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8-29-14 MLP Midstream Stats

MLP Midstream 08-29-14

The consensus DCFs were last updated on 09-01-14. The CAGR projections were updated 6-30-14. Yields are based on the Q3-14 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q3-13 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS, DCF and CAGR is the percentage change in the consensus 2014 projection that has happened since the beginning of the year. EPD, OILT and SXL have had price splits that are not reflected in this data.


Company   Current Distrib/ Q3 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2014 2015 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ACMP) 64.35 0.5950 3.70 72.12 69.19 13.73 16.89 -4.35 21.28 2.48 22.68 0.00
American Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:AMID) 29.81 0.4625 6.21 101.09 82.96 10.08 15.20 0.00 22.68 -11.59 6.94 40.00
Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:APL) 36.93 0.6300 6.82 90.00 86.30 5.36 10.76 -95.24 -10.84 -5.08 1.61 4.29
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:BKEP) 8.75 0.1325 6.06 84.13 67.95 2.82 7.49 -75.47 0.00 -38.83 10.42 2.35
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE:BPL) 79.00 1.1125 5.63 96.53 87.60 11.25 15.95 -7.26 10.41 -1.91 4.71 20.00
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE:BWP) 19.95 0.1000 2.01 23.12 22.86 -21.83 -20.65 -18.18 -28.47 -12.63 -81.22 0.00
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:CMLP) 23.36 0.4100 7.02 94.80 84.97 -6.15 -1.21 -58.93 -8.22 -6.49 2.50 16.67
DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:DPM) 56.58 0.7575 5.36 95.58 86.08 12.37 16.89 -30.00 7.03 -3.65 6.69 4.48
El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EPB) 41.56 0.6500 6.26 97.74 97.01 15.44 20.86 -17.48 0.23 3.10 3.17 8.70
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EEP) 36.32 0.5550 6.11 108.82 100.91 21.59 27.17 -16.07 14.19 -3.77 2.12 33.33
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) 81.26 0.7200 3.54 67.29 65.31 22.56 25.82 4.70 16.85 3.13 5.88 0.00
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) 57.45 0.9950 6.93 84.14 88.44 0.35 5.56 22.63 5.36 0.85 11.33 8.11
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:EQM) 97.49 0.5200 2.13 62.65 48.71 65.83 68.48 31.68 73.57 7.10 30.00 1.05
Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) 29.00 0.5425 7.48 83.14 86.11 -4.07 1.31 -14.29 5.69 0.00 3.83 0.00
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) 55.70 0.5650 4.06 80.71 69.33 5.95 9.18 -26.74 4.88 -4.76 10.78 4.65
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE:HEP) 36.29 0.5150 5.68 90.75 84.77 12.25 17.03 2.54 2.96 3.65 6.19 0.00
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMP) 96.38 1.3900 5.77 98.76 95.37 19.49 24.66 -1.47 7.85 -1.75 5.30 -31.91
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) 83.93 0.6400 3.05 72.11 66.84 32.65 35.69 19.06 39.82 15.64 20.19 2.27
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:MWE) 79.73 0.8800 4.41 91.67 79.46 20.57 24.56 -51.85 0.64 -11.52 4.76 -12.64
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NGLS) 74.40 0.7800 4.19 76.10 72.73 42.26 46.73 90.07 26.72 16.81 9.09 7.25
NuStar Energy L.P. (NYSE:NS) 66.09 1.0950 6.63 107.09 96.69 29.61 36.06 16.67 35.19 7.35 0.00 6.67
ONEOK Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OKS) 59.43 0.7600 5.12 90.48 84.92 12.88 17.21 1.49 5.73 0.60 5.56 0.00
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. (NYSE:OILT) 98.18 0.5200 2.12 58.76 53.47 58.18 60.69 -3.29 59.84 25.53 22.35 19.48
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) 59.93 0.6450 4.31 88.36 80.63 15.76 19.50 -8.24 5.19 -6.71 9.79 0.00
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE:RGP) 32.98 0.4900 5.94 96.08 87.11 25.59 31.19 -73.08 17.47 -1.45 5.38 25.00
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:SEP) 56.99 0.5563 3.90 82.11 83.97 25.67 29.35 -4.30 14.61 5.04 9.34 -1.54
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL) 98.96 0.7300 2.95 67.13 63.20 31.11 34.01 6.00 41.40 -5.64 21.67 1.12
TC PipeLines, LP (NYSE:TCP) 58.62 0.8400 5.73 85.71 83.37 21.04 26.24 16.31 9.67 5.95 3.70 -10.00
Tesoro Logistics LP (NYSE:TLLP) 70.28 0.6150 3.50 81.73 70.69 34.28 37.80 -0.42 24.29 -1.95 20.59 5.88
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (NYSE:TLP) 44.00 0.6650 6.05 71.12 78.24 3.53 8.22 -2.25 -7.85 6.86 2.31 -6.67
Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE:WES) 77.49 0.6500 3.36 81.76 73.24 25.61 28.77 -0.87 17.18 4.26 16.07 0.00
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE:WPZ) 53.01 0.9165 6.92 100.44 88.34 4.23 9.63 -30.37 5.21 2.24 6.26 -1.85
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:ENLK) 30.99 0.3650 4.71 89.57 80.22 12.28 16.25 36.96 17.05 3.82 10.61 2.35

