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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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  • AR, helloooOOoooOOOoooo. I thought there was news must just be a new sheet of silicon and pixels.
    10 Feb 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • The foundation upon which all great verbal structures are built, in this modern world.


    10 Feb 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Hi there Mr. Guns. How've you been? Still causing trouble down there? lol


    No, there's no big news on the HO front. Generally speaking all that's really showing up is that the number of new 52 week highs being registered is pretty darned anemic for a market that's only had one tiny correction in the past 25 weeks. Here's a chart that goes back about 4 years to show the history of new 52 week highs and how it related to the NYSE:


    At this very moment the number of new 52 week highs is at 112. At the end of the day that number would be somewhere around 400 in a healthy market. It's only been averaging about 175 for the past 3 months (and declining).


    Ironically, we once again see the market in a condition where 52 weeks ago the market was near its lows at the time. So again, it may be difficult to establish new 52 week lows until after the market has sold off a bit ('IF" it's ever allowed to sell off at all). That's exactly what happened in August and as a result the trolls had a field day declaring that the HO had failed. The same condition existed last April when the HO issued two very near misses just before the top. Logically though, the HO signal 'should be' late. The skeptics can laugh all they want, the HO is simply a tool similar to a gas gauge. Normally, if a pilot is flying his plane and the fuel gauge reads "empty" he will be expecting that a correction in his altitude is probably a logical outcome. The same thing applies here. At this point, it's all about "fumes". lol


    That's about it... nothing to report other than the fact that the atmosphere is ripe for an HO signal "if" the market ever corrects. Judging by today's stick save, while every other major market in the world dropped by 1-2% overnight, it's hard to believe that the blatant and admitted manipulation we're witnessing here won't drive the market ever higher. I have no idea how this all ends but it's surely going to be much worse than it would have been in a normal market. It's flat out scary what the Fed is doing. Not to mention against the law.
    10 Feb 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • POMO vs HO - very interesting to follow
    10 Feb 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • You're welcome DigDeep. In fact, this is exactly what the HO was designed to do. At market tops it's common, indeed expected, that fewer and fewer companies will be making new 52 week highs and at the same time other companies which are not participating in the rally will stealthily move closer and closer to attaining a new 52 week lows. To the average investor who has their money being managed by 'professional' (cough) money managers, this situation is completely invisible.


    To me personally it's rather infuriating that the market is being driven higher and higher by admitted Fed interventions while many (but not all) of the other foreign markets are being allowed to to take their natural course of at least registering a healthy correction. But my personal feelings about it are beside the point... the effect is the same in that fewer and fewer companies are being fed the sugar while others are left to their own in the 'real world'. I'm not suggesting that 'all' the new 52 week highs are courtesy of the Fed's efforts either, nor does it really matter, does it? Just the fact that we're witnessing a certain degree of polarity in the market, regardless of the cause is enough to become very vigilant. As of the past few weeks the HO hasn't come very close to issuing a signal. Nor should it... the market is screaming higher and higher.


    But one of these days the HO will issue a signal. I suspect that the market is now in that aggravating situation where we're likely going to have to witness a fairly hefty drop in the market and perhaps for 2 or 3 days in a row before the HO will trigger. Although it has never happened before, it's even mathematically possible that a very serious market correction (or worse) could begin and the HO fails to signal for weeks. But that is most unlikely scenario.
    11 Feb 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • AR, you say...'But my personal feelings about it are beside the point...' I disagree - because you're right and more people need to be aware. Maybe people knew deep down that using their RE as an ATM machine wasn't right and mortgage originators, rating agencies and lenders knew (deep down) that the majority of subprimes weren't worth damn - BUT they still rode the wagon.


    I think plenty of people are getting 'fed' up with the liquidity pump. I think the awareness is key - because when this new bubble pops (when QE slows down or stops), the correction will be a helluva jolt.


    The primary dealers certainly aren't net short - maybe hedged - but heavily net long in risk assets...while income assets suffer. When the music stops, It's going to be a loud pop IMO, not unlike the RE bubble bursting. Add to that, the stops - how tight are they? When the market does hit sell stops, might be a new meaning to flash crash.


    Maybe the markets were never 'free'. But the manipulations going on now, I think, are so far away from a free market it's enough to make me puke.
    BUT most are drinking the kool-aid of higher (short term) asset prices...just like the RE bubble.


    I do wonder about the ETF's and possibly effecting the HO -although maybe it's a more comprehensive collection - that better represents disparity


    Thanks for your insights. Alberta must really rock!
    11 Feb 2011, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Haha, yes Alberta really does rock. It's an economic powerhouse where the government always seems to 'get it right'. The gov't is so stable and responsible that the people have returned them to power in every election since 1971. If I'm not mistaken, Alberta is also the only jurisdiction in the western hemisphere that has no debt. As a result it's also home to what I personally believe is the safest bank in the world, the Alberta Treasury Branch (ATB):


    The ATB is a bank that was formed specifically for the people of Alberta and it's backed by a debt free province. So deposits are pretty safe there. lol In fact, while most banks will guarantee deposits to the tune of $100k or in some cases $1M, two different reps at that bank have told me that although they don't broadcast it widely, there is no limit with ATB. And yes, Americans are welcome to open accounts if they can provide an Alberta address. They don't even have to reside in it, so what the hell... use mine. Its employees are also the most customer friendly that I've ever encountered in 'any' bank.


    And the west half of the province is kinda pretty to boot:
    11 Feb 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Market turnaround today is probably from rumor of Mubarak leaving Egypt. Don't know if that news wears off by the end of the day. No POMO today so it should be tanking along with the China int rate hike and.......well the list is endless in a manipulated market so there really is no telling what direction it will go. *walks off hands waving in air*
    10 Feb 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Rocks, Guns: Greetings. Rocks and guns sounds like an Egyptian street fest I mean protest. Market looks to be in the tank and circling, circling, circling. I'm back in the hot tub watching it spin. If something I like comes unglued I'll buy it.
    10 Feb 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Just a quick comment to point out that the number of new 52 weeks highs is very strong today. At 313 it's much stronger than the numbers we've been seeing lately. That seems to support the notion that the market is perhaps even gaining steam legitimately. The most alarming aspect though is the neg. divergences seen everywhere, on every time scale. Those conditions warn that not all is well. Nonetheless, that's a whole lot of new highs we've seen today.


