Seeking Alpha

John Lounsbury's  Instablog

John Lounsbury
Send Message
John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
My company:
John B Lounsbury CFP
My blog:
Global Economic Intersection
Back To John Lounsbury's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (155)
Track new comments
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Before we get started, I've been informed that some participants on a different site cannot see the annotations I make. I was under the impression that 'anybody' could see them and that the viewer 'did not' have to be a paid subscriber to StochCharts.com. Can anybody let me know if they are a non-subscriber to StochCharts, yet 'can' see the annotations? Thanks.

     

    Here's a sample to use:

     

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...
    30 Nov 2010, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I can see it.
    And I'm not a subscriber or registered user.
    30 Nov 2010, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the quick reply lower. That's the fantastic news I was hoping for. Sadly, all along I've been under the impression that my followers on another site could see them, when in fact only participants who are subscribers can see them. Nobody has complained about it until recently. So I'd subconsciously drawn the wrong conclusion.

     

    At least we don't have that problem here. Such good news. Thanks again.
    30 Nov 2010, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Do you actually see the blue lettered annotation that says "can you see this annotation?"?
    30 Nov 2010, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Yes.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Noice! Tanks. When was the last time you got a thumbs up for a single word? Well you got one this time because it makes me reel, reel happy.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Interesting... I am not a subscriber... but I can see the annotation.
    However, on your most recent link at the bottom of this comment stream... ... I can't see the annotation...
    1 Dec 2010, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18029) | Send Message
     
    I can see all that you have posted, NP.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Dec 2010, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    That's the info I was looking for user. Thanks. You've confirmed that the problem is that in order to see the annotations on 'intraday' charts , a viewer has to be subscribed with StockCharts. But anybody can see annotations on charts that are daily or larger. Thanks for helping clear that up.
    1 Dec 2010, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Confirmed, Rocks. I'm not a registered user of StockCharts, but I can see your charts, and did read the highlighted blue annotation. All square from here.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Awesome. Thanks buddy.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AR - - -

     

    I can see the chart and your notation. The problem may be a system problem for individual users. Let me give you some examples:

     

    1. With my new system I can not use the Instablog input screen using Windows 7 and Internet Explorer 8. I can access the input window with Windows 7 and Firefox.

     

    2. Another site that I post to sometimes can't recognize my log in using Windows 7 and Internet Explorer 8. Staying with Windows 7 Firefox works.

     

    3. My older systems which are Windows XP and Internet Explorer 7 work fine in both cases.

     

    Some users may be having problems of this sort. If one browser doesn't work, try another.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AR - - -

     

    I am not a registered user of StockCharts.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the tips JL. The viewers on SA have the luxury of seeing my charts in dynamic mode. As the daily action unfolds, the viewer can see my charts as I see them. I call it "luxury" not out of any self serving sense, but from the sense that other people on other sites can not only "not" see my annotations, but they also do not get the dynamic updates. For many, especially my friends on SA, I find this to be very important at certain times. Normally the live update issue isn't all that important... but at times it could be fun for viewers. One time Mark Bern confirmed to me that he could see a change take place in a chart at the same time I did, as it pertained to live action on the HO. I think this is great for anybody who would like to see things unfold in real time as I do. Now I just have to try to solve the problem for friends on sites other than SA. Thanks for your help John.
    30 Nov 2010, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    I can see it just fine. Now that we got that out of the way...what are we looking at exactly?
    30 Nov 2010, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jeff. I've seen you around, but not on these instas. So I'm not sure if you know what's going on here.

     

    Sorry, but that chart was one I had to select in order to try to solve a problem. It's just the $DAX index with basically no information or annotations on the chart. It was just a test. But I do put up some very informative charts. This is a series of instas that has been ongoing for over a year now, courtesy of John Lounsbury. If you're interested, you might click on this link which will take you the the insta previous to this one, which concluded only today.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Once there, you can see some of the charts I've posted recently. The main intention here is to share info with my friends and try to give alerts to a market correction that seems imminent. The focus on this series of instas is keeping an eye on the components of the Hindenberg Omen and anticipating it's signal before it occurs. We have been very successful in pinpointing every single 'near miss' so far. We were also successful in calling the first official signal back in August. ZH reported it later in the day and then the media went nuts with it. We also spotted all subsequent signals and were able to dispel reports of signals when they in fact 'had not' officially occurred. So stay tuned if you're interested because it's definitely making serious rumblings right now.
    30 Nov 2010, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    OK AR...you got me here...I too can see the charts and annotations just fine.
    30 Nov 2010, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    sweet. so just to be clear. the signal you are waiting for isn't a bear signal, it's a total market collapse signal?

     

    my personal market timing indicator triggered 11.16 and I've been short since. it's been volatile, but I'm holding it out.
    1 Dec 2010, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Jeff, the Hingenberg Omen's record is very good at detecting polarity within the markets where the horses are pulling in opposite directions. What happens after the HO signaled isn't always a total collapse although that 'has been' the case on occasion. Here's a link to an article by Dr. Robert McHugh who keeps the best records I know of about the HO's signals and what happened on each occasion:

     

    www.safehaven.com/arti...

     

    But basically yes, it is a warning of potential total market mayhem. It does not have any ability to predict the degree of the pullback, only that one is likely to occur. We stick strictly to the rules out of respect to Jim Meikka, the originator of the Omen. But I also report all near misses here, just in case. Because what it takes to register a 'near miss' is, as far as I'm concerned, is good enough. For example, it issued a near miss which we discussed here on the morning of the flash crash. However, it never did issue an official signal until August, half way through the August pullback. As a result, it more or less got laughed off as a farce. It is no farce, I assure you. It's simply mathematics, pure logic.

     

    Funny you should mention your personal market timing indicator. I have methods as well and they began to issue serious warning in the latter half of Oct. One of them historically issues a sell signal about a week early and it put up the red flag during the week of Oct. 18-22. No indicator is flawless and this one seldom issues a false signal. But damned if it didn't do just that in August. So I'm never 100% confident and the orcs are very powerful. With all the shenanigans going on with overnight gaps becoming the expected norm, they have every opportunity to mess with this market on a grand scale. It's criminal. It's exasperating. It's illegal. It's immoral beyond description... but it is what it is. The one thing they can't do is change the nature of mathematics, so I'm going to stick with the math and just trust the indicators. Good luck and thanks for stopping by. Stay tuned.
    1 Dec 2010, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    thx ar.

     

    I decided I had been on this site long enough it was time I interacted more with the community. This was the first place I landed from some random surfing on the site.

     

    Speaking of whipsaws, my signal got short in late August, then reversed, then I got short back on May 4th, just in time for the flash crash. I'll never forget the date because it's my wife's birthday.

     

    Look forward to the dialogue....
    1 Dec 2010, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    In a morbid kind of way, I'm happy your indicator gave you a false signal in August. Since it mirrored what mine did, as far as I'm concerned your system works. lol That might sound illogical but it isn't... because in my opinion, they both work. The same thing happened to many other TA guys... it just happens from time to time. The whole premise behind TA is to put the odds in our favor to the greatest extent possible. It doesn't always work, as you obviously know. Congrats on doing some good work there.
    1 Dec 2010, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Would the next person who 'is not a subscriber to StockCharts' reads this, please click on this link. I'm hoping that when the chart opens you will be able to see a few annotations. One of them is a red lettered text box that says "can you read this red lettered annotation?".

     

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

     

    If you can not see it, then the question has been answered (about why some people can see all my annotations and some can not). If you 'can' read it, then the mystery remains unsolved. Thanks!
    1 Dec 2010, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • smarttogether
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Not a subscriber and can't see it.
    1 Dec 2010, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks I am not a subscriber, and can't see any annotations. I am on a new mac using the most current version of Safari.
    1 Dec 2010, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18029) | Send Message
     
    Can't see the annotations. Windows 7, 64 bit, FF 3.6.12.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Opened Explorer 8.0.7600.16385, doesn't have the compatibility updates, no can see annotations.
    1 Dec 2010, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Can't see it. Windows Vista, FF 3.6.12
    1 Dec 2010, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Sorry. Can't see the annotations on this one. On the stockcharts screen it gives "annotate in flash" or "annotate in java." Which do you use?
    1 Dec 2010, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    That's the info I was looking for guys. Thanks. You've confirmed that the problem is that in order to see the annotations on 'intraday' charts, a viewer has to be subscribed with StockCharts. But anybody can see annotations on charts that are daily or larger even if he is not a subscriber. Thanks for helping clear that up.

