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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Health Care REIT Stats Update 8-15-14 2 comments
    Aug 15, 2014 8:30 PM

    After three weeks of working with a less than healthy computer (a HP purchased in April of this year and serviced by Office Depot), I now have a computer that will load Firefox and PDF documents. Firefox is required to use the Seeking Alpha text editor. If I can't open Firefox, I can not submit data to SA. If I can't open PDF documents, I can't gather a lot of data that I use. I have a lot of catching up to do.

    Health Care Update for Q3-14

    Yields are calculated on Q2-14 dividends. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The percent change columns measures the changes since the beginning of the year. LTM (last twelve month) dividend growth uses Q2-14 minus Q2-13 normalized dividend/share divided by Q2-13 dividend. LTM FFO growth uses Q2-14 minus Q2-13 normalized FFO/share divided by Q2-13 normalized FFO. LTM FAD growth does not use quarterly numbers - but the 2014 midpoint of the yearly guidance compared to the 2013 actual. The sector average LTM dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. NHI, OHI and SBRA announced dividend increases in Q2-14. HTA announced an increase in its Q3 dividend.


      Share Price 2014 FFO Estimate   Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM Growth
    Company_name_and_ticker 1-01 08-15 1-01 08-15 Yield FFO FAD Price Pr+Div 14 FFO Target Div FFO FAD

    Aviv REIT, Inc. (NYSE:AVIV) 23.70 27.86 1.85 1.79 5.17 80.45 75.39 17.55 22.11 -3.24 11.00 0.00% -7.0% 11.0%
    Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE:DOC) 12.24 14.42 0.98 0.86 6.24 104.65 90.91 17.81 21.49 -12.24 6.56 0.00% 466.7% 7.6%
    Health Care REIT, Inc. (NYSE:HCN) 53.57 65.31 4.00 4.10 4.87 77.56 87.60 21.92 24.88 2.50 4.68 3.92% 14.0% 8.0%
    Health Care Properties (NYSE:HCP) 36.32 41.89 3.06 3.03 5.20 71.95 86.17 15.34 18.34 -0.98 -0.14 3.81% 4.2% 0.4%
    Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (NYSE:HR) 21.31 24.55 1.41 1.45 4.89 82.76 81.63 15.20 18.02 2.84 2.33 0.00% 12.5% 10.5%
    Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (NYSE:HTA) 9.84 12.28 0.69 0.73 4.68 78.77 89.84 24.80 29.18 5.80 10.54 0.00% 12.5% 10.3%
    LTC Properties Inc. (NYSE:LTC) 35.39 40.31 2.65 2.59 5.06 78.76 81.60 13.90 17.26 -2.26 2.76 9.68% 12.3% 6.8%
    Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE:MPW) 12.22 13.59 1.12 1.08 6.18 77.78 79.25 11.21 16.37 -3.57 -0.23 5.00% 8.3% 14.0%
    National Health Investors (NYSE:NHI) 56.10 63.20 4.13 4.22 4.87 72.99 82.13 12.66 15.28 2.18 2.45 4.76% 20.7% 7.1%
    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (NYSE:OHI) 29.80 37.70 2.73 2.80 5.31 71.43 76.92 26.51 29.80 2.56 3.85 8.70% 11.3% 15.6%
    Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (NASDAQ:SBRA) 26.14 27.81 2.20 2.15 5.47 70.70 71.03 6.39 9.14 -2.27 1.58 11.76% 39.0% 21.6%
    Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE:SNH) 22.23 23.10 1.74 1.76 6.75 88.64 97.50 3.91 7.42 1.15 -1.45 0.00% 2.4% 1.9%
    Universal Health Realty Income Trust (NYSE:UHT) 40.06 43.84 2.80 2.83 5.75 89.05 90.65 9.44 12.56 1.07 0.00 0.80% 3.0% 1.1%
    Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) 57.28 64.93 4.36 4.40 4.47 65.91 68.40 13.36 15.89 0.92 3.09 8.21% 10.9% 7.1%

    Average           5.35 78.73 82.09 15.00 18.44 -0.40 3.36 4.72% 50.9% 10.3%

    Dividend dates are:

    AVIV: 10-09-14 DOC: 07-31-14 HCN: 08-19-14 HCP: 08-25-14 HR : 08-28-14 HTA: 10-02-14 LTC: monthly
    MPW: 07-09-14 NHI: 08-07-14 OHI: 08-14-14 SBRA: 08-28-14 SNH: 08-20-14 UHT: 06-29-14 VTR: 06-26-14

    Historical yields for the sector:

    Mar 2005: 6.99% June: 6.09% Sept: 6.22% Dec: 6.73%
    Mar 2006: 6.18% June: 6.79% Sept: 5.85% Dec: 5.28%
    Mar 2007: 5.33% June: 6.24% Sept: 5.90% Dec: 5.77%
    Mar 2008: 5.84% June: 6.33% Sept: 5.25% Dec: 6.89%
    Mar 2009: 9.11% June: 7.88% Sept: 6.67% Dec: 6.31%
    Mar 2010: 6.67% June: 6.09% Sept: 5.62% Dec: 5.75%
    Mar 2011: 5.48% June: 5.64% Sept: 6.02% Dec: 5.34%
    Mar 2012: 5.16% June: 4.84% Sept: 4.89% Dec: 4.69%
    Mar 2013: 4.66% June: 5.09% Sept: 5.49% Dec: 6.02%
    Mar 2014: 5.63% June: 5.37% Sept: Dec:
    Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 08-15

    The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2014 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79. The DOC FFO projection fell 50%, distorting the 2013 sector ratio. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65% before the addition of the newbies. AVIV and DOC do not distort the 2014 and 2015 sector average ratios.