    Congratulations to the people of Egypt... it must be absolutely euphoric for them. Of course the biggest question now I guess is what path the new military government is going to take. Mubarak was a friend of Israel and I'm not sure what the military's feelings are about that. It's going to be very interesting. It's going to be equally as interesting to see what happens when 2.5 million people march on Wall Street and the White House. I don't know when that day will arrive but I believe it's inevitable.


    Have a great weekend. No doubt the people of Egypt will. Rock the casbah!
    11 Feb 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rocks: Pretty sure you're going to love this half hour animation:


    The AMERICAN DREAM is a 30 minute animated film that
    shows you how you've been scammed by the most basic
    elements of our government system. All of us Americans
    strive for the American Dream and this film shows you why
    your dream is getting farther and farther away.


    Do you know how your money is created? Or how banking works?
    Why did housing prices skyrocket and then plunge? Do you really
    know what the Federal Reserve System is and how it affects you
    every single day? THE AMERICAN DREAM takes an entertaining but
    hard-hitting look at how the problems we have today are nothing
    new, and why leaders throughout our history have warned us and
    fought against the current type of financial system we have in
    America today. You will be challenged to investigate some very
    entrenched and powerful institutions in this nation, and hopefully
    encouraged to help get our nation back on track.


    14 Feb 2011, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • thx for the vid maya
    14 Feb 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome, Jeff. Want you to know, I've been reading your articles, and though I've yet to comment much, I'm in the same camp with much, if not all, of your writings.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Thx Maya, appreciate the silent head noddings. What part of the world are you from?


    Your book sounds fascinating. I have a friend who is quite spiritual and has spend a fair amount of time in south america hanging out with shamens and even some mayan's if memory serves.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • JP: Philly suburbs. Thanks. I've been lucky enough to spend some time with authentic Mayan shamans. Seen things, felt things, I would never write about in this forum. But then, I also was unlucky enough to invest way too much time with a supremely brilliant charlatan. His chicanery landed him in jail.


    Suggest your friend read, "Rainforest Remedies," by Rosita Arvigo, and sequel, "Rainforest Home Remedies," by Rosita Arvigo and Nadine Epstein. A documentary made about recently deceased 103 year old Don Elijio Panti, whom under which Rosita tutelaged, was shown in Belize. The documentary was received with such enormity, it was shown in Belize every night or so, for months.


    Another favorite is, "Secrets Of The Talking Jaguar," by Martin Prechtel. Must read for shaman enthusiasts.


    All are the real deal, and fantastic insights to not only the ancient Maya, but also, that you have remedies to many common and uncommon ailments likely growing right in your back yard. Just great stuff!
    15 Feb 2011, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, you're the man. I don't mean to spoil your good intentions but I've seen that animation, as someone provided a link to it on another website. If I'm not mistaken, ZH also brought it to the forefront. But you're a good man for posting it here because everybody should know about it. Indeed, Chris Martenson's 3 hour 'crash course' exposed the same truth. I have to admit though, lately even Chris Martenson is doubting the truth behind his own video... he seems completely dazzled by the effect of money printing on the stock markets. So am I. Have to admit, the manipulation has been so powerful that my own confidence in my own supposed intelligence has been shaken to its very core. Bernanke is making every effort to convince me that I'm stupid. He's at least got me thinking maybe his playbook came right from Satan himself and that maybe I'm not in the loop. lol


    But I'm working on something here that's just a mind blower... and it's completely tied to the point you're making by offering the animation. I'm in the process of running my observations past a couple of other TA guys, just to confirm that I'm not nuts. Normally my self confidence isn't shaken by much, but right now.... wow, it's at an all-time low. But if I'm right, I'll post it on Eric McCurdy's TA pages, here:


    If the other TA guys can point out an error in my thinking, I'll be appreciative of that as well. But in that case, I'll probably just crawl back under my rock and possibly just capitulate and start drinking booze again until my head blows up. I quit drinking years ago just to make sure that I'd have all my faculties, but with years of complete sobriety I still haven't been able to figure it out. Frustrating me a wee bit. lol (I don't know why I'm chuckling, it isn't funny when I can't figure something out. I makes me mad as hell to be honest.)


    I don't know if I'll even post this particular observation. I have to talk with these TA guys first to see if they can see what I'm seeing. I'll let ya know. Thanks again for the link Maya.
    14 Feb 2011, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • wow, can't wait to learn what you got going on AR. reality will set in sooner or later as we can't print our way to prosperity.
    14 Feb 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Can't wait, Rocks. Did you read John Mauldin's latest piece this weekend? Much the untenable same forward thinking. I'll fetch the link for ya:



    By the way, your thinkings are being completely t-boned by Chopper Ben, his FED cronies, and the Treasury, as well as those mysterious ones...


    It's not your fault! Relax. Have a beer, or fifty! Any reasonable person, who has accumulated some wealth, does not want debt, any debt...except, with these tantalizing rates... And such the game goes.


    I was hoping JL was going to do his routine Sunday cartoons this week. Understandably, John is investing his time and his substantial prowess with his new website, which I've been reading, and its great. Though you know about it, for others, here is the link:



    But here's the other (fantastic!) cartoon I was going to post. Much shorter, and quite to the point about how the FED is giving the big banks, and the owners of those banks, (which own the FED) the deal of a lifetime, of many lifetimes, all while screwing Americans, as well as the rest of the world. Somehow, cartoons/animations can get across a point so much more succinctly than any article. This cartoon is fantastic in its dynamic simplicity:



    Have to say, both cartoons were provided to me via my Honduran archeologist pal. You'll be meeting him, Rocks.


    A little bit about my Honduran pal. His brother was the one who blew the whistle on the recent airport body scanners:



    His sister has a Nobel Peace prize. And we're together, hopefully, going to blow the lid off of conventional beliefs about the ending of the ancient Maya city of Copan.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Maya- all good
    AR - ditto JP's anticipation.
    Makes me want to provide some value here. I'm working on something - that being; Domestic reg's (& costs), and social/human (safety net) benefits vs EM producers and the reg's/costs and bene's they have to (or don't) build into their cost of production.


    I have a problem with uneven playing fields. Also an issue with just watching everything spilling 'off our table'.


    A friend of mine said 'that's protectionist!!'. I didn't agree with what's his name...Pat Buchanon - in the 90's. Now I'm thinking the guy had the right idea - my main point being, a key component of the problem - why the hell do we allow the import of goods vs our own production that's are shackled with reg's/bene's costs these EM producers don't adhere to.....?? Our producers can go to jail for EPA infractions - but we don't hold a similar standard to Wal-Mart and what they put on there shelves.


