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I am a private investor who has invested in individual stocks for over a decade. I have a BBA from the University of Texas at Austin. I am retired and living off of dividends and distributions from a portfolio of BDCs, consumer staple stocks, MLPs, regional banks and REITs.
  • Technology & Industrial Portfolio 08-18-14 3 comments
    Aug 19, 2014 12:17 AM
    Technology & Industrial Portfolio 08-18-14

    The Q2-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. This is another sector where the fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. ACN and BBL pay dividends only twice per year - and that quirk is accounted for in the yield calculation and the dividend/EPS ratio. CAT and DE have increased their Q3-14 dividend - which is temporarily encoded as the Q2-14 dividend.


        12-31-13 Current Dividend Current Div/EPS Percent Change
    Company   Price Price /Quarter Yield Ratio Price Pr+Div 14 EPS Target Div*

    Accenture PLC ACN 82.22 79.81 0.930 2.33 41% -2.93 -1.80 0.44 5.53 14.81
    Apple Inc. AAPL 561.02 694.12 3.290 1.90 30% 23.72 25.48 1.37 24.86 7.87
    Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT 17.68 22.10 0.100 1.81 38% 25.00 26.13 -1.85 29.49 0.00
    Automatic Data Processing ADP 80.80 83.25 0.480 2.31 61% 3.03 4.22 -0.95 8.05 10.34
    Broadcom Corp. BRCM 29.65 38.13 0.120 1.26 17% 28.60 29.41 14.06 37.76 9.09
    Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 22.43 24.63 0.190 3.09 37% 9.81 12.35 3.03 11.96 11.76
    International Business Machines IBM 187.57 189.36 1.100 2.32 25% 0.95 2.13 -0.61 0.90 15.79
    Intel Corporation INTC 25.95 34.41 0.225 2.62 41% 32.60 34.34 15.34 37.76 0.00
    Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP 44.75 47.03 0.355 3.02 58% 5.09 6.68 1.24 9.87 0.85
    MicroSoft Corporation MSFT 37.41 45.11 0.280 2.48 41% 20.58 22.08 1.87 29.05 21.74
    Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. MXIM 27.90 30.80 0.260 3.38 63% 10.39 12.26 -1.79 3.26 8.33
    National Instruments Corporation NATI 32.02 32.98 0.150 1.82 67% 3.00 3.94 -6.32 2.13 7.14
    QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM 74.25 75.03 0.420 2.24 32% 1.05 2.18 5.77 8.89 20.00
    Texas Instruments Inc. TXN 43.91 47.56 0.300 2.52 50% 8.31 10.36 12.09 23.63 7.14
    BHP Billiton plc BBL 62.12 69.52 1.180 3.39 59% 11.91 13.81 -17.62 8.67 3.51
    Caterpillar Inc. CAT 90.81 106.98 0.710 2.65 45% 17.81 20.15 8.09 25.00 18.33
    Deere & Company DE 91.33 86.11 0.600 2.79 29% -5.72 -4.40 0.24 1.42 17.65
    E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. DD 64.97 65.87 0.450 2.73 45% 1.39 2.77 -6.73 6.98 0.00
    General Dynamics Corp. GD 95.55 121.18 0.620 2.05 33% 26.82 28.77 4.43 36.12 10.71
    General Electric Company GE 28.03 26.07 0.220 3.38 52% -6.99 -5.42 -1.75 3.15 15.79
    Honeywell International Inc. HON 91.37 95.26 0.450 1.89 32% 4.26 5.24 0.00 13.10 9.76
    3M Company MMM 140.25 144.12 0.855 2.37 46% 2.76 3.98 0.27 11.36 34.65
    Monsanto Company MON 116.55 119.43 0.430 1.44 33% 2.47 3.21 -0.76 17.48 14.67
    United Technologies Corp. UTX 113.80 108.09 0.590 2.18 34% -5.02 -3.98 0.59 6.94 10.28