Pipeline Average     4.96 83.99 77.79 17.65 21.92 -8.85 13.87 7.03 6.68  
Shipping
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) 19.70 0.4425 8.98 111.32 97.25 3.03 9.98 43.84 10.18 -9.14 0.00 0.00
Martin Midstream Partners LP (NASDAQ:MMLP) 39.28 0.7925 8.07 96.06 82.55 -8.22 -2.67 -13.13 -3.59 -5.17 1.60 6.06
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (NYSE:TGP) 43.40 0.6918 6.38 91.63 85.67 1.62 6.47 0.93 3.92 2.37 2.49 0.00

Shipping Average     7.81 99.67   -1.19 4.59 10.55 3.50    

MidStream Average   5.20 85.29 78.68 16.08 20.47 -7.23 13.00    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 16.40% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 16.35% and with dividends is 20.09%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 8.67% and with dividends is 9.63%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 1.04% and with dividend is 1.30%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.34% & the sector average yield [on Q3 distrib's] at 5.2% - the spread is 286 bps.
With the JNK yielding 5.60% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is -40 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.41% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is -22 bps.

Click to enlarge

Historical MLP Month-End Yields:

Jan 05: 5.97% Feb: 6.10% Mar: 6.07% April: 6.15% May: 6.16% June: 6.03%
July 05: 5.87% Aug: 6.10% Sept: 6.07% Oct : 6.45% Nov: 6.79% Dec: 6.92%
Jan 06: 6.56% Feb: 6.68% Mar: 6.56% April: 6.68% May: 6.76% June: 6.82%
July 06: 6.61% Aug: 6.65% Sept: 6.70% Oct : 6.58% Nov: 6.44% Dec: 6.28%
Jan 07: 6.05% Feb: 5.96% Mar: 5.77% April: 5.54% May: 5.54% June: 5.43%
July 07: 5.44% Aug: 6.05% Sept: 6.26% Oct : 6.20% Nov: 6.64% Dec: 6.70%
Jan 08: 6.79% Feb: 6.79% Mar: 7.43% April: 7.08% May: 7.44% June: 7.56%
July 08: 8.16% Aug: 8.45% Sept: 10.76% Oct : 11.73% Nov: 16.53% Dec: 19.50%
Jan 09: 14.76% Feb: 14.54% Mar: 13.90% April: 14.66% May: 9.80% June: 9.59%
July 09: 8.39% Aug: 8.61% Sept: 7.96% Oct : 7.84% Nov: 7.62% Dec: 7.13%
Jan 10: 6.64% Feb: 6.50% Mar: 6.34% April: 6.23% May: 6.71% June: 6.27%
July 10: 5.85% Aug: 6.14% Sept: 5.89% Oct : 6.14%* Nov: 6.00% Dec: 5.79%
Jan 11: 5.87% Feb: 5.62% Mar: 5.65% April: 5.59% May: 5.95% June: 5.90%
July 11: 6.21% Aug: 6.73% Sept: 7.10%** Oct : 6.51% Nov: 6.80% Dec: 6.45%
Jan 12: 6.45% Feb: 6.43% Mar: 6.43% April: 6.42% May: 7.26% June: 7.06%
July 12: 6.81% Aug: 6.87% Sept: 6.75% Oct : 6.79% Nov: 7.08% Dec: 7.31%