    Call it....Off-shore Cost Avoidance - coin it OCA
    OCA is driving employment away - by our own reg's.
    Why should OCA be acceptable?


    Save me 100 hours of research and tell me JL has covered this!
    Any links will do....
    15 Feb 2011, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DigDeep - - -


    I'm just starting to get into it. See


    There is a lot more to do. I keep saying I'm a day away from the next installment, but other crap (real life and work) keep getting in the way. I am finding some things in the data I'm looking at which are not what I expected when I started.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. Excellent info as usual.


    Restraining/blocking trade would require some major reasoning to even consider - poiltically and for my own opinion. I wouldn't expect to find discrepancies in reg's/benefits vs EU or Japanese production and my hunch is that S Korea has a decent regulation-benefit infrastructure. China, Brazil and other EM production, I think, would be an interesting comparison.


    My thinking is probably a bit unrealistic and tough to quantify...That being an industry by industry analysis of reg's (costs) we impose on ourselves vs reg's for foreign production, plus an overall human rights-benefits-safety net cost domestically v foreign. Not so much an analysis of 100+ countries, but the major EM producers.


    My premise is basically - why do we impose costs on ourselves but allow the import of production not held to the same standards? WMT stocks the shelves with goods galore, that very (very) likely don't have our standards built into their production.
    In my particular niche in the food industry, the comp's are glaringly evident.
    Tariff's aren't the answer IMO - still a miss-allocation.


    If that premise doesn't have merit - and any hope of actionable results - I'll save myself the time and not chip away from the day job.
    Thanks again
    15 Feb 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Assuming some of you out there are curious, there will be no HO signal today in spite of this sell-off. There are currently only 12 new 52 week lows and only 71 issues which are within 5% of establishing one. 52 weeks ago the NYSE was so far below this level that we'd have a difficult time seeing it with a telescope. This is why made the following statement in my Feb. 11 comment above:


    "I suspect that the market is now in that aggravating situation where we're likely going to have to witness a fairly hefty drop in the market and perhaps for 2 or 3 days in a row before the HO will trigger."


    It now appears this will indeed be the case.
    22 Feb 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • AR, thanks for the update. Interesting times indeed.
    22 Feb 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • You're welcome Guns. I can update it a bit now as well, now that the market has closed for the day. After the close the number of stocks which are within 5% of establishing a new 52 week low has risen from 71 to 100. And 60 of those are within 3%. So the market is now a little more 'accommodative' to getting an HO signal in the coming days than it was when I made the previous comment. But I'm not suggesting it's necessarily going to happen. In fact the odds probably favor some sort of bounce tomorrow at least. Heck, I'd say that if the market 'doesn't' bounce after a sell-off like we saw today, then I'd have to assume that JPM must have gone out of business last night. In any case, I've got my eye on it and will report any news on the HO right here.


    Hope you're doing well.
    22 Feb 2011, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • We're definitely in HO territory now folks. The market has not yet bounced as I thought was surely going to happen. As a result the number of new highs is only at 41. We need about 75 and that is very doable. The number of new lows is currently at 14. We need 75 of those as well and that is also very doable. But regardless of whether or not the HO issues a signal, these statistics alone are speaking volumes. They're simply pointing out that not many horses are pulling the market north and there are quite a few horses lined up at the south gate.
    23 Feb 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • We only need 4 horses for the apocalypse. What are all those other horses doing in there. LOL
    23 Feb 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • I forgot to mention they're in teams of 4s. Hitched to wagons full of gorgeous vixens. I suspect that as soon as they get out of the gate they'll be doing a u-turn and heading to Alberta. After all, they haven't met me yet and as is well known, that's every vixen's dream.
    23 Feb 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Wife on the front porch might have a say about that. Ever see a wife on a broom. Wait till the vixens show up. Your dead meat then. LOL
    23 Feb 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, last time I saw my wife flying her broom was in 1996. Haven't seen her since. So do I look worried? lol
    23 Feb 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • I would be worried..... worried she might come back!!!
    23 Feb 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • She was headed to the USA to find a good lookin' ex-marine with two guns. And you think I'm the one who should be worried? Duck and cover man... I'm tellin' ya a dragon headeth your way.


    In all honesty though, and in respect for her, I just gotta divulge that she's actually a very good friend of mine these days. A great gal... lives about 3 miles from me.


    50 new highs
    23 new lows
    23 Feb 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Incredible! Providence, R.I. has just issued pink slips to "all" school teachers effective at the end of the school year. Can no longer afford to pay them. It's really just a 'blanket coverage' which gives flexibility to the school board to fire as many as required in order to stay within their shrinking budget. They won't all be fired of course but it's still alarming as hell. Another shot across the bow of the muni market would be an understatement. I can't believe I just read this:


    54 new highs
    26 new lows
    23 Feb 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • New highs ended up at 60 and new lows at 27. The market is definitely flirting here. Tune in tomorrow!
    23 Feb 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • AR, there are communities that lay off EVERY year, then hire back. This is not a new technique.
    23 Feb 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Wow OG... I've never heard of such a thing. I still find it spooky. lol But thanks for enlightening me.
    24 Feb 2011, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • OG's correct, Rocks. Happens all the time. My Ohio bro-in-law endured the same thing, a year ago or two. He was a city attorney. Forced to take a pay cut, but lured back in with the entitled bennies for continuous years of service.


    Over in QC, I've written about a month ago how all kinds of public sector reductions are going to occur here in the US. Extrapolating, means there will likely be a surge in unemployment as the year progresses. Of course, these unemployed state, county, municiple workers will then all gain unemployment benefits. States win. US taxpayers lose.




    Knowing you, as well as others, are going to be in Copan, Honduras for the, "12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta," I put up an Instablog to assist getting there.


    Seems DoubleGuns and his wife, John Petersen and his wife, Tripleblack, possibly Mark Bern and his wife, will all be there. I foresee this list growing. But, we still yet have 665 days to figure things out.


    John L., you and your wife are invited, too. Could end up as the first annual gathering of Seeking Alpha members. Imagine that! Lest be assured that I will arrange the very best.


    All commenting here in the HO are invited:

    24 Feb 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Maya there may not be 665 days to get a hotel room. Twisted Tanya made comment about hotel rooms going fast. We are probably not the only ones with the idea to be at ground zero.