     

    lower, those links you see "annotate in flash" or "annotate in java" are methods of adding the annotations (for me or any other subscriber to use). I can use either, but I prefer flash.

     

    Man... it appears there's going to be yet another massive gap upward tomorrow. When is this manipulation going to end? It's putting horrible stress onto those who are long as well as those who are short. 10 years ago this type of thing was unheard of. Nowadays it's getting to be every single night. It's very unhealthy, for the market as well for market participants.
    1 Dec 2010, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    ar,

     

    there is a way around this for non subscribers. add it to your public list and then you can share that link with anybody and they can see it
    1 Dec 2010, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Do you mean my public list on StockCharts? If so, I haven't published one and don't plan on doing so. It's not going to be a big issue Jeff, because I've never yet published an intraday chart on SA and don't really have any reason to. It's just that I was baffled when I tried it for the first time yesterday. It's all good. But thanks again for the great idea.
    1 Dec 2010, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    well, you could dedicate a specific watchlist to a "public list" just for easy sharing features like this. it's not like you don't want others to see the charts and who knows what other quality contributors you could attract to these discussions by including a link on your top chart.

     

    like this.

     

    stockcharts.com/def/se...
    1 Dec 2010, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The issue I'd have with that is that 90% of people who participate on SA don't have a clue what Elliott Wave theory is. And if I'm not mistaken at least 80% of them also think Elliott Wave theory is complete bunk and 50% think technical analysis is completely useless. I'm having a hard enough time here as it is, being more of a technician than a believer in government reports and what Cramer has to say. So as far as any type of analysis is concerned, I pretty much limit it to discussion on the HO.

     

    But occasionally I present charts on different articles within the SA world that might pertain to currencies or ratios or interesting and important relationships (like between the yield on treasuries and the S&P for example). I don't think it would be appreciated, to tell the truth, if I 'did' attract E-wavers here. One guy who's very welcome here is Eric McCurdy because he presents excellent analysis, but it isn't based on Elliott Wave theory (although he uses it and understands it perfectly well as part of his analysis). That type of guy really fits in nicely here.

     

    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    1 Dec 2010, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    New to this insta - not new to JL - my fav author.
    I'd like to follow - and looked over your fall 09 with all that drama - glad that's not an issue now - pretty inspiring to see your insight and sharp contributions from all...looking forward to learning

     

    fyi/disclosure
    I suscribe to EW and have read the book. I don't count waves but understand the premise. Also followed Charles Nenner for a bit.
    From 100% long equities, went to cash/money mkt mid Dec 07 - hopped in and out quickly pre Sept 08 and in & out Oct 08. 3/9/09 went all in - and got out May 09 - thought 35% was enough...so I've missed a bunch but still net ahead v Dec 07 - and was burned badly enough with the tech bubble - to prefer preservation v thinking i know more than i really do.
    I mention my timing - not so much to pat myself on the back - except the last 1.5 years has been frustrating - but I didn't learn about EW until last fall. Fascinating stuff and looking forward to following.
    4 Dec 2010, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    I love it when I call for a correction, and the market goes up for two days on a suckers rally...the best part is when my critics say I called it wrong, just before the inevitable collapse...

     

    foolish mortals!
    3 Dec 2010, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Glad to see you here Brandon.

     

    Yup, I know what you mean. I'd mentioned the other day that if the HO were based on the NAS rather than on $NYA, it would have triggered on Tuesday just before the close.

     

    Immediately after the market closed, 10 minutes later, the futures embarked on a little jaunt that ensured the following morning would present the largest gap higher we've seen in 925 years. Incredibly, during the following Wednesday and Thursday when the markets ramped higher on Bennybucks, the internals continued to decline, or some cases remain basically flat.

     

    But if this ramp job continues, the components of my best indicators might be in the process of proving that they've given me second straight head fake... a head fake that occurs in these indicators very seldom. The last one occurred in August. IOW, against all logic (for example, in light of the reports released this morning), the market internals might be improving here. I just don't know what to think anymore. Perhaps the Fed has created so much money that they have been able to purchase the rights to "logic" and now control it as they wish.

     

    I always thought mathematics worked, but apparently not.
    3 Dec 2010, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    so true about purchasing "logic"...it's so sad that the markets aren't free anymore and we have to always consider gov't maniupulation in our trading plan.
    3 Dec 2010, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    be careful brandon, my system flipped back to bullish and my scans are backing that up. a lot of very bullish charts out there. while I believe a crash is coming...I think we'll see new yearly highs first (to sucker the masses in)
    3 Dec 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Jeff, the masses are not entering the market. There have been 30 straight weeks of retail money fleeing from equity funds. John Lounsbury recently posted a link to an article detailing that as a result of the withdrawals, the fund managers had less cash left than at any other time in the past 27 years... at least. IOW, they're about as "all in" as they can get. I believe it will be decades before we see Joe Public interested the equity markets. I think it's literally destroyed in terms of an honest investment vehicle. That being said, your indicators could indeed be turning higher and the equity markets could indeed blast off higher once again. But it definitely will not be the retail buyer who's pumping the markets 1% higher in after hours trading every damned night.

     

    I find it very saddening that 99% of investors are completely oblivious to the dangers. My dear sister and her professor husband to two prime examples. 99% of investors have never even heard of Seeking Alpha. They don't even realize that their money, which is in the "safe hands" of their fund managers, is not in safe hands... not even remotely.
    3 Dec 2010, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    your system cant fight city hall buddy....

     

    seeking alpha didnt publish this one...it's on satwavespro since 7 am...here it is on the instablog for the rest

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    3 Dec 2010, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    I've read one rumor today that the HO has triggered. In case you've heard that, as of this moment it is not true and it's not likely to happen unless the market sells off fairly hard later today. At the moment, 2 rules are being violated but that could resolve if the market were to sell off.

     

    But what is noteworthy is that the required number of new 52 week lows and new 52 week highs have both met the minimum requirement (as a percentage of shares traded today on the $NYSE). In fact, the number of new 52 week lows has exploded higher today, up 65% from Friday's number and is currently at the highest level since mid November. The problem lies with the fact that at the present moment, the number of new 52 week highs is also higher and is more than double the number of new lows. The market is clearly getting very seriously polarized here, simply indicating that it is nowhere as robust as the manipulators would have us believe.

     

    .
    13 Dec 2010, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Geez..... the number of new 52 week lows is kind of going nuts here.... now up by 81% over Friday's number. Not what we'd expect to see in a healthy bull market... so I guess we're not in one.
    13 Dec 2010, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    you have a link to this?
    13 Dec 2010, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • adAstra
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    So what's the verdict on HO? The market did manage to selloff late in the day.
    13 Dec 2010, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The Omen did not signal for only one reason. The number of new 52 week highs was more than double the number of new 52 week lows. That's a rule that is absolutely cast in stone... it is a 'must' that the new highs 'not be more than double' the new lows.

     

    Throughout most of the day there was a second rule that was also negating the chances of a signal, but as I'd mentioned, should there be a sell-off, that condition would possibly correct itself. That is indeed what happened.... the market sold off in the final hour and that second condition concerning the McClellan Oscillator did turn lower as required.

     

    But here's the most important aspect we must take from today's action:

     

    The number of new 52 week lows exploded higher today, closing higher than Friday's number by 77% (according to the official source of HO data which is the WSJ). Just as a side note, I need to once again thank Eric McCurdy for challenging me on that issue back in August, causing me to research the actual rule a little better. In any event, here's a link to another technical analyst who's on the HO's case today and he's pointing out pretty much the exact same concerns I am. But it might be a nice change of pace for you to hear all this from somebody else. Michael Eckert is an excellent technician but he does make one error here in that he states that the number of new 52 week highs was 93. The official source records the number at 87 and that's what we have to use. But Michael knows his stuff, very, very well. Here's what he has to say about the Hindenberg Omen today:

     

    ewtrendsandcharts.blog.../

     

    Stay tuned because things are definitely heating up. The odds are growing daily that a correction of some form is very likely not far away. If the HO is wrong... so what, at least we're on our toes. Here's a comment I posted on a different site today and it was a fairly big hit, so I'll post it below for your consideration. It was in response to one article which declared that in August the HO signal turned out to be an effing joke:

     

    ==============

     

    Most common opinion of the Hindenberg Omen and any other form of technical analysis?

