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Packaging Stats 8-22-14

Packaging Portfolio 08-22-14

The Q2-14 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Div/EPS ratio has the 2015 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q2-13. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q2-09.


    12-31-12 08-22 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS14 EPS15 Price Pr+Div EPS14 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr

Aptar Group, Inc. (NYSE:ATR) 67.13 63.62 0.280 1.76 38 % 33 % -5.23 -3.98 -1.97 0.25 12.00 23.08
Ball Corporation (NYSE:BLL) 51.66 63.20 0.130 0.82 13 % 13 % 22.34 22.84 4.32 7.91 0.00 32.00
Bemis Company, Inc. (NYSE:BMS) 40.96 40.49 0.270 2.67 43 % 40 % -1.15 0.17 1.21 1.98 3.85 4.00
Greif, Inc. (NYSE:GEF) 52.40 50.30 0.420 3.34 60 % 50 % -4.01 -2.40 -7.87 0.00 0.00 2.11
International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) 49.03 47.12 0.350 2.97 39 % 33 % -3.90 -2.47 -3.52 0.12 16.67 260.00
Mobile Mini, Inc. (NASDAQ:MINI) 41.18 39.92 0.170 1.70 62 % 44 % -3.06 -2.23 -11.38 -2.55 -0.00 Infinity
Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) 63.28 66.46 0.400 2.41 34 % 30 % 5.03 6.92 -0.21 -0.55 0.00 33.33
Rock-Tenn Company (RKT) 105.01 94.85 0.350 1.48 20 % 17 % -9.68 -9.01 -11.69 -1.27 16.67 50.00
Sealed Air Corporation (NYSE:SEE) 34.05 36.19 0.130 1.44 31 % 26 % 6.28 7.05 7.64 1.79 0.00 1.67
Silgan Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SLGN) 48.02 50.07 0.150 1.20 19 % 18 % 4.27 4.89 0.63 5.08 7.14 11.58
Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE:SON) 41.72 40.30 0.320 3.18 52 % 48 % -3.40 -1.87 -0.80 1.55 3.23 3.70

Average         2.09 37 % 32 % 0.68 1.81 -2.15 1.30 4.03 42.15

The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] is up 7.85% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 8.81% year to date.
The KXI [Consumer Staples ETF] is up 4.15% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is up 4.15%.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.39% and the sector average yield [on Q2 Divs] at 1.28% - the spread is -111 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

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Dividend dates are:

ATR : 08-19-14 BBL: 09-15-14 BMS : 09-01-14 GEF: 06-30-14 IP: 09-14-14
MINI: 09-02-14 PKG : 07-14-14 RKT: 08-18-14 SEE : 09-18-14 SLGN: 09-16-14 SON: 09-09-14
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The relationship between CAGR projections and yields: While yields are also strongly risk, the influence of dividend growth projections can also be seen.
The following had CAGR projections equal to or over 10%: ATR BLL MINI PKG RKT . Their current average yield is 1.63%.
The following had CAGR projections under 10% but over 5%: GEF IP SEE SLGN . Their current average yield is 2.24%.
The following had CAGR projections equal to or under 5.0%: BMS SON . Their current average yield is 2.92%.

Price/Earnings Ratios 08-22
SJM started fiscal 2015 at the beginning of calendar Q1-14


  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 14 EPS Range
Co. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 2013 2014 2015 High Low Range

ATR 2.76 2.50 2.79 2.98 3.36 -9.42 11.60 6.81 12.75 22.80 21.35 18.93 3.10 3.00 3.36%
BLL 2.64 2.57 3.28 3.86 4.16 -2.65 27.63 17.68 7.77 19.27 16.37 15.19 3.83 3.65 4.66%
BMS 1.57 1.53 2.28 2.50 2.71 -2.55 49.02 9.65 8.40 17.76 16.20 14.94 2.57 2.40 6.80%
GEF 3.28 3.35 2.75 2.81 3.35 2.13 -17.91 2.18 19.22 18.29 17.90 15.01 2.90 2.65 8.90%
IP 3.22 1.72 3.16 3.56 4.18 -46.58 83.72 12.66 17.42 14.91 13.24 11.27 3.83 3.35 13.48%
MINI 0.77 0.93 1.08 1.09 1.55 20.78 16.13 0.93 42.20 36.96 36.62 25.75 1.20 1.08 11.01%
PKG 1.59 1.70 3.28 4.66 5.35 6.92 92.94 42.07 14.81 20.26 14.26 12.42 5.04 4.40 13.73%
RKT 4.67 3.54 7.30 7.10 8.11 -24.20 106.21 -2.74 14.23 12.99 13.36 11.70 7.62 6.89 10.28%
SEE 1.21 2.20 1.23 1.69 1.99 81.82 -44.09 37.40 17.75 29.42 21.41 18.19 1.71 1.53 10.65%
SLGN 2.76 2.18 2.77 3.18 3.42 -21.01 27.06 14.80 7.55 18.08 15.75 14.64 3.20 3.09 3.46%
SON 2.51 2.25 2.30 2.48 2.69 -10.36 2.22 7.83 8.47 17.52 16.25 14.98 2.53 2.47 2.42%

