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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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  • The Revulsion For Stocks 5 comments
    Feb 11, 2013 4:00 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ

    An interesting graphic from the reveals why we may not be at a top for stocks:

    The minimum in sentiment in 2012 implies that there may be between six months and more than a year before the stock market peaks.

    That is certainly not the way it feels to me, but I have not sold much up to now.

    From the viewpoint that the market will make the maximum number of investors into fools, it would be appropriate for a further rise above the peaks of 2000 and 2007 should be achieved, the pundits all declare the 13-year (plus) bear market to be over, and only then have a significant market decline after suckering in all the last hold-outs.

    But you are just reading the thoughts of an insufferable cynic.

    Added note: I am not suggesting that the Nasdaq peak in 2000 will be taken out before a decline, just all the other (non-tech bubble) indexes.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: bear market, bull market Stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ
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Comments (5)
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  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Unprecedented trillions from the Fed has skewed historical data IMO. Without links, my understanding is (was) there's heavy bullishness going on currently.....and the Vix reflecting complacency.
    11 Feb 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Heinz Doofenshmirtz
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I had to scratch my head for a moment about the bearish consensus, too.

     

    Perhaps what he is getting at is the view of here comes "The Great Rotation"/"Amatuer Hour" among the "Pros".
    11 Feb 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • SeekingTruth
    , contributor
    Comments (1173) | Send Message
     
    John,
    What is your current assessment of the LIBOR fiasco?
    I call it the Lieborig rate.
    We are getting a lot of "SLIBO" on it - -
    (Stonewall Let It Blow Over).
    We are fools to let this go uncorrected with only token fines on the crooks that practice it because it can only grow and escalate into something worse similar to addicts moving up from marijuana to cocaine except that the greater problem is that we are all adversely effected by this unacceptable and criminal manipulation of interest rates - not just the drug addict alone.
    All we are getting from the TV press and the authorities is
    "No Big Deal".
    I have more outrage than I can put to this page!
    How about you?
    How can anyone have an ounce of faith in the markets , no matter what level they happen to be at any given time.
    I heard on TV today that it doesn't matter if the markets are rigged because if you know "how" they are rigged you can watch and adjust for it.

     

    How sweet and simple they make that sound!

     

    The small investor will never know all the ways that the markets are rigged (as in the LIBOR scandal) which only the major insiders and scant few others knew much about for years, and more than that, even what little we do know or strongly suspect should scare the bejeebers out of anyone who cares to take notice.
    I think that the risk of disaster grows greater every day that passes because of the overreach and misjudgment of crooks who have been granted the leeway and freedom to do just about anything they choose to do because they know there are insufficient laws against their malfeasance or the law will be ignored and not enforced in the few cases where law actually exists.
    To depict what is going on, a sign above the Capitol building would read:

     

    "Licenses To Steal Issued Here".
    19 Feb 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    ditto Seeking

     

    Complacency of regulators..from John's blog Global Econintersect;
    http://bit.ly/YGwiMy
    20 Feb 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3972) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SeekingTruth - - -

     

    I really haven't tried to analyze just what all the major impacts from the LIBOR scandal will be. I believe we will find out some of them through civil action for attempted recovery for those who issue bonds at too high a rate, at other times from those that bought bonds issued at too low a rate, etc.

     

    Criminal prosecution would be preferable because most civil cases will probably settle without significant disclosure of facts. A criminal trial forces all the evidence into the light of day.
    21 Feb 2013, 01:43 AM Reply Like
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