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Factoids
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I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do... More
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  • Are There Sources You Should Not Trust? 2 comments
    Aug 19, 2014 9:32 AM

    I am not going to post anything that borders on libel or slander here at Seeking Alpha. And that is not due to any guidance from Seeking Alpha. The editors are relatively bold here. They have allowed me to use headline like "MLP Brokerage Analysts are Worthless" and "MLPs and the Conspiracy of Silence".

    When I feel the need to post information that is highly negative - I keep it on the message boards. There are three such messages that may be of interest to REIT investors.

    Zacks on AVB or Avalonbay Communities Inc

    Should You Trust Zacks? - which has content on Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (NYSE:OHI)

    Zacks on HCN or Health Care REIT

    I wanted my regular readers to be aware of the findings in those postings.

    Disclosure: The author is long AVB, OHI.

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  • Andysud
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    Hi Factoids, I enjoy reading your posts. Quick question. Your comments regarding Zacks bullishness on OHI make you send bearish yet you are long OHI. Do you intend to hold OHI long term or are you looking to exit that position soon? Thanks in advance for your reply.
    19 Aug 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Factoids
    , contributor
    Comments (591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I see 5% dividend growth priced into OHI while at the same time I only see 3.93% normalized FFO growth projected for OHI in 2015. OHI beat the beginning of the year FFO projections in 2011, 2012 and 2013 - and is on its way to repeat that performance in 2014. So I am not filled with fear at only "3.93% growth" currently projected in 2014.

     

    But I am in "trust, but verify" mode. At some point in time, having long term contracts with 2% annual rent bumps is going to hurt forward dividend growth.

     

    I added OHI to my portfolio in December of 2010 at $21.08. The price last Friday was $37.70. And all along that ride, OHI has been paying a high dividend with solid growth. OHI has been very, very good to me.

     

    If OHI provides an anemic FAD growth projection in 2015 - I may be selling. If OHI continues to generate FAD growth by expanding its portfolio in debt securities, I will probably be selling.

     

    But for right now - I am holding. I will not be adding. I thought the Zack's article was overly bullish on OHI. After 25% unit price appreciation in 2014 - it should not be surprising that I find this to be a sub-optimal time to be bullish on OHI.
    20 Aug 2014, 01:47 AM Reply Like
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