 07-31-14 HCN: 05-19-14 HCP: 05-26-14 HR : 05-29-14 HTA: 07-02-14 LTC: monthly
MPW: 07-09-14 NHI: 05-08-14 OHI: 05-14-14 SBRA: 05-29-14 SNH: 05-20-14 UHT: 06-29-14 VTR: 06-26-14
Click to enlarge

Historical yields for the sector:

Mar 2005: 6.99% June: 6.09% Sept: 6.22% Dec: 6.73%
Mar 2006: 6.18% June: 6.79% Sept: 5.85% Dec: 5.28%
Mar 2007: 5.33% June: 6.24% Sept: 5.90% Dec: 5.77%
Mar 2008: 5.84% June: 6.33% Sept: 5.25% Dec: 6.89%
Mar 2009: 9.11% June: 7.88% Sept: 6.67% Dec: 6.31%
Mar 2010: 6.67% June: 6.09% Sept: 5.62% Dec: 5.75%
Mar 2011: 5.48% June: 5.64% Sept: 6.02% Dec: 5.34%
Mar 2012: 5.16% June: 4.84% Sept: 4.89% Dec: 4.69%
Mar 2013: 4.66% June: 5.09% Sept: 5.49% Dec: 6.02%
Mar 2014: 5.63% June: 5.37% Sept: Dec:
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Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 07-11

The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2014 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79. The DOC FFO projection fell 50%, distorting the 2013 sector ratio. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65% before the addition of the newbies. AVIV and DOC do not distort the 2014 and 2015 sector average ratios.


  FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

AVIV 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 1.89 2.10 na 50.00 11.11 22.22 14.81 13.33 196 183 6.88%
DOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.88 1.15 na 238.46 30.68 55.19 16.31 12.48 94 82 13.64%
HCN 3.13 3.41 3.51 3.36 4.07 4.28 -4.27 21.13 5.16 18.70 15.43 14.68 415 395 4.91%
HCP 2.19 2.69 2.76 3.01 3.03 3.13 9.06 0.66 3.30 13.69 13.60 13.16 310 299 3.63%
HR 1.29 1.15 1.31 1.32 1.45 1.56 0.76 9.85 7.59 19.12 17.41 16.18 147 143 2.76%
HTA 0.38 0.51 0.61 0.64 0.73 0.79 4.92 14.06 8.22 19.08 16.73 15.46 77 72 6.85%
LTC 1.88 2.15 2.26 2.37 2.60 2.80 4.87 9.70 7.69 16.51 15.05 13.98 262 257 1.92%
MPW 0.66 0.71 0.90 0.96 1.09 1.18 6.67 13.54 8.26 13.50 11.89 10.98 113 105 7.34%
NHI 2.76 2.88 3.18 3.55 4.21 4.42 11.64 18.59 4.99 17.53 14.78 14.08 437 414 5.46%
OHI 1.61 1.89 2.19 2.53 2.79 2.83 15.53 10.28 1.43 14.80 13.42 13.23 287 270 6.09%
SBRA 0.00 1.31 1.41 1.84 2.23 2.39 30.50 21.20 7.17 15.57 12.84 11.98 230 219 4.93%
SNH 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.69 1.76 1.85 -3.43 4.14 5.11 14.20 13.64 12.97 180 168 6.82%
UHT 2.61 2.57 2.84 2.77 2.83 2.89 -2.46 2.17 2.12 15.67 15.34 15.02 283 283 0.00%
VTR 2.85 3.37 3.80 4.14 4.39 4.59 8.95 6.04 4.56 15.51 14.62 13.99 447 424 5.24%

Average           6.89 29.99 7.67 19.38 14.71 13.68

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Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
Mar 2011: 15.07 June: 14.62 Sept: 12.91 Dec: 14.95
Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: 15.21 Dec: 16.67
Mar 2014: 13.92 June: 14.73 Sept: Dec:
Click to enlarge

The new additions AVIV and DOC skewed the sector average higher in 2013. For example - without those two, the December ending average would have been 14.07.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations
Bond yields were last updated 6-20-14


Company Q2-14 My Projected S&P FINRA Proj FFO Fixed My Total Consensus Price Div
    Yield CAGR Total Bond Bond Historical Charge RRRs Return Ratings Implied / FAD
        Return Rate Yield Accuracy Coverage   - RRR   CAGR Ratio

Aviv REIT, Inc. AVIV 5.14% 5.20% 10.34% BB 4.72 3.0 3.3 10.60 -0.26 2.6 5.46 75.39
Physicians Realty Trust DOC 6.27% 3.20% 9.47% NR 0.00 3.0 2.8 9.00 0.47 1.7 2.73 90.91
Health Care REIT, Inc. HCN 5.06% 4.40% 9.46% BBB 3.86 3.5 2.8 9.20 0.26 2.6 4.14 88.33
Health Care Properties HCP 5.29% 4.00% 9.29% BBB+ 3.93 1.5 3.7 9.20 0.09 2.7 3.91 87.20
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR 4.75% 2.50% 7.25% BBB- 3.99 4.0 2.7 7.60 -0.35 3.1 2.85 81.63
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. HTA 4.71% 2.70% 7.41% BBB 4.17 1.5 3.5 7.40 0.01 2.4 2.69 92.74
LTC Properties Inc. LTC 5.21% 4.40% 9.61% NR 0.00 1.5 6.6 9.60 0.01 2.8 4.39 81.60
Medical Properties Trust Inc. MPW 6.48% 4.50% 10.98% BB 0.00 3.0 0.0 11.50 -0.52 2.9 5.02 79.25
National Health Investors NHI 4.95% 5.40% 10.35% NR 0.00 1.2 8.0 9.60 0.75 2.7 4.65 82.80
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. OHI 5.34% 5.00% 10.34% BBB- 4.72 2.0 4.2 10.50 -0.16 3.1 5.16 80.00
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. SBRA 5.31% 5.80% 11.11% BB- 4.88 2.0 2.9 10.60 0.51 2.0 5.29 71.03
Senior Housing Properties Trust SNH 6.50% 1.80% 8.30% BBB- 4.42 3.0 3.8 8.70 -0.40 3.5 2.20 97.50
Universal Health Realty Income Trust UHT 5.81% 2.60% 8.41% NR 0.00 3.5 0.0 9.50 -1.09 3.0 3.69 90.65
Ventas, Inc. VTR 4.52% 5.80% 10.32% BBB+ 3.84 1.5 4.6 9.50 0.82 2.7 4.98 68.40

Average   5.38% 4.09% 9.47%             2.7
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