      FFO / Share % FFO Growth Price/FFO 14 FFO Range
    Co. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

    AVIV 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 1.79 2.05 na 42.06 14.53 22.11 15.56 13.59 196 183 7.26%
    DOC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.86 1.14 na 230.77 32.56 55.46 16.77 12.65 94 82 13.95%
    HCN 3.13 3.41 3.51 3.36 4.10 4.33 -4.27 22.02 5.61 19.44 15.93 15.08 415 395 4.88%
    HCP 2.19 2.69 2.76 3.01 3.03 3.15 9.06 0.66 3.96 13.92 13.83 13.30 310 299 3.63%
    HR 1.29 1.15 1.31 1.32 1.45 1.56 0.76 9.85 7.59 18.60 16.93 15.74 147 143 2.76%
    HTA 0.38 0.51 0.61 0.64 0.73 0.79 4.92 14.06 8.22 19.19 16.82 15.54 77 72 6.85%
    LTC 1.88 2.15 2.26 2.37 2.59 2.80 4.87 9.28 8.11 17.01 15.56 14.40 262 257 1.93%
    MPW 0.66 0.71 0.90 0.96 1.08 1.17 6.67 12.50 8.33 14.16 12.58 11.62 113 105 7.41%
    NHI 2.76 2.88 3.18 3.55 4.22 4.45 11.64 18.87 5.45 17.80 14.98 14.20 437 414 5.45%
    OHI 1.61 1.89 2.19 2.53 2.80 2.91 15.53 10.67 3.93 14.90 13.46 12.96 287 270 6.07%
    SBRA 0.00 1.31 1.41 1.84 2.15 2.36 30.50 16.85 9.77 15.11 12.93 11.78 230 219 5.12%
    SNH 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.69 1.76 1.85 -3.43 4.14 5.11 13.67 13.13 12.49 180 168 6.82%
    UHT 2.61 2.57 2.84 2.77 2.83 2.89 -2.46 2.17 2.12 15.83 15.49 15.17 283 283 0.00%
    VTR 2.85 3.37 3.80 4.14 4.40 4.65 8.95 6.28 5.68 15.68 14.76 13.96 447 424 5.23%

    Average           6.89 28.59 8.64 19.49 14.91 13.75

    Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

    Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
    Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
    Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
    Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
    Mar 2011: 15.07 June: 14.62 Sept: 12.91 Dec: 14.95
    Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
    Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: 15.21 Dec: 16.67
    Mar 2014: 13.92 June: 14.73 Sept: Dec:

    There were some changes in property weightings that have the potential to change my required rates of return. So be aware of that potential in viewing the upcoming spreadsheet. The fixed charge ratios still show Q1-14 data.

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations
    Bond yields were last updated 6-20-14


    Company Q2-14 My Projected S&P FINRA Proj FFO Fixed My Total Consensus Price Div
        Yield CAGR Total Bond Bond Historical Charge RRRs Return Ratings Implied / FAD
            Return Rate Yield Accuracy Coverage   - RRR   CAGR Ratio

    Aviv REIT, Inc. AVIV 5.17% 5.20% 10.37% BB 4.72 3.0 3.3 10.60 -0.23 2.7 5.43 75.39
    Physicians Realty Trust DOC 6.24% 3.20% 9.44% NR 0.00 3.0 2.8 9.00 0.44 1.7 2.76 90.91
    Health Care REIT, Inc. HCN 4.87% 4.40% 9.27% BBB 3.86 3.5 2.8 9.50 -0.23 2.6 4.63 87.60
    Health Care Properties HCP 5.20% 4.00% 9.20% BBB+ 3.93 1.5 3.7 9.10 0.10 2.7 3.90 86.17
    Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR 4.89% 2.50% 7.39% BBB- 3.99 4.0 2.7 7.60 -0.21 3.1 2.71 81.63
    Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. HTA 4.68% 2.70% 7.38% BBB 4.17 1.5 3.5 7.40 -0.02 2.4 2.72 89.84
    LTC Properties Inc. LTC 5.06% 4.40% 9.46% NR 4.50 1.5 6.6 9.60 -0.14 2.7 4.54 81.60
    Medical Properties Trust Inc. MPW 6.18% 4.50% 10.68% BB 0.00 3.0 0.0 11.50 -0.82 2.9 5.32 79.25
    National Health Investors NHI 4.87% 5.40% 10.27% NR 0.00 1.2 8.0 9.60 0.67 2.6 4.73 82.13
    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. OHI 5.31% 5.00% 10.31% BBB- 4.72 2.0 4.2 10.50 -0.19 3.3 5.19 76.92
    Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. SBRA 5.47% 5.80% 11.27% BB- 4.88 2.0 2.9 10.60 0.67 2.2 5.13 71.03
    Senior Housing Properties Trust SNH 6.75% 1.80% 8.55% BBB- 4.42 3.0 3.8 8.90 -0.35 3.5 2.15 97.50
    Universal Health Realty Income Trust UHT 5.75% 2.60% 8.35% NR 0.00 3.5 0.0 9.50 -1.15 3.0 3.75 90.65
    Ventas, Inc. VTR 4.47% 5.80% 10.27% BBB+ 3.84 1.5 4.6 9.50 0.77 2.6 5.03 68.40

    Average   5.35% 4.09% 9.44%             2.7    

    Disclosure: The author is long LTC, OHI, VTR.

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Comments (2)
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  • maybenot
    , contributor
    Comments (6760) | Send Message
     
    Factoids -- thank you. Your charts make it easy to compare the FFO information.

     

    Long VTR, HCP, LTC, NHI
    16 Aug 2014, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • prophet43m
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Factoids!

     

    I have started following you. Your work is extremely informative and appreciated.

     

    Long HCN, OHI, VTR
    16 Aug 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
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