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MLP Midstream Stats And Valuation Assessments

MLP Midstream 07-18-14

The consensus DCFs were last updated on 06-14-14. The CAGR projections were updated 6-30-14. Yields are based on the Q2-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q2-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year. OILT and SXL have had price splits that are not reflected in this data.


Company   Current Distrib/ Q2 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ACMP) 63.12 0.5750 3.64 70.12 66.47 11.56 13.59 -3.11 21.55 1.86 23.13 0.00
American Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:AMID) 29.23 0.4625 6.33 97.88 84.09 7.94 11.36 0.00 17.32 -8.70 6.94 40.00
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:APL) 35.29 0.6200 7.03 91.85 85.22 0.68 4.22 -95.24 -14.60 -8.47 5.08 4.29
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:BKEP) 8.90 0.1300 5.84 67.53 55.32 4.58 7.64 -56.60 0.00 -25.24 10.64 2.35
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE:BPL) 81.81 1.1000 5.38 95.86 87.30 15.21 18.31 -0.54 9.04 -2.34 4.76 20.00
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE:BWP) 19.27 0.1000 2.08 24.24 23.67 -24.49 -23.71 -22.31 -36.76 -16.67 -81.22 0.00
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:CMLP) 23.40 0.4100 7.01 93.71 84.97 -5.99 -2.69 -26.79 -7.01 -5.41 3.80 16.67
DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:DPM) 57.29 0.7450 5.20 93.71 83.94 13.78 16.74 -7.08 6.88 -3.34 6.43 4.48
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EPB) 35.71 0.6500 7.28 97.74 95.94 -0.81 2.81 -16.50 -10.66 3.10 4.84 8.70
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EEP) 35.33 0.5435 6.15 106.57 100.18 18.28 21.92 -14.29 10.08 -3.77 0.00 33.33
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) 77.82 0.7100 3.65 67.62 64.99 17.38 19.52 5.03 12.87 1.20 5.97 0.00
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) 56.79 0.9350 6.59 81.30 83.86 -0.80 2.46 12.35 4.35 -1.92 4.62 8.11
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:EQM) 95.08 0.4900 2.06 57.65 46.12 61.73 63.40 21.76 54.50 9.68 32.43 1.05
Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) 28.94 0.5375 7.43 78.75 83.01 -4.27 -0.71 -41.27 5.99 4.60 3.86 0.00
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) 55.77 0.5500 3.94 78.85 67.90 6.09 8.18 -19.79 5.90 -5.10 10.55 4.65
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE:HEP) 34.15 0.5075 5.94 89.43 83.20 5.63 8.77 5.08 1.78 3.65 6.28 0.00
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMP) 82.64 1.3800 6.68 97.87 94.68 2.45 5.88 1.84 -3.95 -1.57 6.15 -31.91
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) 85.04 0.6125 2.88 72.27 66.04 34.41 36.34 18.71 35.26 10.42 20.69 2.27
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:MWE) 73.85 0.8700 4.71 89.23 75.65 11.67 14.31 -45.68 -7.58 -10.14 4.82 -12.64
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) 69.99 0.7625 4.36 77.02 73.49 33.82 36.74 55.63 20.82 12.82 9.32 7.25
NuStar Energy L.P. (NYSE:NS) 65.11 1.0950 6.73 107.88 97.77 27.69 31.99 6.99 22.70 6.56 0.00 6.67
ONEOK Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OKS) 57.87 0.7450 5.15 89.22 82.78 9.91 12.74 9.67 5.21 0.00 4.20 0.00
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OILT) 100.00 0.4950 1.98 58.41 51.03 61.11 62.70 -7.57 53.52 20.21 22.22 19.48
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) 59.07 0.6300 4.27 86.01 78.50 14.10 16.53 -8.24 3.35 -6.39 9.57 0.00
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE:RGP) 31.98 0.4800 6.00 93.66 84.21 21.78 25.44 -5.77 11.36 -0.97 4.35 25.00
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:SEP) 53.68 0.5563 4.15 83.65 83.97 18.37 20.82 5.08 13.02 3.10 10.97 -1.54
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL) 91.14 0.6950 3.05 63.33 59.66 20.75 22.59 -4.67 28.43 -4.77 21.40 1.12
TC PipeLines, LP (NYSE:TCP) 52.38 0.8100 6.19 85.26 83.08 8.16 11.50 14.59 5.34 2.70 3.85 -10.00
Tesoro Logistics LP (NYSE:TLLP) 71.89 0.5900 3.28 85.51 71.52 37.35 39.61 5.49 20.81 -10.10 20.41 5.88
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (NYSE:TLP) 43.75 0.6600 6.03 70.59 77.65 2.94 6.05 -5.86 2.62 6.86 3.13 -6.67
Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE:WES) 78.60 0.6250 3.18 79.37 69.44 27.41 29.44 0.87 9.14 3.28 15.74 0.00
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE:WPZ) 53.56 0.9045 6.76 97.00 90.45 5.31 8.87 -10.28 6.50 4.48 6.73 -1.85
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:ENLK) 31.56 0.3600 4.56 95.36 77.42 14.35 16.96 2.17 16.71 -3.82 9.09 2.35

Pipeline Average     5.02 82.56 76.17 14.49 17.28 -6.86 9.83 6.46 6.69  
Shipping
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) 19.26 0.4425 9.19 111.32 97.25 0.73 5.36 -4.11 8.48 -9.14 0.00 0.00
Martin Midstream Partners LP (NASDAQ:MMLP) 41.08 0.7875 7.67 95.45 82.03 -4.02 -0.34 -1.25 -0.84 -5.17 1.61 6.06
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (NYSE:TGP) 45.00 0.6918 6.15 93.49 90.14 5.36 8.60 12.62 2.57 0.34 2.49 0.00

Shipping Average     7.67 100.09   0.69 4.54 2.42 3.40    

MidStream Average   5.24 84.02 77.30 13.34 16.22 -6.09 9.30    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 12.31% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 12.25% and with dividends is 14.73%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 7.05% and with dividends is 8.00%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -0.98% and with dividend is -0.72%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.48% & the sector average yield [on Q2 distrib's] at 5.24% - the spread is 276 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.67% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -43 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.40% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -16 bps.