    I'm thinking a zepplin would be the preferred vehicle to avoid the entire chaos however. Maybe we can rent the Hindenburg II down in Copan for the big event. LOL
    24 Feb 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • The minimum number of new 52 week highs required today was 82. 81 were attained. But the number of new 52 week lows are still nowhere near what is required as of yet. So although new highs are very weak, so are the lows... although there are quite a few stocks that are withing striking distance of hitting new 52 week lows. Perhaps tomorrow or Monday we might see a signal issued. Or the market could just resume its uptrend, in which case the HO will once again be pretty much a non-issue. As of the close today... it's a non-issue.
    24 Feb 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Hey AR, did you see where your military has OKed it for out military to come get you if you get out of hand now. Seems your military can come get us too!!!


    What are they planning for....the HO. I think they are on to us.

    25 Feb 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • "allows the military from one nation to support the armed forces of the other nation during a civil emergency".


    And what, pray tell, would be the limits of declaration of "civil emergency"? Widespread political protest at various state or federal capitols? Have we known a government *with* limits on executive power recently?


    "He said the agreement is “benign” and simply sets the stage for military-to-military co-operation if the governments approve"


    All encroachments start out as well-intentioned and "benign".


    Maybe the Canadian government is better than ours, but I don't trust ours one whit to limit use of this new agreement to cases where it *might* be actually justified.


    This disgusts me to my deepest core because I truly believe that it will be used in cases where the government fears the population of the U.S. is exercising its constitutional right to shed the shackles of an oppressive government by any necessary means, *including* civil disobedience.


    And we'll have foreign, although from a friendly country, troops *at* *least* freeing our troops to suppress whatever the administration is objecting to, if not directly participating in the suppression.


    25 Feb 2011, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Yes Guns I'd heard about it but no thanks to our MSM. Not a peep out of them. I heard it from Connie Fogal who is a former politician and full time activist for the rights of Canadians. She emails me constantly asking for my email signature on various topics just to show the politicians that we're on to them. When we sign it, it's automatically sent to the politician. That's why we still have a totally free internet up here while Australia doesn't. She's the type who knows darned near everything Alex Jones knows. In fact she's been on his show.


    To quote Mr. Love above, "this disgusts me to my deepest core because I truly believe that it will be used in cases where the government fears the population of the U.S. is exercising its constitutional right to shed the shackles of an oppressive government by any necessary means, *including* civil disobedience."


    I couldn't have said that better myself. It horrifies me to think that Canadian troops could be sent to the USA to help keep the peasants in control. It's the oldest trick in the book, as evidenced in Libya this week.


    I DO NOT WANT AMERICAN TROOPS ON OUR SOIL... EVER, FOR ANY REASON. And I'm equally ballistic about not wanting Canada's great image tarnished by our having to send troops to the USA to keep Americans under control. That's outrageous and infuriating beyond words. Do the orcs expect that Canadian military are going to shoot Americans when they're told to? God almighty, what the hell is happening on this earth? Satan is unleashed here but I don't think there's a single Canadian soldier who would obey that order. In fact I doubt there's a single Canadian officer who would even utter such an order. I hope that goes both ways. I think the bastards are getting concerned that US marines will refuse to follow orders to shoot American protesters. So they think they'll just get the 'uninformed' traitorous Canadians to do it. I've got news for them! Bad news. We don't shoot friends for money.


    I also agree with H.T.L in all his other points as well except that I'm not so convinced our government is any better than yours. Harper did not tell any of us about this traitorous agreement.


    Bod bless you both and god damn the bankers all to hell.
    25 Feb 2011, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Back in the late 60's, it was unreal to see the events unfold at Kent State, If we think it couldn't happen now, we're kidding ourselves.


    That said - the first regime that allows/directs that path - will be the next regime brought to its knees - before whatever election date. Poor leadership and hood-wink politics is getting old.


    thanks for the HO updates
    Any way to try and make sense of the liquidity pump cesspool we're in is a help.
    26 Feb 2011, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, I was barely out of my teens when Kent State went down. At the time I didn't appreciate what had really happened because I was naive. It didn't dawn on me that the shooters were national guardsmen and the implications that had. It may not seem like much of a difference between national guardsmen or municipal police who did the shooting except for the fact that the ultimate orders to shoot would have been issued by different agencies in each case. The orders for a national guardsman to shoot certainly came from a level higher than a "city" level. That's the key here. So I'm afraid it could indeed happen again. I have absolutely no doubt that theory will be proven to be fact on the first day martial law is ever declared. I don't think that day is far off either. I'll bet it happens this year or certainly by the end of 2012 because I get the sense that some of the states are already becoming somewhat of a tinderbox.
    26 Feb 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe we can call the Canadians to come in and get those Wisconsin democrats out of their motels over their state border, so they can vote on pensions. That's tongue in cheek of course.
    26 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • OG, I know you're having a wee bit of fun with that idea. And that's just fine. But I assure you, Canadian troops want no part of that. lol


    Deep down my biggest fear is the underlying reasons for this. There is no good reason for one country's military to step foot on the other's. The conspiracy believer in me is quite convinced that the underlying reasons are evil. I can assure you that if American troops were seen on Canadian soil they would be despised very, very deeply. In no way does that reflect any form of general Canadian dislike of Americans because that doesn't even exist. We certainly are not fans of the US administration though, but that's an entirely different issue. It's just the idea of "foreign" troops trying to control us that is thoroughly despicable. I'm sure you can relate to that. I have no doubt you wouldn't like it if Canadians were doing that on your turf... and I wouldn't blame you one iota.