     

    "Good morning ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. I'd like to welcome you aboard HO Airlines flight 666. We've just passed the half way point on your trip to Honolulu, where the temperature is a beautiful 88 degrees under sunny skies. We're currently cruising at 37,000 feet anticipating arrival in 3hrs. 12 minutes. Our fuel gauges are now reading 'empty' but other than that we're expecting smooth sailing through the second half of your flight. So sit back and relax because as far as I'm concerned fuel gauges are a f##king joke."

     

    .
    13 Dec 2010, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    I found it. The lows are all a result of panic in muni bonds...see botom of list...

     

    online.wsj.com/mdc/pub...
    13 Dec 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    This is what we use for the HO data. It 'must' be data from the WSJ:

     

    online.wsj.com/mdc/pub...
    13 Dec 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The HO is very near to issuing a signal. When it goes off, we may or may not have to wait until the end of the day to know whether or not the McClellan Oscillator is negative on the day. More likely though, it will be quite obvious before the close which direction it's pointing, in which case you will be amongst the most updated people in the world. lol

     

    So stay tuned because at the moment, it's very close.... perhaps only minutes away.
    14 Dec 2010, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    As of this moment, the Hindenberg Omen has gone off. But before it can be declared official we need to know with certainty that the number of new 52 week highs will not exceed double the number of new 52 week lows. We also need to know with certainty that the McClellan Oscillator ends up negative on the day. If the market sells off from here those answers would most likely become obvious fairly quickly. If the market rises from here, it will depend on how far.... so stay tuned. But as of this moment, the HO sirens have gone off.
    14 Dec 2010, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    www.1motormart.com/sou...

     

    Warning siren.
    14 Dec 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • barakg
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Albertarocks, what's the value of following this if all the lows (except 5) are muni funds? you had a misfire before, so fine tuning this signal seems appropriate. there are other unrelated signals of top formation right now but this one seems a bit like fitting a square to a triangular hole.
    14 Dec 2010, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    30 years ago when the HO flashed it's signal, often banks were the issues making new lows. And back then, it was they who were the most heavily invested in the bond funds. So if you believe that a crashing bond market is of no importance to the stock markets, then don't even bother looking at the HO.
    14 Dec 2010, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    a lot of times these indicators can have misfires, but what makes them worth following is the one time it doesn't misfire is the time you don't want to be in the market.
    14 Dec 2010, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    At this time, the HO signal is pretty much in the books. All I want to see is the chart of the McClellan oscillator after 5:00 to confirm that it is indeed pointed lower on the day. Odds are very high that it is... in which case the HO has issued it's first signal since the August grouping. I will confirm it one way or the other here after 5:00 just for the record.
    14 Dec 2010, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    It was an official HO signal. For those few who are still interested, here's a link to Dr. Robert McHugh's excellent summary detailing what has happened with past occurrences:

     

    www.gold-eagle.com/edi...
    14 Dec 2010, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Rocks: Thanks, pal! Heading back to the friggin' freezing states tomorrow. Stop/losses set.
    14 Dec 2010, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • George.H
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Nice.
    14 Dec 2010, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hey Maya... something big in my life. My gorgeous daughter has a most wonderful boyfriend. He has the most charming accent and is one of the warmest human beings I've ever met. And for some reason he treats me like I'm his father. I'm actually blown away by his warm attitude towards me since that degree of respect for elders seems very much missing from our own culture. He's from Nicaragua. My daughter informs me that the country's history is very interesting and that her friend's grandfather was somehow instrumental in it. Apparently the grandfather played a very prominent role as a member of 'a society' which had a lot of influence with the poor and the wealthy alike. I'll learn more about that when the three of us can find more time together.

     

    He assures me that his family wants to meet me and that they would be more than happy to "take me in" as a man of status (being 'el padre de la hermosa mujer'). lol So perhaps I'll be living in Nicaragua in 2012, who knows? I'm kind of excited about this whole new development since I just love this kid and I already speak Spanish un pocito. I just thought you'd find that interesting since this young man is possibly a descendant of the Mayans or the Aztecs. In truth though I'm almost certain he's of Spanish decent.

     

    An added bonus is that I was concerned about the safety issues in South America and upon researching that topic, was very pleasantly surprised to discover that Nicaragua is considered hands down the second safest country within which to live in all of the western hemi... second only to Canada. I could live with that.
    14 Dec 2010, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    AR: I asked Twisted Tanya--who besides owning a couple of restaurants, also owns copanconnections.com a travel agency, "If I were to take week of pure vacation in Central America, which country would you have me visit?"

     

    Ans: Nicaragua

     

    Maybe I'll be coming over to see you! Better than this cold weather!
    16 Dec 2010, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting. Thanks so much for that little tidbit Maya. It's a very comforting thing to know. I'll tell my daughter... she'll be very pleased with your report as well. Thanks again.
    16 Dec 2010, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    HO has arrived

     

    www.belessdumb.com/snd...

     

    Man your battle stations. Slaughter possible.

     

    melis.bbaron.sk/wav2/s...

     

    AR, I just could not help myself. LOL
    14 Dec 2010, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    LOL

     

    www.prankcallsunlimite...
    14 Dec 2010, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks!
    Does the H.O. need another signal to confirm?
    15 Dec 2010, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Sorry lower... I hadn't seen your question until now. Yes, we need a second signal now. The comment below explains what's up.
    15 Dec 2010, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Some of you might know all the rules about the Hindenburg Omen but there's one that we should be discussing now. When the HO goes off, the rules state that we need to see another one within 36 days. Once the second one has occurred, any that follow are a moot point... they're only useful in that they are giving further confirmation of a polarized and fractured market.

     

    Since the August cluster is far enough back in time now (there's also a rule about that), we're starting over. Yesterday's signal is referred to as a "Hindenburg signal". The next one will be considered as an "official Hindenburg signal"... the 'confirming' signal. For those who might be impatient for the second signal... as of this moment we nearly have it already today. But it won't be confirmed until we see whether or not the NYSE closes higher or lower and more specifically whether or not the McClellan oscillator for that index is higher or lower on the day. If the $NYSE finishes in the red and there are more stocks lower than higher, we'll almost assuredly have the second signal today. If the market finishes higher, but the number of declining stocks is greater than the number of rising stocks, we'll still get the signal. Early today, the number of rising stocks far outnumbered the stocks which were lower. That has reversed in the past hour and for a short while, the decliners outnumbered the gainers. And now they are about even. So hang in there and let's see how this transpires. At the moment it's all about the A/D line. We might have to wait until the final hour before we have a pretty darned good clue about how it's going to end up.... or we might have to wait for the close. I'll let you know.
    15 Dec 2010, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Sell volume in the Russell and the Qs in the past hour has suddenly gone absolutely massive relative to the previous hour and relative to the worst hour of yesterday. This can't be good. Also the number of decliners has surged and is much higher than the number of gainers... at least at the moment. This would mean a second HO signal in as many days will occur if the market doesn't reverse smartly. The volume sure suggests that reversal is not likely to happen. Hard to know at the moment but this looks rather bad.
    15 Dec 2010, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the update AR
    bullish sentiment alone enough to get me short - HO seems to be a confirmation that can't be ignored.

     

    looking forward to your update
    If I read correctly, 1 of 13 confirmed signals happened in August that didn't produce a drop. Seems a pretty remote probability that 2 confirming signals in a row wouldn't produce a drop,
    15 Dec 2010, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    YW DigDeep. No, you've misunderstood the stats a bit. In the past, when the HO has issued a confirmed signal, the markets have dropped "at least 5%", 12 out of 13 times. In other words, if the market doesn't drop by at least 5% after the HO has issued a signal, and if that is the measurement for a 'failure', then the HO issues a failed signal 1 out of every 13 times. One of the problems is that those who love to laugh at the HO (especially since they think the August series of signals was a failure) seem to expect that the signal somehow guarantees a crash of at least 20%. In fact the odds of a crash of 10-15% are 'only' 10/26 or 38%.