    Average         2.42 44 % 9.12 10.58 1.27 15.14 13.11

    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 6.86% year to date.
    The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] - with unreinvested dividends - is up 7.81% year to date.
    With the 10 Treasury at 2.38% and the sector average yield [on Q2 Divs] at 2.42% - the spread is 14 basis points.
    * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

    Dividend dates are:

    ACN: 05-14-14 AAPL: 08-13-14 AMAT: 09-10-14 ADP: 09-30-14 BRCM: 06-15-14
    CSCO: 06-22-14 IBM: 09-09-14 INTC: 08-31-14 MCHP: 09-03-14 MSFT: 09-10-14
    MXIM: 09-03-14 NATI: 09-01-14 QCOM: 09-23-14 TXN: 08-17-14
    BBL: 3-25-14 CAT: 08-19-14 DE: 07-31-14 DD: 09-11-14 GD: 08-13-14
    GE: 07-24-14 HON: 09-09-14 MMM: 09-11-14 MON: 10-30-14 UTX: 09-09-14

    Price/Earnings Ratios 08-18
    Companies that have fiscal years that match calendar years: BRCM, IBM, INTC, NATI, TXN, CAT, DD, GD, GE, HON, MMM & UTX


      EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 14 EPS Range YearEnd
    Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

    ACN 3.40 3.84 4.21 4.53 4.93 12.94 9.64 7.60 8.83 18.96 17.62 16.19 4.56 4.50 1.32% Aug
    AAPL 27.68 44.15 39.75 44.31 49.21 59.50 -9.97 11.47 11.06 17.46 15.67 14.11 45.64 42.77 6.48% Sep
    AMAT 1.30 0.75 0.59 1.06 1.35 -42.31 -21.33 79.66 27.36 37.46 20.85 16.37 1.18 0.99 17.92% Oct
    ADP 2.52 2.72 2.89 3.14 3.52 7.94 6.25 8.65 12.10 28.81 26.51 23.65 3.16 3.13 0.96% Jun
    BRCM 2.79 2.92 2.72 2.84 3.26 4.66 -6.85 4.41 14.79 14.02 13.43 11.70 2.96 2.25 25.00% Dec
    CSCO 1.62 1.85 2.02 2.04 2.16 14.20 9.19 0.99 5.88 12.19 12.07 11.40 2.06 2.03 1.47% Jul
    IBM 13.38 15.25 16.28 17.90 19.83 13.98 6.75 9.95 10.78 11.63 10.58 9.55 18.07 17.47 3.35% Dec
    INTC 2.45 2.13 1.89 2.18 2.29 -13.06 -11.27 15.34 5.05 18.21 15.78 15.03 2.21 1.76 20.64% Dec
    MCHP 2.35 1.89 1.89 2.45 2.82 -19.57 0.00 29.63 15.10 24.88 19.20 16.68 2.88 2.68 8.16% Mar
    MSFT 2.69 2.73 2.65 2.72 3.20 1.49 -2.93 2.64 17.65 17.02 16.58 14.10 2.76 2.61 5.51% Jun
    MXIM 1.72 1.57 1.77 1.65 1.98 -8.72 12.74 -6.78 20.00 17.40 18.67 15.56 1.71 1.66 3.03% Jun
    NATI 0.94 0.78 0.64 0.89 1.12 -17.02 -17.95 39.06 25.84 51.53 37.06 29.45 0.85 0.79 6.74% Dec
    QCOM 3.20 3.71 4.51 5.32 5.56 15.94 21.56 17.96 4.51 16.64 14.10 13.49 5.27 5.07 3.76% Sep
    TXN 2.20 1.64 1.91 2.41 2.75 -25.45 16.46 26.18 14.11 24.90 19.73 17.29 2.50 2.12 15.77% Dec
    BBL 8.54 6.42 4.42 4.02 4.64 -24.82 -31.15 -9.05 15.42 15.73 17.29 14.98 5.37 2.70 66.42% Jun
    CAT 6.79 8.90 5.79 6.28 7.22 31.08 -34.94 8.46 14.97 18.48 17.04 14.82 6.51 5.87 10.19% Dec
    DE 6.63 7.63 9.09 8.37 6.90 15.08 19.13 -7.92 -17.56 9.47 10.29 12.48 8.83 7.94 10.63% Oct
    DD 3.95 3.33 3.88 4.02 4.64 -15.70 16.52 3.61 15.42 16.98 16.39 14.20 4.40 3.95 11.19% Dec
    GD 7.23 6.48 7.03 7.55 8.08 -10.37 8.49 7.40 7.02 17.24 16.05 15.00 7.50 7.10 5.30% Dec
    GE 1.37 1.52 1.64 1.68 1.83 10.95 7.89 2.44 8.93 15.90 15.52 14.25 1.78 1.65 7.74% Dec
    HON 4.04 4.48 4.97 5.54 6.17 10.89 10.94 11.47 11.37 19.17 17.19 15.44 5.60 5.50 1.81% Dec
    MMM 5.91 6.32 6.72 7.48 8.26 6.94 6.33 11.31 10.43 21.45 19.27 17.45 7.55 7.39 2.14% Dec
    MON 2.96 3.70 4.56 5.22 6.14 25.00 23.24 14.47 17.62 26.19 22.88 19.45 5.45 5.12 6.32% Aug
    UTX 5.48 5.35 6.21 6.86 7.52 -2.37 16.07 10.47 9.62 17.41 15.76 14.37 6.90 6.75 2.19% Dec