    It makes very little difference to us if the foreign troops were American, Bulgarian, Chinese or Russian. The only difference would be the degree of anger and to an even greater extent the degree of fear involved. I have no doubt you could relate to that aspect as well. You'd probably rather have Canadians on your soil than Chinese military or Russian. But really... what's the difference? You wouldn't like it. The whole concept is just flat out wrong in every respect. It could even be the beginning of an effort to try to stir up some hatred between the USA and Canada. With the propaganda machine in full effect, we've seen Canada bashing going on to an alarming degree in the American MSM from time to time... when it suits the agenda of the masters. And it's very effective because unfortunately, most Americans jumped on that bandwagon when the effort was in full swing. It's infuriating what they can do. So I'm always suspicious and very deeply troubled by things like this. So is H.T. Love obviously, and guns no doubt, and you too I'm quite certain. It's just an awful, horrible thing to allow happen. We can't allow them to drive that wedge between us... ever. Unfortunately this is just the tip of that wedge and if it takes them 2 or 3 decades to stir it up, they'll do it... if it suits their agenda. And I'm certain they have an agenda. All the best :-)
    26 Feb 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • And here's another danger OG... what if Canadian troops were sent south of the border and some nutjob decided to shoot a couple of them... just to stir things up. What if several innocent Americans were shot and innocent 'strawman' Canadian troops were wrongfully blamed? Could you imagine how many Americans would believe that story, that the evil Canadian killers were nothing less than vicious animals? Could you imagine the uproar on both sides of the border in either case? And it could even happen up here in reverse. I'd like to think that common sense would prevail and that the citizens of both countries could see through such an awful scenario as being a 'strawman' event, but there are enough people in each country who are still spoon fed by the propaganda branches that it could quickly grow into a very bad atmosphere. The inherent dangers to this whole concept are just unacceptable. Very bad news no matter how we slice it.
    26 Feb 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • AR that unfortunately is precisely what I believe would happen. I know there are nut jobs that would go off their rocker as soon as foreign troops set foot on their turf. There would be shooting and then return fire to protect ones self and it would escalate so bad. It could turn into the event after the Brits shot the minute men in Lexington and then moved onto concord. After they left concord they were hounded the entire way with irate folks shooting at them from every tree, barn and house. I think the brits suffered 285 casualty's from that, with muskets not doubt. Today it would be a slaughter.


    I am afraid I could not blame the people that stood up to a foreign army on its soil. Liberty is not foreign troops on your soil. All I can say is I would expect the Canadians to shoot back and the Americans too. That is why this is such an evil, vile, disgusting, traitorous agreement. It is a problem no matter how you look at it.


    What civil event would be so big that the Canadian military, firemen, police, citizens, boy scouts, girl scouts you name it that it would require our military to show up or vice versa. There is only one reason for foreign troops to arrive. To execute the locals and they just might pick some hand selected nut jobs in the military to do that. There is no other reason for TROOPS to be sent in. We can loan you our firemen or any other resource or vice versa but not troops. NO SIR that's wrong.


    Amazing this was not very well publicized here that I know of and I wonder how many people really know about this agreement.


    Wonder just whose idea was this? They need hung.
    27 Feb 2011, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • AR, this occurred in 2008?!
    Look at the link dates and tell me if it shows 2008 when you click on it:


    The link I provided before also says 2008. But the comments say 2011. What do you make of this?
    26 Feb 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, the deal was signed in 2008.


    I remember hearing Alex Jones talking about many of these agreements and about the fact that there was a contingency of Yugoslavian soldiers training in a secret facility somewhere in Montana. The US has signed these deals with many nations, none of which are as friendly as Canada is. Anyway, Jones went to the site to confront the mayor of the nearest town (I can't remember the name of the town but I believe it started with 'H'). The mayor and some of the townspeople were in support of having those foreign soldiers on American soil because the town got a few dollars of commerce out of the deal due to the fact that those foreign soldiers had to buy the odd chocolate bar type of nonsense. It became a hot little topic once Jones got there and brought it to the surface for many Americans to see. Those who follow Jones knew all about it back then. But at the time, there was no mention of this agreement with Canada. I didn't find out about that one until much later.
    27 Feb 2011, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Just so that any readers who are curious, know that I'm still here, still watching, I'll post a chart of something completely off topic. 3 weeks ago I mentioned that I was working on something that I felt was of interest and that I was going to chat with some other TA guys about it. Some of you showed some interest. But I never did pursue it other than to simply keep this chart in my library for my own reference.


    Basically, it's a study of the price of equities when priced in gold (or oil, or worse yet, silver or food commodities). Eric McCurdy also addresses this issue but he uses a slightly different method. Yet he sees exactly what I'm seeing. I actually owe Eric an apology because I'd said that I would address this issue on his insta. I just got sidetracked with other things and have been unable to do that yet. My apologies Eric.... you're a stud of an analyst and a good friend:


    In any event, this chart is showing that when priced in terms of "real stuff", the equities markets are actually in a vicious deflationary phase, one that's very unlikely to reverse for perhaps years. It's nothing short of stunning to be quite honest. But you really have to suspend your concept of paper money, American dollars, Euros... all paper money... pretend it doesn't exist and then look at this chart as though you paid for your gasoline in bushels of corn or with a tin of coffee (anything but paper money). The bottom line is that while investors get the impression they're gaining wealth with a rising stock market, they aren't. They're losing horribly and have been ever since the stock market highs of 2000:


    On the HO front, the situation is as described a couple of weeks ago. The atmosphere is ripe for a signal but 52 weeks ago the market was far, far below where it is today. Therefore, we're going to need to see a bit more downside before the required number of new lows is attained. This is very similar to the situation in August and November except for one very important item... the market is now 30% higher than in August.


    Nevertheless, once we get a signal it will probably be sufficiently late that detractors will laugh and declare... "see, the HO failed yet again". But the odds are that they won't be laughing for long. The HO actually didn't fail in August... granted it was late for the very reasons detailed above. In reality it's only failed twice since its inception. But once we see a signal, we really must take it seriously because the possibility of a much larger correction than 5% is very real.
    7 Mar 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • AR, there is a silver S&P chart priced in silver here that is very interesting. It points out very clearly what you are saying.


    7 Mar 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Wow! Thanks for that link bud. That article shows "exactly" what I was trying to point out here. Dayum... you must have had that one up your sleeve waiting for me to write this comment. Talk about impeccable timing and a perfect fit. Man you're quick on the draw today, not to mention accurate. lol
    7 Mar 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • That was just his left hand too!


    7 Mar 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • AR, I got your back man. Count on it. Fully support ya. With charts if necessary.
    7 Mar 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Lol... no doubt. The link guns provided really couldn't have better supported what I was trying to show. Very timely. Nice to see you H.T.L., you're still the only person I know who's brain is non-organic. Very cool!
    7 Mar 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • FWIW, over the past 3 weeks there has been a marked decrease in the number of new 52 week highs. The 20 day average of that number currently sits around 200 and has been in decline since mid Feb. Yesterday there were approx. 140. At the moment there are only 95 (although it's cumulative and will likely climb as the day moves forward). But it's still a surprisingly low number considering that leading up to the April high that number was averaging about 330. Today the market is 8.2% higher than the April high yet the average number of new highs is 40% lower. This definitely shouldn't be occurring in a healthy bull market. But then who ever said this was a healthy market? Having said that though, today's burst higher is on pretty good breadth.


