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82914 MLP Midstream Stats 3 comments
The consensus DCFs were last updated on 090114. The CAGR projections were updated 63014. Yields are based on the Q314 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q313  or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year. EPD, OILT and SXL have had price splits that are not reflected in this data.
Historical MLP MonthEnd Yields:
* The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX restarting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
*** The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield.
Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:
It is my hope that  by breaking the returns into segments, one can receive a better picture of what is going on. That may not be the case in 2014. For example, a high CAGR stock like BKEP can have a terrible year due to falling DCF projections (which is a reminder to invest in stocks with earning metrics "you can believe in"). Low CAGR stocks like EEP and NS can have good years due to rising DCF projections. It is definitely the year of the growth MLP  but this data somewhat hides the fact that it is a year full of individual stories.
High Distribution Increases: MLPs with increasing distributions outperform, but has that mattered in 2014?
The following companies had distribution increases of more than 8% when comparing Q313 to Q314 : ACMP , BKEP , ETP , GEL , MMP , NGLS , OILT , PAA , SEP , SXL , TLLP , WES , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 23.13%. Their mean total return for the year is 26.76%  and 7 of the 13 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had distribution increases between 5% and 8% when comparing Q313 to Q314 : AMID , DPM , EPD , HEP , KMP , OKS , RGP , WPZ . Their mean price gain for the year is 14.93%. Their mean total return for the year is 19.70%  and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had distribution increases between 2% and 5% when comparing Q313 to Q314 : BPL , CMLP , EPB , EEP , EXLP , MWE , TCP , TLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 10.40%. Their mean total return for the year is 15.39%  and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies did not have distribution increases  or had increases of less than 2%: APL , BWP , NS . Their mean price gain for the year is 4.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 8.72%  and 1 of the 3 beat the sector median yearly price gain.
High CAGRs and Year to Date Returns: MLPs with higher CAGRs should outperform, but have they in 2014?
The following companies had CAGRs equal to or more than of 8.5%: ACMP , BKEP , EQM , GEL , MMP , OILT , SXL , TLLP , WES , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 28.24%. Their mean total return for the year is 31.52%  and 6 of the 10 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGRs between 8.5% and 6.0%: AMID , APL , DPM , EPD , HEP , MWE , NGLS , OKS , PAA , SEP . Their mean price gain for the year is 17.98%. Their mean total return for the year is 22.30%  and 4 of the 10 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGRs between 6.0% and 3.5%: BPL , CMLP , ETP , RGP , WPZ . Their mean price gain for the year is 7.05%. Their mean total return for the year is 12.23%  and 1 of the 5 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGR estimates under 3.0%: BWP , EPB , EEP , EXLP , NS , TCP , TLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 9.33%. Their mean total return for the year is 14.17%  and 3 of the 7 beat the sector average yearly price gain.
Intrayear DCF Estimate Increases and Year to Date Returns: This is one metric where the retail investor will have some difficulty capturing an advantage. But awareness of the historical DCF accuracy helps. Changes in DCF projections explain unit price changes. You are better off than the average investor if you have some partial answers to the question of why MLP ABC out performed while MLP XYZ under performed. In order to have confidence in this explanation, the metric is tested year after year. That is what I have done in the stats below. Did MLPs with improving 2014 DCF estimates since the beginning of the year outperform this year?
The following companies had 2014 DCF estimate increases since the beginning of 2014: ACMP , EPB , EPD , ETP , EQM , HEP , MMP , NGLS , NS , OKS , OILT , SEP , TCP , TLP , WES , WPZ , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 23.42%. Their mean total return for the year is 27.62%  and 9 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%]. Their average historical DCF projection accuracy rating is 1.65.
The following companies had 2014 DCF estimate decreases since the beginning of the year: AMID , APL , BKEP , BPL , BWP , CMLP , DPM , EEP , GEL , KMP , MWE , PAA , RGP , SXL , TLLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 12.55%. Their mean total return for the year is 16.83%  and 6 of the 15 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their average accuracy rating is 2.91.
Disclosure: The author is long CMLP, DPM, EPD, GEL, KMP, MMP, MWE, WES.
Additional disclosure: This author is also long PAGP, TRGP and WMB  and they are the GPs of PAA, NGLS and WPZ.
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