     

    It's becoming apparent that the second and 'confirming' signal is all but assured to happen today. But we'd better wait for the close because the number of new 52 week highs is too close to being more than double the new lows. That would disqualify everything else. They currently sit at 152 highs and 88 lows. If the market continues heading south, this won't be an issue.
    15 Dec 2010, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    Yes
    August was a failed signal - I'm saying 2 failed signals in a row is remote...if we get it tonight - probabilities increase for all levels of drops
    Very interested to see if today confirms.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    wow...a few down days and this thread becomes extremely active!
    15 Dec 2010, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jeff - - -

     

    There is nothing like carrion to attract vultures. As a market vulture, I can bear testimony to that.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    LMAO... I'm not sure how that should be taken John. That was very funny.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    www.nps.gov/miss/natur...

     

    There's plenty of room on the carcass Jeff.

     

    We are just waiting to see if it's dead yet.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18029) | Send Message
     
    As carrion, I can too! =>:-O

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2010, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    There's no need to wait for the close of trading. The HO has issued it's second signal in as many days.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Your reputation is REALLY on the line now AR... ;-)
    15 Dec 2010, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, and you wouldn't believe the flak I'm taking for it. lol
    15 Dec 2010, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    It's on!! Call in the Marines!!

     

    1stbn4thmarines.com/so...
    15 Dec 2010, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Stand down soldier. There are Canadians in them thar bushes.
    15 Dec 2010, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    I suggest they duck!! Better yet get your arse over here in the fox hole and man a weapon!!
    15 Dec 2010, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • kileyp
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    my 2cents... August was not a failure merely 'put-off' with QE2. It can be argued that the last 2 days of market activity is due to the unwind of that QE2 'risk-on' trade... And hopefully a return to the fundamentals of finance... To the Hinderburg...glug glug glug
    15 Dec 2010, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    Hey AR...doing my part to make you famous...don't worry..this one's on me.

     

    satwavespro.com/2010/1.../
    15 Dec 2010, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    I'm very pleased that you took the time to watch Chris's video and I'm doubly pleased that you recognized the message right away. And I'm triply please that you've gone to great lengths to make that free video available to your followers. That's just awesome.

     

    I'm totally convinced that 99.9% of people have absolutely no clue where money comes from and that in due course it has to disappear back into that imaginary void that it was birthed from in the first place. In fact money isn't even money, it's a debt. It is in fact a note (a Federal Reserve note) which must eventually be repaid 'with interest'. The 'interest' portion is not only the interest on the loan, but the invisible 'cost' caused by the devaluation of that same money (inflation caused by the same entity who created that money in the first place). If the Fed were at least owned by Americans there would be some hope. But it's a foreign owned entity, owned by the offshore banking cabal. And in 1913 they received authority to create the American money for use in the United States of America and rent it back to the people of the USA.

     

    Another word for it is "usury" or "rape". Those two words mean the same thing as far as I'm concerned. We're coming up on one full century of the rape of America and the result is about to become all too obvious in the next few very short years. It has already begun but strangely, the American media is reporting none of this:

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    16 Dec 2010, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Satwaves
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    Word is getting out...

     

    blogs.stockcharts.com/...
    16 Dec 2010, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    i can't imagine it holding as much weight if the masses figure this indicator out.
    16 Dec 2010, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    could help trigger a (the) sell-off if enough people hear about it
    16 Dec 2010, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Jeff, I can't believe you said that. lol

     

    If the market is being stretched in both directions at the same time and is becoming really fractured and polarized, how is it going to make one iota of difference if the 'masses figure this indicator out'? It's not any different than the gas gauge in a car warning that the car is about to run out of gas. If the occupants of the car figure out what that gas gauge is telling them, the gas tank doesn't suddenly fill up by magic. That's not much different either, than saying, "hell, now everybody knows what the MACD indicator is, so now it'll never work again." The HO has signaled, warning that the stock market is on very shaky ground. The fact that the public might all of a sudden be a little more aware of that fact isn't going to fix the market.

     

    Don't worry, it's meaningful.
    16 Dec 2010, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The fact is DigDeep that probably less than 1% of investors will ever hear about the HO signals. And of the investors who are fortunate enough to at least have heard the warning, 90% of them will completely, 100% ignore it or poopoo it as nonsense. If they only knew and understood exactly what it is that this indicator is watching for, and how rarely it finds the danger to be so severe that it issues its signal, they just might give it a little more serious thought.

     

    The event of triggering the HO is going to have absolutely no effect on the markets one way or the other. The market is going to do what it's going to do... and the HO is simply warning that the most likely direction for the markets in the coming weeks is to the downside. It doesn't know 'how far'. It can't predict 'when'. All we can do is consider everything else and try to come to our own conclusions about "how much" downside there might be. There's no magic to this. It's just like an instrument in an airplane or a pressure gauge at a refinery or something. It's just a very real warning that there is very real danger. But it absolutely, 100% guaranteed will not "trigger" anything. The market is going to do what it was going to do anyway.
    16 Dec 2010, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    There will be no Hindenberg Omen signal today. lol

     

    350 new 52 week highs and 1 new 52 week low.

     

    I think the Fed bought the rights to that indicator. lol
    3 Jan 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AR - - -

     

    I will not start a new HO Insta until it appears that there may be some new action. I have a feeling that could happen at any time, but why start a new Insta until its time has come (like good wine).

     

    By the way, I heard somewhere that the originator of the HO says he now believes that the HO is only active for 30 days after the last confirmation. Have you seen anything like that?

     

    Happy New Year.
    3 Jan 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough John. The market action lately has been surprisingly broad so we'll just have to wait to see how flimsy it really is. It really is impressive yet disturbing how the Fed is pumping this market up on such tiny volume and with so little expenditure night after night after night, initiating these rallies. But I have to admit that with advancers outpacing decliners today by about 3:1 they're certainly spreading the sugar around as opposed to focusing on just the heavy hitters (such as AAPL which makes up 21% of the NAS). Yet the European debt issues are bubbling away worse than ever just below the surface. I suspect it's only a matter of days before they become headline news once again. Perhaps the intention is to paint the illusion a little further by making sure that the 'January effect' myth is kept in tact.

     

    No, I hadn't heard that Jim Meikka had changed the rules... or his belief that it should only be active for 30 days. But after the signals were issued in August, we saw an incredible run-up which should by itself have rendered the August signals as 'dead' since we really were looking at an entirely different market once that rally got going. It's rather amazing how, just since the Dec. signals, the breadth has improved as much as it has. I don't know if it's real or not to be very honest. If the European debt crisis somehow got solved over the New Year's break then I'd have to say the dollar is on its way to falling very hard and the S&P is probably headed toward 12,000 or so. But those European issues are very, very serious and they haven't gone anywhere.

     

    The other day a fellow Albertan asked me (on a different site) if I agreed with him that Alberta's economy was on the verge of blasting off and matching China's growth yet again (in 2006 the economy here was absolutely incredible and did in fact keep pace with China's rate of growth). My answer was that I firmly believe that the future of our economy is directly related to what happens in Europe. IOW, if the deflationary scenario does in fact evolve due to the unwinding of decades of credit (beginning in Europe), then the USD will surge and oil will fall hard and so will our economy. So I watch Europe with a great deal of interest.

     

    I wish you the very best for the New Year John. I hope it's the best year for you ever, in every way. Tell your wife Dan says "hi".

     

    .
    3 Jan 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    WE INTERRUPT YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING TO BRING YOU THIS SPECIAL NEWS BULLETIN!

     

    The HO is on the verge of issuing a warning today. The number of new 52 week lows has been rising sharply over the last couple of days while the market continues to melt-up and the euphoria reaches levels that are enough to make one barf. This type of euphoria is typical of every top and is just about as dangerous as the HO signal itself. Thankfully the HO is non-organic and is immune to sensations of euphoria... it simply reports mathematical reality.

     

    The reality is that as the market continues melts up here, from pressures unknown, the number of new 52 week highs has been climbing right along with it. But not nearly as high as one would expect at these lofty levels. However, the number of new 52 week lows has silently been rising as well, having risen to 39 yesterday. It has exploded higher this morning, even as the market continues to rise. It currently sits at 88 and rising.

     

    What we'd need to see in order for the HO to trip, is almost any sell off from the current levels. The number of new highs is slightly more than double the number of new lows (highs = 205 at the moment) . That situation would be corrected almost instantly with any sell off, as the number of new lows would suddenly surge enough to reach the required range. Then we'd need end of day confirmation that the MacLellan oscillator is negative on the day. If the market sells off even slightly into the red, that is a likely occurrence as well.