    On a different topic, Bill Gross must have spilled his coffee or something today... he's a little grumpier than usual. He's accused of being a bit of a FED basher but who can blame him? Unfortunately he's telling the truth here:

    8 Mar 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Doomy Catch 22! Thanks for the link, Rocks!
    8 Mar 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • 1 Canadian + 1 American = Beautiful Music

    13 Mar 2011, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AR - - -


    Thanks. Sarah is the best pure voice since Karen Carpenter.
    13 Mar 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • I've always been partial to Judy Collins.





    With choir:


    13 Mar 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks H.T.


    Some friends of my little brother played Amazing Grace on their pipes as the hearse carried him away. My older brother is the owner of the funeral home that took care of his needs. Needless to say, I was unable to get through Judy's rendition, but her voice is indeed sweet.
    13 Mar 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • I'm glad you liked it John. I particularly like Sarah because she represents what is so typical of the Canadian style, brimming with confidence yet with a laid back casualness about it. That was kind of displayed by the fact that she appeared on this stage with Josh in bare feet. And Groban is such an immense talent that in my humble opinion the two of them together produced something approaching pure magic.
    13 Mar 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • I really enjoyed this particular rendition of Amazing Grace. Dont think anyone can sit through it and remain unmoved.





    13 Mar 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Wow! Jeff that's just outstanding. I have a real tough time getting through it but I recognize those women. They're from Ireland (as were all 16 of my gggrandparents), but judging by your last name my guess is that you already know where these ladies are from :-)


    It's ironic that this song is often associated with Scots, mainly because of the bagpipe versions and in this case is performed by Irish, but it was actually written by an Englishman. Go figure. It's a bit ironic too that Laoise Ní Cheallaigh (Lisa Kelly) looks remarkably like a very dear friend of mine when I was a teenager, who was also Irish.
    13 Mar 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Good morning everyone.


    Over the past several trading sessions, the components of the HO have been in a rather funky condition where very few new 52 week lows or highs have been attained. For example, yesterday there were only 37 new highs and 30 new lows. In the past I've mentioned many times how it was mathematically possible for a market correction (or worse) to begin "without" a Hindenberg Omen signal to ever be issued. Since this has never happened before, I've been particularly concerned that some investors may be thinking "until I see that HO signal, I know the market is safe". This is not necessarily so and I've made that quite clear for those who've bothered to pay attention. The most likely scenario for this to occur would be that some day we were going to wake up to a savage gap lower in the markets and perhaps never look back. Judging by what occurred in the Japanese market last night, we may be witnessing that scenario unfold. This is what happened in the Nikkei last night. (I'd posted this chart on a few different locations last evening as well... as it was unfolding):


    Two years worth of gains on the Nikkei have been wiped out in the past two sessions. When I went to bed last night, the futures in the German market had fallen as much as 2.8% but has recovered half of that by time my head hit the pillow. When I awoke, it was down 5%. It appears that our market too, will be opening with a gap lower of about 2.5%. Unfortunately, these are the type of conditions I feared 'might' happen. Well... it's about to happen so I just want to reiterate that if the market doesn't recover enough this week, the odds of seeing an HO signal are undoubtedly very slim. That's not to say that over the coming weeks the FED might drive this market ever higher... that could happen too. They've demonstrated so much irresponsibility, combined with so much power that I just have no idea what they're ultimately capable of. But what we're witnessing is the result of their interference by having flooded the world with liquidity and driving markets all over the world ever higher based on that liquidity and nothing else. I believe what we're about to witness is an unwinding of that liquidity. I just don't know... they might have enough power left to put on a display today and tomorrow of biblical proportions, and somehow drive the American markets higher. I'm not banking on that.


    I wish you all the best and sincerely hope you have been putting some defenses in place for a market correction or reversal. We're in for a bit of a ride here that's not going to end with just a few down days. Godd bless you all and may he have mercy on Japan.
    15 Mar 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • AR, the HO is just one thing to watch. There are so many more. We are seeing just one of those many possible situations and we may not be done seeing them. Think another quake somewhere....
    15 Mar 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Indeed buddy... I was thinking about that yesterday when I was commenting on the elevation of the San Onofre nuclear plant. The seawall beside that plant, at least according to Google Earth, is only 7' above the water.
    15 Mar 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • I used to live in Irvine Ca and drove past that plant a lot traveling down to Camp Pendleton. I have also fished right in front of it. Water temp change sometimes would bring in large groups of fish. I remember a great Spanish mackerel day there when we caught and filled every live well, ice chest and burlap bag on the boat. Had to fight the sharks off the burlap bags full of fish tied to the side of the boat. Had to call it a day when we could no longer keep them away.


    Sold the fish to the bait store for bait. They are not good eating in my book. My wife on the other hand loves mackerel.
    15 Mar 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » DG - - -


    Holy Mackerel!!! Bait fish? When I was kid, in WW II years, mackerel was a staple in New England.


    Another quake? The closest proximity of the earth to the moon in many years is occurring right now, peaking on March 19 I believe. It has been postulated that the added gravitational pull can trigger earthquakes.
    15 Mar 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • It's an interesting topic isn't it John. I haven't studied exactly how gravity works when considering the distance between two bodies but I believe it's like the effects of wind upon an airplane as it increases speed. The change in the wind force increases with the square of that increase.


    I believe it's the same with gravity... the force of that gravity will increase with the square of the change in distance. So the closer they come together physically, the stronger the attraction to collide. I'm pretty darned sure this is how it works because when I see a beautiful woman I'm definitely compelled to collide with her. The closer I get to her physically, the stronger that force is. And darned it all, if she ever gets within arms reach... it's all over... the collision will happen. For example, when I see this woman, Natalie Glebova, the power of gravitational attraction is nothing short of astounding:


    If it weren't for one other critical factor, I'm certain that Natalie and I would collide in a glorious melding of bodies and souls that could only result in a state of rapture, a pure nirvana that would last throughout the ages. And that factor is that certain physical bodies also possess the force of repulsion. In the human species, only the female gender is capable of deploying this very powerful force... simply by willing it. This is in my view, the most powerful force in the universe, for it can instantly neutralize and completely annihilate what was previously perceived to be an overwhelming sense of attraction. Whether she enacts that force or not is solely at her discretion.


    When I finally meet up with Ms. Glebova, I fully expect that she will elect not enact that force and that our bodies will collide in an incandescent explosion of a mutually monumental craving for an epic melding of body and soul... one of truly biblical proportions, culminating in a never ending coexistence in a brilliant spark-filled whirlpool of euphoric paradise.