    Average         2.13 2.28 12.48 11.93 20.38 17.73 15.71      

    Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


    Company Q2-14 My Total Bonds Acc My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Div
        Yield CAGR Return Rate Rate RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / EPS

    Accenture PLC ACN 2.33% 8.50% 10.83% none 1.5 10.20 0.63 2.2 7.87 41.06
    Apple Inc. AAPL 1.90% 10.00% 11.90% AA+ 2.2 11.00 0.90 2.0 9.10 29.70
    Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT 1.81% 8.00% 9.81% A- 1.2 10.50 -0.69 2.3 8.69 37.74
    Automatic Data Processing ADP 2.31% 8.00% 10.31% none 1.8 10.50 -0.19 2.6 8.19 61.15
    Broadcom Corp. BRCM 1.26% 9.00% 10.26% A- 2.0 10.70 -0.44 2.3 9.44 16.90
    Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 3.09% 7.50% 10.59% AA- 1.7 10.20 0.39 2.4 7.11 37.25
    International Business Machines IBM 2.32% 8.50% 10.82% AA- 1.0 10.00 0.82 2.8 7.68 24.58
    Intel Corporation INTC 2.62% 5.50% 8.12% A+ 2.7 11.50 -3.38 2.7 8.88 41.28
    Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP 3.02% 3.00% 6.02% none 1.0 9.00 -2.98 2.3 5.98 57.96
    MicroSoft Corporation MSFT 2.48% 8.20% 10.68% AAA 1.8 10.20 0.48 2.6 7.72 41.18
    Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. MXIM 3.38% 7.40% 10.78% BBB+ 1.0 10.50 0.28 2.3 7.12 63.03
    National Instruments Corporation NATI 1.82% 7.00% 8.82% none 5.0 12.00 -3.18 2.5 10.18 67.42
    QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM 2.24% 9.20% 11.44% none 1.0 10.00 1.44 2.0 7.76 31.58
    Texas Instruments Inc. TXN 2.52% 8.00% 10.52% A+ 3.0 11.00 -0.48 2.6 8.48 49.79
    BHP Billiton plc BBL 3.39% 7.00% 10.39% BBB+ 5.0 12.50 -2.11 1.0 9.11 58.71
    Caterpillar Inc. CAT 2.65% 8.20% 10.85% A 4.0 11.20 -0.35 2.4 8.55 45.22
    Deere & Company DE 2.79% 8.30% 11.09% A 2.5 11.00 0.09 3.2 8.21 28.67
    E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. DD 2.73% 6.00% 8.73% A 4.5 10.00 -1.27 2.7 7.27 44.78
    General Dynamics Corp. GD 2.05% 8.20% 10.25% A 2.5 10.50 -0.25 2.1 8.45 32.85
    General Electric Company GE 3.38% 7.50% 10.88% AA+ 1.2 10.00 0.88 2.3 6.62 52.38
    Honeywell International Inc. HON 1.89% 9.80% 11.69% A 1.0 10.00 1.69 2.0 8.11 32.49
    3M Company MMM 2.37% 7.90% 10.27% AA- 1.0 10.00 0.27 2.6 7.63 45.72
    Monsanto Company MON 1.44% 10.00% 11.44% BBB+ 1.4 10.50 0.94 2.0 9.06 32.95
    United Technologies Corp. UTX 2.18% 9.00% 11.18% A 1.8 10.40 0.78 2.0 8.22 34.40