     

    Of course, there's nothing dictating that any sort of sell-off occurs today, in which case we start fresh tomorrow. But the message is still the same... the number of new 52 week lows is exploding higher as the market just melts up as if it were healthy. HO signal or not... that's what's happening. As far as I'm concerned, the message is quite clear... the market is shattering right beneath our feet and everybody's oblivious to it. So stay tuned. I assure you, if nothing else, this is at least a very dangerous market condition.

     

    WE NOW RETURN YOU TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING.

     

    p.s.: Thanks for your sense of humor in accepting this new reporting style. I promise not to do it again. lol
    13 Jan 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    that's really funny. I'm holding a little qid now, just a gut feeling.
    13 Jan 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    What I'm seeing here at the moment is amazing OG. The number of new 52 week highs is climbing slowly but the number of new 52 week lows is keeping pace. More and more stocks are actually hitting new 52 week lows as the market continues to melt up. I mean.... that's not a good thing. I'm short the NAS as well (puts on QQQQ), but admittedly it might have been safer to have waited for a trend line break. If we do see a correction happen today or tomorrow, expect it to be very, very sharp with an explosion in volume. It might not even happen until Opex is finished next Friday, but the message from the HO is the same. It's nice to see you here.
    13 Jan 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Rocks: Here's a post that I just wrote over in QC. Seems somewhat in line with your post. I don't know whether not the HO is triggering during this afternoon's sell off, but here's what I just learned:

     

    Some observations:

     

    Interesting moment approaching for SilverCorp (SVM). There is a six month long resistance level at $10.57. Yet, there also is a 21/50 day moving average death cross occuring today. Today's money flow was out huge earlier today, but currently that's softening. MACD "buy" has dipped to the most oversold since last August. Yet, the sell/buy line continues to widen in sell's favor.

     

    RSI has only a little further down until is also will reach the most oversold since August. Stochastic IS the lowest in six months; way over sold. MACD Histogram is screaming SELL! the loudest it's indicated, again, since last August. REI is also in the lands of way "oversoldum."

     

    I've been attempting to figure out when to add back to my SVM postition.

     

    Stock is trading at $10.52 right now, down 73 cents on the day, breeching (or, overshooting?) support of $10.57.

     

    Is the death cross a sign of an even greater dip, or is this a time of major support and it's now time to buy with most all the indicators at six month over sold lows? This stock is now down some 30% from its 52 week high established December 3rd.

     

    Northgate Minerals (NXG) is in very much the same as (SVM), indicator-wise, with a very strong support at $2.75. Right now, At $2.84.

     

    I'm going to put in a 90 day program trade for a small amount of (NXG) at $2.75.

     

    As for SVM I am going to wait; the entire market feels real toppy right now. If I was a squirrel, I'd be hiding some nuts right now.

     

    ####

     

    Euro is spiking, as some TA suggested it would a few days ago. (FXE) is up about four bucks since that guess was made.

     

    Are we seeing a hint of something new? Stronger euro, yet weaker dollar while the minerals also slide?

     

    I reviewed a bunch of mining stocks in the last hour; (SLW), (HL), (GLD), (GFI) and many more mining stocks are showing very similar technical trends. Almost all of them, excluding (PAL) are very near or right on top of, or already have formed a death cross.

     

    13 Jan 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Yeah Maya, some of my technical buddies have been perking up all day about metals hitting the skids right along with the dollar. Something seems to be up because that makes no sense at all. Essentially the markets did a deflationary move today as did metals, but the action in the dollar leaned heavily to the inflationary case. Possibly just an aberration related to Opex? This won't happen often but if there's some underlying reason I'd suspect it's fairly serious. Don't know what it is yet but we might hear something that explains it in the coming hours... or maybe just an aberration.

     

    Rates on the 20 yr. were down very sharply today, meaning the bond was in high demand. That's a deflationary signal. If the bond market rules, which I believe it does, the signal from that is that the dollar crash is not warranted and that the action in equities and metals perhaps was. I dunno. lol
    13 Jan 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya - - -

     

    The Euro rally today had a lot to do with Euro bonds rallying: econintersect.com/b2ev... Successful bond auctions for Portugal and Spain relieved some pressure.
    13 Jan 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    John
    from your link; ....big declines in borrowing costs for financially troubled Portugal and Spain...

     

    I read where they paid China 0.1% less than recent rates. 6.7% I think.

     

    I'm not seeing where/what's positive other than additional CB & China support -- but at high service levels. I'd guess it to be a counter trend bounce - The new support doesn't change the fundamentals.
    13 Jan 2011, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John and Rocks: That could be why there was an unusual oddity in the down dollar and mining stocks today.

     

    The euro rally due to bonds came right in time with a double bottom for (FXE) I noticed a few days ago. I was tempted to get in, but I didn't play it.

     

    What I'm more intrigued about is all the death crosses I see being, or having already formed in many mining stocks I track (using six month charts). See (ABX), (SLW), (AEM), (KGC), (NEM), (BVN) for instance.

     

    Even all the Cramer hype about Nova Gold hasn't prevented (NG) from enduring a death cross.

     

    Doc copper also is double topping, short term. I need to see a few more sessions before I attempt a directional conclusion.

     

    These PM pullbacks could be due to sector rotation, or, it could be a warning sign of an upcoming broader pullback.

     

    John, Remember when we both saw (SPX) RSI back in July...how it showed a possible bottom, and Doug Kass a few days later called the year low? Well, (SPX) RSI has been floating along the overbought line of 80 since December 20th. If you take a look at the year chart of (SPX), we see that a couple weeks before last April's hefty correction, RSI was at a two year high. On December 22nd it was as high (overbought) as any time since last April, possibly giving us another heads up a few weeks in advance.

     

    I got out of, or severely reduced my silver and gold postions weeks back, and I'm trying to figure from a technical standpoint of when to get back in. But when I see all these death crosses and the (SPX) RSI being so high, for such a duration, it makes me squeamish about getting long right now.
    13 Jan 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya. I sympathize with your reluctance to pull the trigger. This market has been the toughest thing to get a handle on that I've ever encountered. It's extremely dangerous and yet just continues to climb. We know why that's happening but really, the reason doesn't matter does it? It is what it is. I've had to just pull in my horns and revert back to the most basic of TA and that's a series of moving averages. Here's a very simple chart of gold with 3 MAs on it.

     

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

     

    If you study these MAs it becomes somewhat clear that when each of them turns, it stays in that direction for a certain amount of time. Right now the direction of the green 100 day is clearly up. Notice that when the orange 50 day turns lower, it hasn't stayed in that direction for long before turning back up. And once it turns lower, you'll want to know "when" is it going to turn back up? You can get a clue about that from the white 26 day.

     

    At the moment, the white 26 day is suggesting that the orange 50 day is probably in the process of rolling downward. If it does roll downward, and you're convinced that over the long haul gold will head higher, then I'd advise that you just stand aside and await a better entry point to go long. Theoretically, that signal would occur at some point when the orange 50 day is about to turn higher (after a trip south... probably not far south). And "when" would it turn higher? Keep your eye on the white 26 day for clues about that.

     

    Please don't be offended if you know how to do this already. It's about the most basic TA there is... and these days it seems to be about the only system that works. It does work better for an index or a commodity than it does for individual stocks. And MA systems do not work well in sideways or range-bound markets, but very well in trending markets. Gold is a trending market for sure. I hope this helps.

     

    All the best my friend,
    ~d
    13 Jan 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rocks. Your chart confirms exactly what I'm seeing. Long term up with gold and silver. But right now is not the time to fire up a new position. I like your mid Feb. potential buy target.

     

    But then comes along the end of POMO and QE2 late March into early April. That's when things could get real interesting. Especially if Illinois' 65% tax increase doesn't pass. We may see mass layoffs in all levels of the public sector coming later this year, driving unemployment back up.

     

    Additionally, we may see some pension entitlement cutting, as NJ gov., Doug Christy is trying to implement.

     

    We have something like 86 or 87% bullishness right now. This makes me want to don the tin foil hat, break out the oigi board and get contrarion, or at least examine contrarion thinking, especially from a TA viewpoint.