    I also believe I can lift a tractor over my head.
    15 Mar 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AR - - -


    I think you are "moon gazing" too much.
    15 Mar 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • That will likely continue until 'you' moon me.
    15 Mar 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • John please give us fair warning first. I do not want to "see" that. No sir, no way, no thank-you. It might be a fine moon but just not interested.


    AR enjoy all you want. I am passing on this one. LOL
    15 Mar 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Posted this in the Gades QC. It might be helpful here too.




    Click on details to get more detailed info on actual quakes.


    Alaska and Ca are really rocking too. Lots of small quakes.
    15 Mar 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you so much AR for keeping us abreast of this.


    Personally, with all the corruption, fraud and fiat flowing through our markets, I question using ANY indicator/trend anymore.


    The market is completely rigged, based on foreign earnings (earnings never to be realized HERE, the CEOs aren't stupid) and a virtual waterfall of funny money.


    Hub and I have been having the argument for a long, darn time. He thinks things are still normal, right and the power (hubris) of our country will win.


    I think the can has reached the end and we don't have many tricks left to keep kicking it.
    15 Mar 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • You're welcome Teresa. At the moment there are 75 new lows but only 18 new highs... even after this morning's rebound. So if the market sells off further today I can't see how an HO signal is possible. Yet the momentum shift in all global markets is no longer debatable which leads me to believe that the US markets are probably headed lower as well, in spite of whatever the FED's next move is.


    We're reading all kinds of opinions these days... that more QE is coming, that there will be an announcement that QE is finished, or that there will be no QE3 but just an extention of QE2 by another trillion dollars. Nobody knows at the moment, but I strongly believe that Bernanke would be horrified to announce more money printing when it's clear that the entire world now realizes that the run-up in commodities is due to his actions. They're already at the boiling point about it. Not only that, but with each previous announcement of further QE, the reaction from the bond markets was almost instantaneous, and exactly opposed to the intended purpose of QE. Basically QE blew up in his face within only minutes. All that has resulted is higher prices for everything including stocks and interest rates. So I guess what I'm saying is that no matter what the Bernank says, the gig is up and a stock market correction is coming. I don't think anybody in their right minds would be buying here with the expectations of new highs, other than those who are buying this morning... the manipulators.


    I'll show you a chart (one of many that I monitor) showing how the market internals are breaking down. This one shows the bullish percentage of the S&P 500. What it monitors is the percentage of stocks that are deemed as bullish on their point and figure charts:


    I don't care what Elliott Wave Theory says, I don't care what Steve Liesman says, I don't care what Bernanke says, I don't care what Chuck Norris says... when the market is breaking down, it's breaking down. This chart is purely mathematical and therefore objective, but I have to make it understood that even though it's message is clear, it still doesn't guarantee 100% that the market will keep dropping until the internals begin to repair. Only 90%. It's possible that the FED will weave even more dark magic and the investment world will buy into it. I think they'd be nuts to do that, but stranger things have happened. In that case, this chart would turn higher and put in a negative divergence (as opposed to price action) as the market swings higher. If that were to happen, then today's sell off would go down as one of the greatest head fakes of all time. The odds of that in my opinion are very slim.


    I hate to say it TE, but your hubby is wrong. I'm reluctant to say that because it's none of my business. But things have never been this "ab"normal... ever. The power and hubris of the FED will not win... unless their goal is to collapse the economies of the world, then ride in to rescue all of us with a one world currency which would be (100% guaranteed) owned and managed by the same orcs who currently run the global banking cabal. If that is their goal, they "might" win... if they don't lose control completely. I'm very reluctant to write this paragraph publicly and would rather send it to you personally because so many people will consider me a nutcase. But that would only be because they "truly don't understand" what is happening with the global credit system. This has nothing to do with Japan. But the Japan catastrophe will conveniently be blamed. At the most, it is the catalyst. But I'll publish these thoughts publicly anyway... if for no other reason than to just put the idea out there for people to consider.


    Nice to hear your voice again. I wish you well and hope you make a ton of dough going forward. I plan to. I've always had a dream of buying a nice little boat before I leave this world. And if I don't have it before then... well then I'm just not leaving. Here's a picture of what I have in mind:


    15 Mar 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you so much for your response AR.


    Yeah, you don't hate pointing out hub's mental block more than I hate living with it....


    Totally agree with much of what you say, thanks for the chart and I, too, know that good ole' Benny (and the experts/pundits and crooks) will use the Japanese disaster as an excuse to keep it up.


    Hope you get that boat friend. Hey, I live real close to the Great Lakes, swing on through on your way to warmer climes!
    17 Mar 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • You're welcome TE, my pleasure. On the boats thing... I'm kind of envisioning a day when my account starts rising properly and that boat starts dropping in price properly due to a temporary deflation scenario. Unfortunately that deflation scenario may not unfold if the damned dollar doesn't take off as I expect. It's not going to be Japan that makes deflation get rolling but the credit crises in Europe that have 'conveniently' disappeared off the radar thanks to events in the Middle East and Japan. Those events are minor compared to what will happen when Europe implodes.


    As Rahm Auerbach says, "never let a good crisis go to waste". In this case the orcs (who also own the media) are using the ME and Japan issues as a convenient diversion away from the other story that's just as big or bigger... the credit crisis. It hasn't gone away. Don't get me wrong, the other issues are of monumental importance. I don't mean to downplay them. The Japanese issue is particularly vivid and frightening. It's right out of a horror novel... by some deranged author who it is just plain sick in the head. Steven King... you're now just a pipsqueak.


    But just for a moment of diversion, why not take a happier journey inside my boat and see what one of these gorgeous things looks like. This lovely relaxing video provides a space where I sometimes go just to get away from it all:
    17 Mar 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • So many rocks aren't there?


    Who knows which one falling finally brings the whole darn cliff down.


    Don't know which, just feel it coming.


    Totally understand the deflation thing. The past year has been fabulous to get contracting work done here. Price of supplies was up a little, but labor is way, way down. Now, of course, the price of anything petrochemical, or things like lumber are shooting up. Apparently fuel costs do matter.


    Good luck on snagging your dream AR. Know that I'm rooting for you!
    18 Mar 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • John and Rocks: Gives me no pleasure to write this, but I suggested in Quick Chat about two weeks ago that there was going to be a surge in earthquakes do to the hotly debated subject of the Super Moon.


