For calendar Q1-16 (its fiscal Q2) QCOM projects revenues of $4.9 to $5.7 billion compared to calendar Q1-15 revenues of $6.9 billion. QCOM projects non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.90 - $1.00/share compared to Q1-15 EPS of $1.40.
The current Yahoo consensus analyst projections:
| Earnings Est | Current Qtr. Dec 15 | Next Qtr. Mar 16 | Current Year Sep 16 | Next Year Sep 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Estimate | 0.90 | 1.02 | 4.19 | 4.88 |
| No. of Analysts | 30.00 | 29.00 | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| Low Estimate | 0.85 | 0.82 | 3.73 | 4.25 |
| High Estimate | 1.03 | 1.25 | 4.72 | 5.64 |
| Year Ago EPS | 1.34 | 1.40 | 4.66 | 4.19 |
| Revenue Est | Current Qtr. Dec 15 | Next Qtr. Mar 16 | Current Year Sep 16 | Next Year Sep 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Estimate | 5.69B | 5.69B | 23.28B | 24.34B |
| No. of Analysts | 30 | 29 | 34 | 27 |
| Low Estimate | 5.12B | 4.77B | 20.26B | 22.20B |
| High Estimate | 6.00B | 6.18B | 25.86B | 26.78B |
| Year Ago Sales | 7.10B | 6.89B | 25.28B | 23.28B |
| Sales Growth (year/est) | -19.80% | -17.50% | -7.90% | 4.60% |
While the projections were less than expected, the calendar Q4 or fiscal Q1-16 actual numbers were better than expected. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.97/share compared to the projected $0.90/share. Revenues were $5.7 billion compared to the consensus $5.69 billion.
It is my expectation that the market will (correctly) think that the bad news in the projections trumps the good news in the actuals. We do not live in a "what have you done for me lately" market - but a "what will you do for me next" market.
There is some potentially good news -- with QCOM already priced at a 4% yield - the market was already expecting less than good news from QCOM. The size of the badness of the news in this earnings release could be lower than the size of the badness already priced in to the stock. But that assessment is speculation on my part - and I do not know this sector well enough to be speculating.
Technology & Industrial Dividend Growth Companies 01-27-16
The Q1-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. This is another sector where the fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. ACN pays dividends only twice per year - and that quirk is accounted for in the yield calculation and the dividend/EPS ratio. The change in the price, price + dividend, 2016 EPS projection and target is the change since market's close of 12-31-14. On 7-01 DD spun off The Chemours Company (CC). DD stockholders received one share of common stock of Chemours for every five shares of DuPont they held. CC began trading at $21 - which means it was worth $4.20 per DD share on that date - a size worthy of doing historical adjustments. I have adjusted the dividend data because Yahoo Finance did - but did not adjust beginning price targets or other pricing data. CC ended Q3-15 at $6.47. Thus holders of one share of DD had $1.30 in CC. The Q4 dividend for CC will be $0.03/share. I am not expecting to do any more adjustments for the spin-off because the value of the transaction looks relatively trivial. ADI, AMAT, INTC, MCHP, NATI, BA, DHR, ETN, MMM, PH, RTN and UTX have yet to announce what is expect to be increased dividends.
| 12-31-15 | Current | Dividend | Q1-16 | Div/EPS | Percent Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The_Company_Name_&_Ticker | Price | Price | /Quarter | Yield | Ratio | Price | Pr+Div | 15 EPS | Target | Div 1Yr | Div 3Yr | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Accenture PLC | (ACN) | 104.50 | 101.96 | 1.100 | 2.16 | 46% | -2.43 | -2.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 7.84 | 11.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Analog Devices, Inc. | (ADI) | 55.32 | 51.28 | 0.400 | 3.12 | 54% | -7.30 | -7.30 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 5.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Amphenol Corporation | (APH) | 52.23 | 48.39 | 0.140 | 1.16 | 23% | -7.35 | -7.08 | -0.39 | -0.94 | 12.00 | 55.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Apple Inc. | (AAPL) | 105.26 | 93.42 | 0.520 | 2.23 | 23% | -11.25 | -11.25 | -1.54 | -3.56 | 10.64 | 12.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Applied Materials, Inc. | (AMAT) | 18.67 | 17.09 | 0.100 | 2.34 | 34% | -8.46 | -8.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Automatic Data Processing | (ADP) | 84.72 | 80.48 | 0.530 | 2.63 | 73% | -5.00 | -5.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | 8.16 | 7.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broadcom Corp. | (BRCM) | 57.82 | 54.37 | 0.140 | 1.03 | 20% | -5.97 | -5.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cisco Systems, Inc. | (CSCO) | 27.16 | 23.43 | 0.210 | 3.59 | 38% | -13.73 | -13.73 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 10.53 | 16.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| International Business Machines | (IBM) | 137.62 | 120.96 | 1.300 | 4.30 | 35% | -12.11 | -12.11 | -0.60 | -0.74 | 18.18 | 17.65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Intel Corporation | (INTC) | 34.45 | 29.81 | 0.240 | 3.22 | 43% | -13.47 | -13.47 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 2.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Microchip Technology Inc. | (MCHP) | 46.54 | 43.33 | 0.357 | 3.30 | 54% | -6.90 | -6.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MicroSoft Corporation | (MSFT) | 55.48 | 51.22 | 0.360 | 2.81 | 59% | -7.68 | -7.68 | 0.36 | 1.11 | 16.13 | 18.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. | (MXIM) | 38.00 | 32.05 | 0.300 | 3.74 | 79% | -15.66 | -15.66 | 0.00 | -0.75 | 7.14 | 8.