     

    Of course, I may be wrong, and we'll continue to happy feet it up the worrisome wall.
    13 Jan 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Do you mean Chris Christi? I saw what Chris Christi had to say.... scary stuff to say the least. I don't pretend what's going to happen either Maya, but the potential for a violent reaction has never been higher... ever. So I could be totally wrong about gold, but these days I've discovered that only the basic TA is working. And moving averages are a direct reflection of price action, as opposed to other momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI, which are more complex 'derivatives' of price action. So for now, I'm really going solidly with the MA method.
    13 Jan 2011, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dig Deep - - -

     

    I don't have the data for Spain, but last week the Portugal 10-year yield hit 7.39% (www.livecharts.co.uk/s...) and the auction today - oops, yesterday - was subscribed at 6.719. That's a decline of 67 bp and well below what many feared yesterday's auction would produce.

     

    Yes, rates further back toward the beginning of the year were about where this auction ended up, but more recently the rates had spiked.
    14 Jan 2011, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The HO did not signal thanks to the final half hour infusion of Benny bucks. Otherwise we would have had the first signal since Dec. 15th. This is a relatively safe bet because down volume also exceeded up volume by a wide margin today in spite of the stick save. That would have most likely caused $NYMO to end up negative on the day (which is one of the requirements). Doesn't matter... the data the HO provided (or was monitoring) still tells the same story... the market is once again getting very polarized with many horses pulling in the wrong direction.

     

    The number of new 52 week lows surpassed the minimum level required by a wide margin, but the rules state that they must be at least half the number of new highs. The new highs registered 242, so the HO dictates that the market would have had to print 121 new lows. New lows were closing the gap until that little stick save happened. They ended up at 111. (WSJ has a habit of adjusting these numbers after hours for some reason so we'll have to wait a couple of hours to see where they end up.) So no official signal today. I reiterate though... the message is still very clear.
    13 Jan 2011, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    Something you just said AR had me thinking about how the POMO could keep the HO from signaling for some time now, but when it does cross I think the downward move is going to be fast and furious because it will signal that Big Ben can't hold this house of cards up any longer.
    13 Jan 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jeff... Happy New Year.

     

    I'm going to shamelessly cut and paste a comment I made yesterday about that very topic. I wrote it on another site where the language is quite a bit more colorful, so I've adjusted this one accordingly...

     

    ===============

     

    George, imagine you had gotten long somewhere early in the game... maybe early Sept. If you'd been in the market since then and survived the Nov. correction, imagine how protective you would now be of your profits. Sources are saying that the vast majority of investors are now in the market "with no hedge", meaning with no puts. But you can bet your ass that the institutional managers have some protection of some sort. If they don't have puts in place, you can be pretty damned sure that they have trailing stops in place. Any who does not have protection in place would be fired on the spot. They have it in place alright. And we can rest assured that they're tightening those trailing stops with each passing day. The more wacky and contrived this melt-up becomes, the tighter they'll move them. Wouldn't you just love to know how tight those stops are, and how many shares are for sale at each price level just below the market? You can bet the farm that Goldman knows.

     

    That's most likely why there's been no sell-off allowed. And that's why there's little likelihood of there being any sell-off that they can control. I've been speculating on this for damned near a year now. I thought they'd lost control at the August correction, but I was wrong. But the further this Fed induced insanity has gone, the more likely it is that the xxxxxxx (the Fed, GS and their minions) are probably finally trapped. This is why we "need" to see if 1130 holds. If it does, I'd bet that it would be "barely". If it doesn't, then 900 might not hold either. Anyway, that's why I'm expecting violence in the markets. I don't even know whether to expect a nice, tidy slow melt-down that accelerates (if that's even possible), or a 40 handle gap lower one of these days. But whatever it is, when those stops begin triggering, there won't be a damned thing GS can do about it other than buy them all up... or just let 'em go and throw all their own shares into the pot as well. If the bankers ever want out, the question we've all be asking is "who they gonna sell to?". Now we can add the fact that not only do they have nobody to sell to, but they have billions of shares of competition who'll want out at the same time as the banks do. Man.... I can't see how it could be anything other than a violent crash.

     

    =======================

     

    Yeah Jeff, the fact that the government of the United States is going to borrow from themselves (actually from your childrens' and grandchildrens' futures) in 19 of the next 20 days in order to feed their filthy spending habits rather than exhibit any kind of self imposed restraint in the slightest, can't be a good thing. But it could fuel the equities market right to oblivion (50,000 on the Dow, priced in worthless dollars) if they keep it up. It can't continue without very, very serious repercussions. Bonds will tank if Bernanke doesn't knock it off. .
    13 Jan 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    As of this moment, the HO has triggered. We still have to wait to see if $NYMO is negative at the end of the day. The number of new 52 week lows continues to explode higher. At 135 it's already higher than yesterday's closing number of 121.

     

    New highs are now less than new lows. New highs are currently at 91 and that number meets the requirements. All other requirements are met except confirmation of the status of $NYMO at the end of the day. If the market sells off or just remains where it is, that condition will almost assuredly be met since decliners are also outpacing advancers at the moment.
    14 Jan 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks: What categories are seeing new lows? I've concluded that lows in one category don't necessarily negate the HO, as some have charged, but it would be interesting to know what comprises the universe of lows.
    14 Jan 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hey lower. It's definitely the muni sector that's getting hammered. It'll be interesting to see if Jim Meikka's adjustment to the HO requirements that was intended to account for the increased number of bond funds and ETFs is doing it's job. I'd have to think that a collapse of the muni bond market is meaningful nonetheless.
    14 Jan 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Rocks: I took a look at what's hitting the lows. As you said, the munis are getting clobbered. My thinking is that the HO needs to be reconfigured or recalibrated such that one sector alone doesn't trigger the HO.

     

    What's more alarming to me is that insiders are bailing at record rates. We may have had the January effect in December. Typically, February is a down month anyway. This one might be down a little more than most.

     

    That's exactly why I was checking into (SPX)'s RSI yesterday. Helped me figure out the July low, and it may be suggesting right now that the market is about to rollover in the next few weeks, despite all the forthcoming terrific earnings reports. Intel had a great one, yet it fell back.

     

    Take a peek at this article:

     

    www.cnbc.com/id/41076255
    14 Jan 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure I agree with that completely Maya for the simple reason that if it was the banking sector alone that was setting off the HO, I'd want to know about it. If the HO were re-configured so that there were, for example, a maximum number of new lows that would be considered out of each sector, it would never trigger. As it is, the HO has only triggered 30 times since 1985, It takes a real extreme to set it off, so I think it works well enough. I don't think that a collapse of the muni-bond market being the reason that the HO is triggering is a good excuse to discount its signal. At the very least, had the HO not gone off today we wouldn't even be aware that the muni-bond market is collapsing. That alone is valuable info.

     

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

     

    One more note...the HO still might not issue an official signal today if the market keeps chugging higher because the MacLellan oscillator has to finish lower on the day. At the moment that's not a given.

     

    Yeah, for sure the complacency is just unbelievable. I really can't believe it, how investors are 'all-in' with no hedge, no puts. But I imagine they have stops real tight. That's the main reason I believe those who manipulate the market will not let it sell off. And for those who still don't believe that the bankstas are controlling this thing, I can only wish them good luck. It's not a good idea to run on the freeway with a blindfold on... but that's what they're doing with a closed mind like that.

     

    But I'm also totally open to the idea that we might just see a reasonable correction before the market blasts off once again. I'm going to be watching the 1130 level real close. I'm not saying we're going to get there, but if we do... will it hold? That's a key level in my humble opinion.
    14 Jan 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Great counterpoint about the HO signaling the collapse in the munis; that's one frightening chart!

     

    You've changed me!
    14 Jan 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    Rocks
    it would seem tight stops would trigger a quicker drop...flash crash style.
    Thanks for the HO education and updates
    14 Jan 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Haha... I don't mean to change you Mr. Maya. You're just fine the way you are. But I do want people to really understand and accept that there's something going on here that's a bit worrisome. Hopefully investors will at the very least be real cautious at this time.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    The list is available from the official source for HO data, which is the WSJ:

     

    online.wsj.com/mdc/pub...
    14 Jan 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Without micro-examining the technicals, the HO - even if only one sector is responsible for the downside - is an indication that the highs might not be adequately discounting whatever is causing the lows. Like Cisco said....if municipal governments stop buying..... And in 1999 even the best, who thought that tech/Nasdaq was a bubble, never saw the DOW dropping so far.
    14 Jan 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the HO's signal today will be nullified by the fact that $NYMO will finish in the green. That's a no no. It's also interesting that for all intents and purposes, every stock that made a new 52 week low today was a muni-bond fund. That particular sector is being decimated and the media isn't saying a word about it. It's lost 10% since late Oct. Meanwhile, the broader markets have gained 25% in basically the same time frame. In any event, if nothing else, the HO today identified that one sector of the market is in freefall. I suppose we should be thankful for that alert at least!