Based on most valuation metrics, it is a sub-optimal time to buy. If you must buy, the following spreadsheet should be a good guide for those purchases. If you are one of the many who don't "get it" when I write that valuation assessments should be made on the basis of "yield + CAGR - RRR", then this would be a good time to address those questions. I will make an effort to reply to all "liked" questions.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distribution
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR /14 DCF
Large Cap Midstream
Buckeye Partners, L.P. BPL 5.38% 4.80% 10.18% BBB- 2.50 10.40 -0.22 2.6 5.02 95.86
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP BWP 2.08% 1.00% 3.08% BBB- 4.00 10.70 -7.62 3.1 8.62 24.24
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. EPB 7.28% 2.50% 9.78% BBB 1.20 10.30 -0.52 3.1 3.02 97.74
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. EEP 6.15% 2.00% 8.15% BBB 2.60 10.50 -2.35 2.9 4.35 106.57
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD 3.65% 6.70% 10.35% BBB+ 1.20 9.70 0.65 1.6 6.05 67.62
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. ETP 6.59% 4.00% 10.59% BBB- 2.50 10.70 -0.11 2.3 4.11 81.30
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. KMP 6.68% 3.20% 9.88% BBB 1.20 10.00 -0.12 2.5 3.32 97.87
Magellan Midstream Partners LP MMP 2.88% 9.00% 11.88% BBB+ 1.00 10.00 1.88 2.4 7.12 72.27
NuStar Energy L.P. NS 6.73% 1.60% 8.33% BB+ 3.50 11.50 -3.17 3.1 4.77 107.88
ONEOK Partners, L.P. OKS 5.15% 6.70% 11.85% BBB 1.40 10.50 1.35 2.1 5.35 89.22
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA 4.27% 8.00% 12.27% BBB 1.10 10.00 2.27 1.8 5.73 86.01
Williams Partners L.P. WPZ 6.76% 5.30% 12.06% BBB 2.50 11.00 1.06 2.2 4.24 97.00

Average   5.30% 4.57% 9.87%         2.48

Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Small Cap Midstream
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. BKEP 5.84% 8.70% 14.54% none 4.00 13.50 1.04 3.3 7.66 67.53
Genesis Energy LP GEL 3.94% 9.00% 12.94% BB- 3.00 11.80 1.14 2.2 7.86 78.85
Holly Energy Partners L.P. HEP 5.94% 6.00% 11.94% BB- 1.20 11.20 0.74 3.1 5.26 89.43
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. OILT 1.98% 9.20% 11.18% none 1.40 10.50 0.68 2.4 8.52 58.41
Spectra Energy Partners, LP SEP 4.15% 6.40% 10.55% BB 1.50 10.50 0.05 3.1 6.35 83.65
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. SXL 3.05% 9.00% 12.05% BBB- 1.00 10.00 2.05 2.6 6.95 63.33
TC PipeLines, LP TCP 6.19% 2.70% 8.89% BBB- 1.00 10.00 -1.11 3.6 3.81 85.26
Tesoro Logistics LP TLLP 3.28% 9.00% 12.28% BB- 2.00 10.00 2.28 1.8 6.72 85.51
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. TLP 6.03% 2.80% 8.83% none 1.00 10.00 -1.17 1.9 3.97 70.59

Average   4.49% 6.98% 11.47%         2.67

Company Q2-14 Consensus Total Bonds DCF My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Distrib
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / DCF
Gathering & Processing
Access Midstream Partners, L.P. ACMP 3.64% 9.60% 13.24% BB- 1.10 12.00 1.24 1.7 8.36 70.12
American Midstream Partners, LP AMID 6.33% 6.30% 12.63% none 5.00 12.50 0.13 2.5 6.17 97.88
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. APL 7.03% 7.30% 14.33% B+ 5.00 13.50 0.83 1.8 6.47 91.85
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP CMLP 7.01% 5.60% 12.61% BB 4.20 12.50 0.11 1.9 5.49 93.71
DCP Midstream Partners LP DPM 5.20% 7.00% 12.20% BBB- 2.60 11.50 0.70 1.9 6.30 93.71
EQT Midstream Partners, LP EQM 2.06% 9.60% 11.66% none 1.30 11.20 0.46 1.7 9.14 57.65
Exterran Partners, L.P. EXLP 7.43% 3.00% 10.43% B 1.70 11.50 -1.07 2.6 4.07 78.75
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. MWE 4.71% 7.60% 12.31% BB 2.70 12.50 -0.19 1.5 7.79 89.23
Targa Resources Partners LP NGLS 4.36% 7.40% 11.76% BB 1.60 12.20 -0.44 2.3 7.84 77.02
Regency Energy Partners LP RGP 6.00% 5.00% 11.00% BB 2.70 12.00 -1.00 2.8 6.00 93.66
Western Gas Partners LP WES 3.18% 9.10% 12.28% BBB- 1.20 10.90 1.38 1.9 7.72 79.37
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP ENLK 4.56% 8.70% 13.26% BBB 3.50 12.70 0.56 2.4 8.14 95.36

Average   5.13% 7.18% 12.31%         2.08
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