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| National Instruments Corporation | (NATI) | 28.69 | 28.19 | 0.190 | 2.70 | 99% | -1.74 | -1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oracle Corporation | (ORCL) | 36.53 | 34.91 | 0.150 | 1.72 | 22% | -4.43 | -4.43 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 25.00 | 8.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QUALCOMM Incorporated | (QCOM) | 49.99 | 47.53 | 0.480 | 4.04 | 41% | -4.92 | -4.92 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 14.29 | 30.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TE Connectivity Ltd. | (TEL) | 64.61 | 56.22 | 0.330 | 2.35 | 37% | -12.99 | -12.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.79 | 19.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Texas Instruments Inc. | (TXN) | 54.81 | 50.67 | 0.380 | 3.00 | 56% | -7.55 | -7.55 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 11.76 | 11.90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Seagate Technology | (STX) | 36.66 | 26.97 | 0.630 | 9.34 | 55% | -26.43 | -26.43 | -0.33 | -1.91 | 16.67 | 21.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Technology Average | 3.09 | 45% | -9.23 | -9.22 | -0.13 | -0.28 | 9.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12-31-15 | Current | Dividend | Q1-16 | Div/EPS | Percent Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Company | Price | Price | /Quarter | Yield | Ratio | Price | Pr+Div | 15 EPS | Target | Div 1Yr | Div 3Yr | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Boeing Company | (BA) | 144.59 | 116.58 | 0.910 | 3.12 | 44% | -19.37 | -19.37 | -0.11 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 29.21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Caterpillar Inc. | (CAT) | 67.96 | 58.32 | 0.770 | 5.28 | 67% | -14.18 | -14.18 | -1.39 | -0.13 | 10.00 | 16.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Deere & Company | (DE) | 76.27 | 73.63 | 0.600 | 3.26 | 44% | -3.46 | -3.46 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 5.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. | (DD) | 66.60 | 51.46 | 0.380 | 2.95 | 55% | -22.73 | -22.73 | -1.24 | 0.35 | -14.80 | -2.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Danaher Corp. | (DHR) | 92.88 | 84.25 | 0.135 | 0.64 | 13% | -9.29 | -9.29 | -0.20 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 146.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Emerson Electric Co. | (EMR) | 47.83 | 43.38 | 0.475 | 4.38 | 59% | -9.30 | -9.30 | -0.33 | -0.28 | 1.06 | 5.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eaton Corporation | (ETN) | 52.04 | 49.44 | 0.550 | 4.45 | 52% | -5.00 | -5.00 | -0.47 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 10.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| General Dynamics Corp. | (GD) | 137.36 | 129.00 | 0.690 | 2.14 | 31% | -6.09 | -6.09 | -0.10 | -1.09 | 11.29 | 11.76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| General Electric Company | (GE) | 31.15 | 28.00 | 0.230 | 3.29 | 71% | -10.11 | -10.11 | 0.00 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 7.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Honeywell International Inc. | (HON) | 103.57 | 96.96 | 0.595 | 2.45 | 39% | -6.38 | -6.38 | 0.15 | -0.22 | 14.98 | 15.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3M Company | (MMM) | 150.64 | 145.55 | 1.025 | 2.82 | 54% | -3.38 | -3.38 | -0.12 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 20.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monsanto Company | (MON) | 98.52 | 87.61 | 0.540 | 2.47 | 38% | -11.07 | -11.07 | -2.47 | -0.78 | 10.20 | 14.67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Northrop Grumman Corp. | (NOC) | 188.81 | 178.19 | 0.800 | 1.80 | 32% | -5.62 | -5.62 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 14.29 | 15.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Parker-Hannifin Corp. | (PH) | 96.98 | 91.69 | 0.630 | 2.75 | 35% | -5.45 | -5.45 | -0.49 | -0.58 | 0.00 | 13.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pentair PLC | (PNR) | 49.53 | 45.12 | 0.335 | 2.97 | 35% | -8.90 | -8.90 | 0.74 | -1.76 | 4.69 | 15.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PPG Industries Inc | (PPG) | 98.82 | 92.80 | 0.360 | 1.55 | 25% | -6.09 | -6.09 | -0.31 | 0.44 | 7.46 | 7.34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raytheon Company | (RTN) | 124.53 | 118.17 | 0.670 | 2.27 | 40% | -5.11 | -5.11 | -0.14 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 7.27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United Technologies Corp. | (UTX) | 96.07 | 85.81 | 0.640 | 2.98 | 41% | -10.68 | -10.68 | -0.30 | -1.24 | 0.00 | 6.54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Average | 2.86 | 43% | -9.01 | -9.01 | -0.36 | -0.05 | 3.29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Combo Average | 2.98 | 44% | -9.12 | -9.12 | -0.24 | -0.17 | 6.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] has changed -7.68% year to date. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The SPY [S&P 500 EFT] - with unreinvested dividends - has changed -7.68% year to date. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| With the 10 Treasury at 1.98% and the sector average yield on Q1 dividends at 2.98% - the spread is 100 basis points. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| * The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date. Update for the morning of 1-29-16
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Update for the morning of 2-02-16
| Earnings Est | Current Qtr. Mar 16 | Next Qtr. Jun 16 | Current Year Sep 16 | Next Year Sep 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Estimate | 0.97 | 1.01 | 4.09 | 4.77 |
| No. of Analysts | 28.00 | 28.00 | 33.00 | 29.00 |
| Low Estimate | 0.82 | 0.89 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| High Estimate | 1.10 | 1.21 | 4.48 | 5.41 |