Jan 13: x.xx% Feb: x.xx% Mar: x.xx% April: x.xx% May: x.xx% June: 6.14%
July 13: 6.18% Aug: 6.51% Sept: 6.39% Oct : 6.34% Nov: 6.21% Dec: 5.77%***
Jan 14: 5.92% Feb: 5.84% Mar: 5.69% April: 5.64% May: 5.48% June: 5.24%
July 14: 5.50% Aug: 5.20% Sept: Oct : Nov: Dec:
Click to enlarge

* The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in the unit prices of the MLPs. And the same cause was evident in the increase in the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
** The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
*** The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield.

Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:

Jan 05: 178 Feb: 152 Mar: 156 April: 195 May: 216 June: 211
July 05: 159 Aug: 208 Sept: 174 Oct : 177 Nov: 230 Dec: 252
Jan 06: 206 Feb: 213 Mar: 171 April: 161 May: 164 June: 167
July 06: 161 Aug: 192 Sept: 206 Oct : 198 Nov: 198 Dec: 158
Jan 07: 123 Feb: 138 Mar: 122 April: 89 May: 65 June: 40
July 07: 71 Aug: 152 Sept: 167 Oct : 172 Nov: 269 Dec: 267
Jan 08: 319 Feb: 327 Mar: 401 April: 335 May: 338 June: 358
July 08: 420 Aug: 463 Sept: 694 Oct : 801 Nov: 1360 Dec: 1728
Jan 09: 1191 Feb: 1152 Mar: 1294 April: 1154 May: 634 June: 606
July 09: 491 Aug: 551 Sept: 488 Oct : 485 Nov: 443 Dec: 329
Jan 10: 305 Feb: 288 Mar: 251 April: 257 May: 341 June: 333
July 10: 294 Aug: 367 Sept: 337 Oct : 354 Nov: 321 Dec: 250
Jan 11: 250 Feb: 224 Mar: 219 April: 230 May: 289 June: 273
July 11: 341 Aug: 454 Sept: 518 Oct : 439 Nov: 472 Dec: 457
Jan 12: 457 Feb: 421 Mar: 421 April: 450 May: 570 June: 546
July 12: 534 Aug: 531 Sept: 511 Oct : 510 Nov: 546 Dec: 555
Jan 13: Feb: Mar: April: May: June: 366
July 13: 360 Aug: 373 Sept: 378 Oct : 379 Nov: 347 Dec: 274
Jan 14: 327 Feb: 319 Mar: 304 April: 299 May: 300 June: 272
July 14: 299 Aug: 286 Sept: Oct : Nov: Dec:
Click to enlarge

It is my hope that - by breaking the returns into segments, one can receive a better picture of what is going on. That may not be the case in 2014. For example, a high CAGR stock like BKEP can have a terrible year due to falling DCF projections (which is a reminder to invest in stocks with earning metrics "you can believe in"). Low CAGR stocks like EEP and NS can have good years due to rising DCF projections. It is definitely the year of the growth MLP -- but this data somewhat hides the fact that it is a year full of individual stories.