     

    MUB - stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

     

    On a side note, if we created a HO for the Nasdaq or Compq, they wouldn't be anywhere near issuing a signal today as the melt up in those markets continues unabated.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2054) | Send Message
     
    Are we still alive here with the Hindenberg Omen updates and commentary. No posts by AR in over a week is a troubeling condition. IIRC, weh have had it giver one signal and are waiting for a confirmation before we are are crash alert. Is that where it stands or have I missed something? Anyway, it seems that we are getting low on rocket fuel.
    26 Jan 2011, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    Don't think you missed anything. Just not having any close calls right now it seems.

     

    Benny can still print rocket fuel if it gets to low. Thats the sad fact in this manipulated market. Unfortunately the more they make the bigger the boom for inflation some day. Wait for QE3 and beyond.

     

    They will not give up on this if only to prove they were right until they aren't right.
    26 Jan 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi Augustus. Had I not gotten a PM from John Lounsbury I wouldn't have even known that you'd posted here. For some reason I'm not getting any more alerts when my friends post a comment or when somebody responds in an article I'm following. Does anybody know if there's a setting that I have to change?

     

    Anyway, here's what's been going on with the HO:

     

    Since the Nov. low, the market has clearly been propped up with POMO injections to the point that the S&P hasn't once closed below its 10 moving average for 38 straight sessions now. That has never before occurred in the history of the universe... the history of the universe being 82 years. And during that entire run, neither has the S&P been "permitted" to make a correction of as much as 1% (not even if it were a 3 day 'correction'). Needless to say, this too is unprecedented. As long as the Fed is going to refuse to allow the market to ever drop again, there will never be any reaction to the HO's signal. Or maybe I should clarify that...

     

    During several sessions last week and this, there have been many days where all the ducks were lined up to set off an HO signal. The only missing ingredient was the number of new 52 week lows. In other words, the number of new 52 week highs being produced has been rather pathetic all through this entire run-up off the Nov. low, hovering more or less continuously right in the range required for an HO signal. So at least we know that this run-up is as phony as a $3 bill. The problem I think is that it's most likely that after a run like this, the number of stops that must below this market must be just mind boggling. And we know with certainty that Goldman knows exactly where they are. I'm quite convinced that if Goldman is going to let the market fall enough that those stops start triggering, they're either going to have to be prepared to buy them all up or let the avalanche begin. Another thing that's certain is that the longer they keep this up, the worse the correction is likely to be (at least faster... very fast). And I hope nobody wants to debate the "conspiracy theory" aspect of what I'm saying because it's not a theory. Besides, I won't even entertain that debate.

     

    Bottom line is that the number of new 52 weeks highs is anemic averaging about 175 with a slight downward bias. Back in April, when the market was roaring, that number was a much healthier average of about 450 (reaching as high as 670). So the current effort really pales in comparison to the April high because although new highs in the markets have been attained, the number of new 52 week highs have not been participating to anywhere near the extent that they should be if this were a healthy market.

     

    Meanwhile, the number of new 52 week lows has been inching upward but not getting quite high enough to trigger the HO. On some days not even close. When it 'does' get close, the market spurts upward, putting an end to the possibility of that number rising enough to trigger the HO signal on that day. I'm not suggesting this is by design, but rather just one of the effects of a market that keeps getting cash infusions regardless of what's happening in the world.

     

    At this rate, we're eventually going to see the day when 2745 issues are lower on the NYSE and 265 are higher, yet the S&P is still going to close higher on the strength of the final few horses who are getting all the sugar. I know that sounds awfully facetious, but that's simply a mild exaggeration of what's actually going on in the markets. It just chugs higher. That's what the Ben Bernank wants. He said so. He wants everybody to be convinced that they are wealthy once again. He said so. He's an idiot. I said so.

     

    Sorry that here's been no commentary here, but really... what else is there to report? If the HO signal does go off I'll post a notice here. But I'm not convinced that it's necessarily going to happen now either, since it's possible that we may wake up one morning with the market so low that the number of required 52 week highs may never be attained). In that case, the Hindenberg Omen would have been proven to be about as useful as a chocolate tea pot. It's possible now that the market 'could' fold like a $3 tent without an HO signal even being registered. The longer this goes on, the more likely that's what might even happen (not really likely but entirely possible).

     

    I don't want to see any disaster, I just want to see some sense of reality in the world. C'mon Bernanke, enough is enough already... a healthy correction is now an absolute "must". The arrogance is nothing short of infuriating. In the private message, John asked me if I was disgusted. I told him "not really". I take that back.
    26 Jan 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    great take on the hindenburg omen, bernanke's illusions of grandeur, and the impending market collapse. couldn't have said it better myself.
    26 Jan 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    AR make sure the "Track new comments on this article" Box is still checked at the top of the blog. I have had some disappear on me and I was not getting updates.
    26 Jan 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guns. I do have them ticked. Here's a great example... I 'did' get a note that there was new comment here, yours. But a short while later, there was another comment, this time from robert b. (just below) and I was 'not' alerted of his new comment. I just happened to wander here and see it. Don't know what's going on. Do you have to click on "my feed"? Is that how you find out about new comments?
    26 Jan 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    AR: Greetings. The My Feed function has replaced the tracking dashboard. When you click on it, it will bring you to a page that shows the most recent comments by those you follow. The number in orange to the right bottom of your screen shows how many are in your queue. It still has some bugs but we are getting used to it. Some of the other suggestions from D.M.'s INSTA "What the thumbs up with that." are also being incorporated. Isn't Beta fun?
    26 Jan 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    There is not always an orange number. You may have to click on the picture of a letter with thumbtack in the top (my guess) to see if you have any comments. Sometimes it works sometimes it does not show a ourange "Count" of notes on articles you follow. Its weird... but it works if you click on it. Thats how its working for me.
    26 Jan 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Haha. No, apparently I don't like the beta version. According to data I see when I open the "my feed" tab, the only people leaving comments on S.A. are the "gades". None of the other people I'm following are commenting... or else I'm not being alerted about their comments. Over the past couple of months it's gotten very quiet where I live . lol But thanks for the info. I just don't know what to do about it though.
    26 Jan 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » doubleguns - - -

     

    I have the same observation. Sometimes there is an alert visible but other times not. But when no alert is visible I often find comments waiting when I click on the note with press pin logo.
    26 Jan 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Who else do you need to follow? Sheesh...
    26 Jan 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (942) | Send Message
     
    I'm not happy about the new changes SA implemented period. Traffic to my blog has dropped off considerably since they added the 100 different subgroups that people are classified under.

     

    Seems like interaction has decreased as well.
    26 Jan 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    I was just guessing the falloff in comments, stocktalks, blog hits, etc. was a co-indicator of complacency.
    26 Jan 2011, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18029) | Send Message
     
    Clicking on the little clipboard to the right of inbox will pull up the latest list of "new" remaining too.

     

    So my feed may not be required.

     

    E.g., when I came in to this insta, there were 6 "new. While I was typing this, I clicked the clipboard icon and it told me there was another new one. Since timestamp apparently works on when you enter the insta vs. the timestamp of a new comment, when I exit and click the clipboard icon again, it should show that one plus any new ones.

     

    Just tested that. If I exit, the notification of the new one goes away. Just buggy software or design I guess. But I did click my feed to leave it and then tried to come back in.

     

    This makes me think you don't need my feed at all, although I've not tested that.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jan 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18029) | Send Message
     
    Tested clicking the clipboard icon without hitting my feed first.