Average           32.23 13.57 15.51 20.75 18.43 15.73      

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Dividend History [based on Q4 Dividends]

The dividends are displayed rounded to a tenth of a the penny. For the last to columns, 'Av Grw Last 2Yrs' is for the average dividend growth over the last two years and 'Av Grw Last 6 Yrs' is average growth over six years. The average is derived by calculating the dividend growth for each year, and dividing by the number of years. This is not a compounded growth rate.


  Dividends/Share/Quarter Percentage Dividend Growth Av Grw Last
Co. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 2Yrs 6Yrs

ATR 13.0 13.0 15.0 18.0 22.0 22.0 25.0 0.00 15.38 20.00 22.22 0.00 13.64 6.82 11.87
BLL 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 42.86 30.00 36.43 18.81
BMS 21.0 22.0 22.5 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 4.76 2.27 2.22 4.35 4.17 4.00 4.08 3.63
GEF 28.0 38.0 38.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 35.71 0.00 10.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.71
IP 25.0 25.0 2.5 12.5 26.3 30.0 35.0 0.00 -90.00 400.00 110.40 14.07 16.67 15.37 72.41
MINI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 na na na na na na na na
PKG 30.0 30.0 15.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 40.0 0.00 -50.00 0.00 33.33 25.00 60.00 42.50 11.39
RKT 10.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 20.0 22.5 35.0 0.00 50.00 33.33 0.00 12.50 55.56 34.03 21.53
SEE 10.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 20.00 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.72
SLGN 8.0 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.0 12.0 14.0 6.25 11.76 10.53 4.76 9.09 16.67 12.88 9.84
SON 26.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 3.85 0.00 3.70 3.57 3.45 3.33 3.39 2.98

Average             3.53 -3.56 28.74 12.86 6.54 11.76    
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Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations


Company Q2-14 My Total Bonds Acc My Total Rtn Consensus Pr Impl Div
    Yield CAGR Return Rate Rate RRRs - RRR Ratings CAGR / EPS

Aptar Group, Inc. ATR 1.76% 11.00% 12.76% none 1.0 12.00 0.76 2.9 10.24 37.58
Ball Corporation BLL 0.82% 10.00% 10.82% BB+ 1.0 11.00 -0.18 2.6 10.18 13.47
Bemis Company, Inc. BMS 2.67% 5.00% 7.67% BBB 2.0 9.00 -1.33 3.3 6.33 43.20
Greif, Inc. GEF 3.34% 7.00% 10.34% BB- 2.3 11.00 -0.66 2.4 7.66 59.79
International Paper Company IP 2.97% 9.00% 11.97% BBB 3.0 10.50 1.47 1.9 7.53 39.33
Mobile Mini, Inc. MINI 1.70% 10.00% 11.70% BB- 2.8 11.00 0.70 2.1 9.30 62.39
Packaging Corporation of America PKG 2.41% 10.00% 12.41% BBB 3.0 10.50 1.91 2.5 8.09 34.33
Rock-Tenn Company RKT 1.48% 11.00% 12.48% BBB 2.8 11.50 0.98 2.1 10.02 19.72
Sealed Air Corporation SEE 1.44% 6.00% 7.44% none 3.0 9.50 -2.06 2.5 8.06 30.77
Silgan Holdings Inc. SLGN 1.20% 9.00% 10.20% BB- 1.0 10.50 -0.30 3.3 9.30 18.87
Sonoco Products Co. SON 3.18% 4.00% 7.18% BBB+ 1.0 8.00 -0.82 2.8 4.82 51.61

Average   2.09% 8.36% 10.45%         2.58
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