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Magellan Midstream Partners Reports Q2-16

Aug. 02, 2016 10:09 AM ETMMP1 Comment
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MMP has yet to file the 10-Q - which is my source for the debt numbers.

Earnings were in line with guidance - but 'guidance' lacked optimism. The distribution coverage ratio is falling - which suggests slower forward distribution growth. Guidance already projected that.

Magellan Midstream Partners metrics: 57% Refined Products; 34% Crude; 9% Marine Storage. 85% fee based.

Q2-2016 Q1-2016 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013 Q2-2013 Q1-2013
Revenues 518,897 519,816 573,048 577,232 487,543 522,090 667,070 521,601 496,446 618,606 577,438 443,835 443,912 432,421
Costs 307,709 321,466 343,502 289,670 304,322 311,869 387,331 297,409 320,183 343,983 355,081 291,586 260,191 291,967
EBITDA 292,520 270,132 315,529 292,017 281,613 284,934 303,559 231,438 247,989 297,894 289,791 192,051 217,342 166,264
DCF dollars 221,011 205,337 256,897 230,004 222,829 233,124 248,055 183,386 195,846 253,182 236,570 141,057 168,187 123,906
Units 227,983 227,849 227,781 227,427 227,631 227,525 227,426 227,068 227,288 227,141 227,068 226,679 226,679 226,679
DCF/unit $0.9694 $0.9012 $1.1278 $1.0113 $0.9789 $1.0246 $1.0907 $0.8076 $0.8617 $1.1146 $1.0418 $0.6223 $0.7420 $0.5466
Upcoming Distrib. $0.8200 $0.8025 $0.7850 $0.7625 $0.7400 $0.7175 $0.695 $0.6675 $0.6400 $0.6125 $0.5850 $0.5575 $0.5325 $0.5075
Coverage 1.1822x 1.1230x 1.437x 1.326x 1.323x 1.428x 1.569x 1.210x 1.346x 1.820x 1.781x 1.116x 1.393x 1.077x
2016 Guidance: EBITDA of $1.166 billion and DCF of $910 million
Credit Suisse DCF/unit x x $1.13 $1.01 $0.98 $1.02 $1.09 $0.81 $0.86 $1.12
Stifel DCF/unit x $0.901 $1.128 $1.01 $0.980 $1.025 $1.091 $0.808 $0.862 $1.115
Wells Fargo DCF/unit x $0.90 $1.13 $1.01 $0.98 $1.02 $1.09 $0.81 $0.86 $1.12
LTM EBITDA 1,170.198 1,159.291 1,172.003 1,106.619 1,101,544 1,067,920 1,080.880 1,067,112 1,027,725 997,078 865.488
Long Term Debt x 3,800,000 3,400,000 3,407,114 3,326,936 3,183,750 2,982,895 3,303,707 2,910,496 2,435,316 2,435,316 2,486,715 2,390,021 2,391,718
Debt/EBITDA x 3.28x 2.90x 3.08x 3.08x 2.98x 2.76x 3.10x 2.83x 2.44x 2.81x
For MMP, even the credit facility expense is included in the long term debt numbers
Cash x 210.000 28,700 9,007 29,030 52,813 17,063 14,853 731 196,630 25,235 14,228 119,491 221,003
Net Debt x 3,590,000 3,371,300 3,398,107 3,297,906 3,130,937 2,965,832 3,288,854 2,909,765 2,238,686 2,410,081
Net Debt/EBITDA x 3.06x 2.85x 3.07x 2.99x 2.93x 2.74x 3.08x 2.83x 2.24x 2.78x
Interest Expense 40.345 34.151 35,421 34,993 37,265 34,100 34,855 39,779 39,756 36,416 35,168 31,852 31,720 31,723
Interest Coverage 7.25x 8.31x 8.91x 8.35x 7.56x 8.36x 8.71x 5.82x 6.24x 8.18x 8.24x 6.03x 6.85x 5.24x
In March of 2015 MMP issued $250 million of 3.20% notes due 2025 and $250 million of 4.20% notes due 2045
In March of 2014 MMP issued $250 million 5.15% notes due 2043
In October of 2013 MMP issued $300 million of 5.15% notes due 2043

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long MMP.

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