     

    Worked great.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jan 2011, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Jeff... the interaction has totally disappeared for me as well. For example, I like to chat with Michael Clark but never know when he's in this neck of the woods any more. I like to know when Peter Schiff has something to say but according to "my feeds" he doesn't participate on SA anymore. I doooooon't like it at all. Sorry to hear about the drop in traffic to your blog. It's tough enough to get traffic up into higher numbers as it is.
    26 Jan 2011, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Oh shyte.... I just tried your hint H.T. I clicked on the clipboard icon without first hitting the 'my feed' button and the fire alarm in the whole building went off. And now there's smoke pouring out of my monitor and my shiatzu chair just stared massaging my back for no reason. That's the last time I'm taking your advice.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    AR: Greetings. Just thought I would drop in to say HI and add another two cents. With all the manipulation currently taking place in all markets there are no reliable indicators, short or long. Even if events are catching up the information is spun to reflect something different than reality. Reminds me of that Dorian, Gray thing where only the hidden perception is ugly and the outward appearance is near perfection. LOL. I agree with you that when reality hits TPTB with a clue bat things could be spectacular. A veritable avalanche of uncontrollable events creating the perfect financial storm. Got gold?
    26 Jan 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    rocks taseko is looking very good here imo and sorry it is not a hindenberg comment
    26 Jan 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    John: Have you noticed or "felt" you readership has waned? I enjoy knowing what you're up to. But it seems much harder to track you, and your excellent work, down.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    OMG, I just had a 'funny' happen. I read your question to John and misread the word "readership" as "leadership". I thought to myself "that was rather rude... that's not like Maya!". Only upon re-scanning it did I get it right. OMG I laughed when I discovered my own error.

     

    I'm still chuckling about what a huge difference one letter can made. lol
    26 Jan 2011, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mayascribe - - -

     

    I have been working very long hours on Global Economic Intersection (GEI): econintersect.com/inde... I haven't been doing as many Instablogs and the frequency of my SA articles is more variable. The last two weeks I have been nursing a sick pet and that has reduced my output, along with getting out 2010 capital gains reports for my clients.

     

    I am not gathering as many followers as previously because I have been taken off the welcome screen for new readers who have the opportunity to sign up for some authors to follow. I had seen others who had been highly ranked lose that "privilege" and so I guess it was just my turn to follow them.

     

    Anyway, check out the new site when you have more than a few minutes - it has lots of nooks and crannies: four blogs (so far), five newspapers, two econometric sites (economic forecast with a proprietary economic indicator is one and employment measurement is the second) and a just opened online store (Marketplace).

     

    The venture is operated by Econintersect LLC, a company co-founded ten months ago with Steven Hansen.

     

    You may have missed it. I had an Instablog several days ago with a summary of GEI and announcing the opening of our fourth blog.

     

    So, you asked a short question and got a long answer.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    That's how wars get started!

     

    "I wish you good _uck!" said the ambassador.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John! A ways back I added your site to my puter's Favorites list.

     

    Thanks for the reminder. Moved your site up to the top of my wildly lengthy list of sites I regularly follow, such that I can follow your site more often.
    26 Jan 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    The Japanese welcomed one of our presidents to japan after his election with signs that said "Happy Erection". I forget which president that was but just one letter off. LOL

     

    I am sure google would find that story.
    26 Jan 2011, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9976) | Send Message
     
    Just signed up for the Newsletter. Looking forward to you bugging me everyday, now!

     

    Hoping your pet rallies. Pets bring such joy (most of the time). When my months long journeys to Central America wane, I expect to get a dog.
    26 Jan 2011, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    Aparently its not that uncommon in japan.

     

    brog.engrish.com/2010/.../
    26 Jan 2011, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    ... but when a Japanese guy calls you a rittle plick he knows exactly what he's saying. You'd rather hear ohayo gozaimasu, right Guns? As long as it isn't ohayo gozaimasu you rittle plick. lol
    26 Jan 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8381) | Send Message
     
    In Japan I would not be a rittle plick, they would stare with envy.
    27 Jan 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi OG. There's no rule that this has to be an HO page, although many months ago we really did get out of line and start using these HO pages as a chat room. JL kind of asked us if we would try to refrain from that in order to attempt to keep the HO issue in focus. We've all complied because it made good sense. But he's not looking right now.

     

    OG, to be very honest, I'm just stumped right now. The market is long overdue for a correction. The argument for an ugly deflationary scenario to unfold seems to have been proven to be pretty flimsy at this point. Yet any credit crisis that re-emerges in Europe could change all that in a heartbeat. So even though at the present time it sure appears that the world will know nothing but inflation in the future, we don't know for sure.

     

    Sooooo... if it's the deflationary scenario that were to emerge (with massive inflation a couple of years down the road), the commodities including gold and silver (as well as the metals that Taseko mines) would take a huge hit. And when minerals drop in price, historically the miners get hit even harder. The vice versa is also true. I'm so torn right now with the macro picture that I don't even know what to say about Taseko. The May high of $6.25 might be a challenge to get through. I'm referring to TGB and not it's Toronto listing of TKO.TO. Oh... I see they're almost identical... and why not, the currencies are basically on par.

     

    I wish I could offer more, but right now the Ben Bernank has me pretty convinced that I'm stupid... first time in my life I've ever been faced with that possibility. I don't like it one bit either.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AR - - -

     

    I peeked. But you are on solid ground - more so than my reply to Mayascribe.
    26 Jan 2011, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    It's ok for you to peek... you own this house. lol

     

    BTW, is econointersect the site you had in mind when you asked me to inform you about when Marco's book is ready? He was very interested that you were interested, even though he does not know who you are, or that you are well known. Wait 'till he sees what a class beanery you run... he's going to be elated. I won't forget to hook the two of you up.
    26 Jan 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    I imagine that with today's sell off there might be one or two of you who are curious...

     

    As has often been the case lately, all the ducks are lined up. We're just waiting for the number of new 52 week lows to climb high enough. At the moment there are only 17 and climbing very slowly. We'd need to see 72. Given the depth of today's retracement, I highly doubt we're going to see that number rise much more from here today. The number of new 52 week highs being achieved is once again anemic today.

     

    52 weeks ago the market was just putting in a low. So the prices today are far above those levels. Therefore it probably stands to reason that a few more days of downside would be required to see an HO signal. Ironically, the market was in this same condition back in April, when it had climbed so far in 52 weeks that the odds of seeing new 52 week lows any time soon was difficult to achieve. That's why the HO had such a difficult time issuing a signal back in April. All we got was a very near miss one week before the flash crash and then another one I believe the day before the flash crash or on the morning of. We're in that same boat once again.

     

    Having said that though, not all stocks are "way up here" at these lofty levels. Last week there were over 100 that were within 3% of their 52 week low. With further melt up this week, that number is actually lower at the moment. So I'd imagine it'll be next week before a signal will be issued, "if" a signal is going to be issued at all. There's nothing saying the Fed can't swoop in to save us all yet again. But there's no question about it, today's action is impulsive rather than corrective, and that's a very serious situation.
    28 Jan 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Maybe this isn't the right place for me to interject this observation and maybe I shouldn't even be expressing my opinions, but I'll just tell you about a pattern I've seen a thousand times.

     

    If you look at a 30 min. chart of the S&P you'll notice that the move down today was basically a straight line impulse. Over the past 7 bars (3.5 hours), we've seen the market locked in a very, very tight range. All I want to point out is that very often I've seen these little consolidations end up being smack dab in the center of the entire leg down. I'm not saying that's what we're necessarily witnessing, but the oversold indicators have already worn off and the market hasn't rebounded one bit. I don't think this initial downleg is anywhere near over yet. I could be flat out wrong, so take it with a grain of salt.

     

    The situation in Egypt is very, very serious with the fall of the regime a real possibility. I'm thinking Suez canal here. So be careful holding longs over the weekend. It seems to me there's a big potential for bad news and very little potential for anything good coming out of this weekend. I also think the VIX is up 22% for a reason.

     

    This is definitely out of the "for what it's worth" files.
    28 Jan 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    AR: Greetings. If your on the other side of the trade from the turmoil things will brighten up quickly. Like those holding tanker stocks and such.
    28 Jan 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Hi Robert. I'm sure a few stocks will benefit in times of turmoil. The Baltic Dry is down 33% this month, basically in freefall. In fact, a few of the new 52 week lows are being registered by shippers like NAT and GNK. So for the time being, tanker stocks are looking like they're in big trouble. BUT... they might be the first to turn around. I really don't follow that sector so I don't know. But I do keep my eye on BDI and there's no sign of strength in that index anywhere on the horizon at this time. Have a super duper weekend :-)
    28 Jan 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    You to sir, you to.
    28 Jan 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    30 Jan 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3979) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOTICE:

     

    A new blog has been started: seekingalpha.com/insta...
    10 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.