High Distribution Increases: MLPs with increasing distributions out-perform, but has that mattered in 2014?
The following companies had distribution increases of more than 8% when comparing Q3-13 to Q3-14 : ACMP , BKEP , ETP , GEL , MMP , NGLS , OILT , PAA , SEP , SXL , TLLP , WES , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 23.13%. Their mean total return for the year is 26.76% - and 7 of the 13 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had distribution increases between 5% and 8% when comparing Q3-13 to Q3-14 : AMID , DPM , EPD , HEP , KMP , OKS , RGP , WPZ . Their mean price gain for the year is 14.93%. Their mean total return for the year is 19.70% - and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had distribution increases between 2% and 5% when comparing Q3-13 to Q3-14 : BPL , CMLP , EPB , EEP , EXLP , MWE , TCP , TLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 10.40%. Their mean total return for the year is 15.39% - and 3 of the 8 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies did not have distribution increases - or had increases of less than 2%: APL , BWP , NS . Their mean price gain for the year is 4.38%. Their mean total return for the year is 8.72% - and 1 of the 3 beat the sector median yearly price gain.


High CAGRs and Year to Date Returns: MLPs with higher CAGRs should out-perform, but have they in 2014?
The following companies had CAGRs equal to or more than of 8.5%: ACMP , BKEP , EQM , GEL , MMP , OILT , SXL , TLLP , WES , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 28.24%. Their mean total return for the year is 31.52% - and 6 of the 10 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGRs between 8.5% and 6.0%: AMID , APL , DPM , EPD , HEP , MWE , NGLS , OKS , PAA , SEP . Their mean price gain for the year is 17.98%. Their mean total return for the year is 22.30% - and 4 of the 10 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGRs between 6.0% and 3.5%: BPL , CMLP , ETP , RGP , WPZ . Their mean price gain for the year is 7.05%. Their mean total return for the year is 12.23% - and 1 of the 5 beat the sector average yearly price gain [16.08%].
The following companies had CAGR estimates under 3.0%: BWP , EPB , EEP , EXLP , NS , TCP , TLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 9.33%. Their mean total return for the year is 14.17% - and 3 of the 7 beat the sector average yearly price gain.

Intra-year DCF Estimate Increases and Year to Date Returns: This is one metric where the retail investor will have some difficulty capturing an advantage. But awareness of the historical DCF accuracy helps. Changes in DCF projections explain unit price changes. You are better off than the average investor if you have some partial answers to the question of why MLP ABC out performed while MLP XYZ under performed. In order to have confidence in this explanation, the metric is tested year after year. That is what I have done in the stats below. Did MLPs with improving 2014 DCF estimates since the beginning of the year out-perform this year?

The following companies had 2014 DCF estimate increases since the beginning of 2014: ACMP , EPB , EPD , ETP , EQM , HEP , MMP , NGLS , NS , OKS , OILT , SEP , TCP , TLP , WES , WPZ , ENLK . Their mean price gain for the year is 23.42%. Their mean total return for the year is 27.62% - and 9 of the 17 beat the sector median yearly price gain [16.08%]. Their average historical DCF projection accuracy rating is 1.65.
The following companies had 2014 DCF estimate decreases since the beginning of the year: AMID , APL , BKEP , BPL , BWP , CMLP , DPM , EEP , GEL , KMP , MWE , PAA , RGP , SXL , TLLP . Their mean price gain for the year is 12.55%. Their mean total return for the year is 16.83% - and 6 of the 15 beat the sector median yearly price gain. Their average accuracy rating is 2.91.

Disclosure: The author is long CMLP, DPM, EPD, GEL, KMP, MMP, MWE, WES.

Additional disclosure: This author is also long PAGP, TRGP and WMB -- and they are the GPs of PAA, NGLS and WPZ.