    I've read that when the moon reaches the March 19 perigee, the closest it has been for 18 years, that the gravitational effect is 7% more than "usual." All of the scientific community agree the tides will be stronger. But many hold that this Super Moon is responsible for causing the quakes as pure fallicy.


    What the scientists are missing is the extra stresses the moon serves the earth, as it rotates around the earth. Not on one individual day. But for weeks and months. For lack of a better term, we have a "syntrifical sloshing effect" occuring.


    What I want to know, and have found zero written on this matter, is that the magma underneath the earth's crust should also be affected by these tides and greater gravitational effects.


    Over in Quick Chat I also posted that there is a concurrent rise in volcanic activity. Two are erupting right now in Japan. One has begun erupting in Indonesia. Two more on the other side of the Pacific, have begun erupting in Guatemala.


    Several volcanoes in eastern Russia have begun erupting, too:



    Hawaii's Mt. Kilauea is erupting five times the normal lava, and throwing out 25 times normal sulfer dioxide.



    Here is a site that lists recent earthquakes worldwide, greater than 2.5 magnitude. Notice three of 6.0 magnitude or greater along the Japan coast have occured today alone:



    What's alarming is the suggestion that the aftershocks are generally moving south, toward Tokyo.


    Let us not forget, we just had a doozy in Christ Church, New Zealand.


    To me, all these recent earthquakes and eruptions is getting a little beyond mere coincidence.


    15 Mar 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, there is no doubt that we're seeing more and more spectacular posturing by Mother Earth. At a time when we've just seen the 5th largest earthquake in recorded history, it's pretty darned easy to attribute it to the supermoon phenomenon. But I don't think it is. This will be the 50th supermoon event since year 2000.


    True, this time the moon will come the closest to the earth than in the past 18 years, but that just means that 18 years ago the moon came closer than it will this time. But according to NASA, the actual percentage of change in the moon's orbit is really very minimal and that the entire notion that the supermoon is causing the earth to react with the Japan quake is silly... although Richard Nolle, the man who coined the word "supermoon" claims otherwise. I want to believe NASA:


    You're right... we haven't forgotten New Zealand nor the fact that as we speak a volcano is also erupting on Japan's south island right near 3 cities. But I've chosen to believe it's a natural cycle, 'perhaps' assisted with the increase in the tidal forces between the moon and terra firma. And that it'll pass. And that I'll take you out for a spin in my new boat in 5 years. Let's look forward to that! All the best good buddy.
    15 Mar 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Absolutely concur, Rocks. The subtle differences in gravitational effect should not alter nature's natural course.


    However, I stand on the fence on this one. Highly doubt the Super Moon is the cause, but as you wrote, it may be assisting, or exacerbating what's occurring. Too many simultaneous geological happenstances to outright void this idea from possibility.
    15 Mar 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah... it's flat out spooky no matter how we look at it though, yes?
    15 Mar 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • At the end of trading we have 78 new lows and 26 new highs. So thanks to the fact that the day was saved from total destruction DAX style, there is still a possibility that the HO will issue it's signal. It's certainly up and running fine. I'll be very honest... I'm totally relieved to be able to write this comment. Wow! I've got a headache now. Getting drowsieeee. Neeedd soommmm sleeeeeeeee............
    15 Mar 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterday (Wed.) there were 40 new 52 week lows and 32 new highs. After the frightening action we witnessed in Japan's futures and cash indexes on Monday I was afraid that the possibility of a crash occurring on the NYSE without triggering an HO signal just might be possible, for the first time ever. It appears those fears were unfounded because the numbers we're witnessing for market internals are right in the HO's wheelhouse. To clarify, the numbers of new lows and new highs are in the HO's wheelhouse. The other market internals metrics such as bullish percentages, numbers of stocks above their 50 day MAs, summation indexes ($NASI and $NYSI), McCLellan oscillators (market breadth) have been getting totally decimated since their top in late Feb. In fact, the number of stocks above their own 50 day MA peaked at 94% in Oct. with another lower peak in Jan. (87%)


    As of the close yesterday, the number of stocks above their 50 day MA on the NAS stood at an extremely bearish 24%. This is a market whose internals as judged by simply adding and subtracting (nothing subjective about it) are nothing short of decimated. In the past 9 days the markets have dropped pretty much straight down without a correction upward. With that kind of relentless pressure, in either direction, the HO is less likely to trigger. But with any kind of bounce, the odds of seeing an HO signal increase. Perhaps with opex happening tomorrow the manipulators will jack the market up to ensure they pocket as many put options as possible? I'd say that's most likely... when have they "not" done that? If I didn't know better, I'd think that sort of thing would fall under the category of illegal market manipulation. But the fact is that it "isn't" illegal because Goldman Sachs ensures that as far as the SEC can tell, the practice doesn't occur at all. So... the theft continues unabated.


    In any case, in this atmosphere where we're likely to witness a bounce in the markets after a nasty first leg down... that's when we're most likely to see the HO signal, regardless of the reason for the bounce. So stay tuned. I expect the odds are very high that we'll see a signal within a week. It could be as early as today although at the moment I have no reason to expect it... we just have to wait to see how the day unfolds.
    17 Mar 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks AR.
    17 Mar 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • My pleasure Topguns. At the moment we've got a horse race going on and they're neck and neck. 36 and 36. If nothing else, this fact alone shows that 36 horses are pulling this market south and 36 and pulling it north. At the very least, this is just a further good indication that the market is very stressed. There's not a single thing bullish about it right now.
    17 Mar 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • It ended up today with 42 new lows and 46 new highs. Getting closer each day.
    17 Mar 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • With half the trading day behind us:


    New lows 45
    New highs 53


    Approximately 80 of each would be required. I'm only pointing out that recently the HO has been getting closer and closer to ringing the bell with each passing day. That doesn't mean it's going to be tripped, but just that the market is getting more and more stressed as we move forward. Maybe something wonderful could happen and all will be well.
    18 Mar 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • At the end of the day the minimum number of new highs and lows required was 83 for each. It ended up being 52 lows and 61 highs. It's creeping closer with each passing day. That doesn't mean a signal has to happen, just that the market is showing signs of increasing stress. Have a great weekend.
    18 Mar 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • A new insta on the topic of monitoring the Hindenburg Omen has been started:


    As could be expected, it is now showing signs that a signal may be in the offing at some point over the next few sessions.
    12 Apr 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
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