    Average   2.42% 7.90% 10.32%         2.33

    Disclosure: The author is long AAPL, CSCO, IBM, QCOM.

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Comments (3)
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  • prophet43m
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    In the first table, what does "target" refer to?
    20 Aug 2014, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » prophet43m asked "what does "target" refer to?"

     

    It is the change in the target price - as found in the stats at Yahoo Finance - since the beginning of the year.

     

    It is not good enough to know that a given stock is outperforming year to date - one should seek to know WHY a stock is having superior price appreciation. In the "year to date" intro spreadsheet, I seek to do that by showing (or tracking) the changes in the target, the current year EPS projection, and the LTM change in the dividend.

     

    Do stocks with rising targets outperform? Of course they do. The market runs on borrowed opinions. People have to be told - even institutional investors - which stock to buy. Markets react to changing targets - while at the same time, changes in the fundamentals (which also has a strong influence on price appreciation) is a separate force to which the market reacts - and also is the dominant influence on targets. So there is a fuzzy and unresolved "chicken or egg" issue going on here. There is some evidence that changes in targets are coincident indicators - and not leading indicators of price change.

     

    So changes in targets reflect that "something is going on". For the stocks I closely follow -- I know the stuff that is going on. It is nice to have a "stuff" indicator for the many stocks I track but do not closely follow.

     

    How strong is the target change indicator? Very strong. Here is the data from this sector for YTD 2014:

     

    The following companies had more than 10% increases in their price targets since the beginning of the year : AAPL , AMAT , BRCM , CSCO , INTC , MSFT , TXN , CAT , GD , HON , MMM , MON . Their mean price gain for the year is 16.9%. Their mean total return for the year is 18.46% - and 8 of the 12 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
    The following companies had increases in their price targets of less than 10%: ACN , ADP , IBM , MCHP , MXIM , NATI , QCOM , BBL , DE , DD , GE , UTX . Their mean price gain for the year is 1.35%. Their mean total return for the year is 2.7% - and 2 of the 12 beat the sector median yearly price gain.

     

    That's the kind of metric tracking that is supposed to make readers say "wow". I hope that some of you are doing that right now. This is the kind of stat that makes one wish that they could predict target changes - cause that must surely be one of the keys to successful investing.

     

    And one would be right in thinking that. But I - as a Seeking Alpha writer - have had real problems in telling that story. One of the keys is the "equity RRR". While I have provided a fair amount of RRR related content - the Seeking Alpha audience has failed to consume that content.

     

    . . . and now I have drifted far off target - which is ironic - given that this started as a question on "targets". (Sigh) Maybe it is a good thing that I am "on pause" from writing new content.
    21 Aug 2014, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • prophet43m
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the detailed reply. I'm going to try to follow the metric going forward.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:25 PM Reply Like
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