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The Hindenburg Omen

Note:  The comment stream for this post has become very long and awkward for readers to interact with.  This article has been reposted (here) where comments may be continued.  Reader Albertarocks has been following the parameters of the Hindenburg Omen and posting his observations.  If he does more of that, I expect he will continue at the new post (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/34251-the-hindenburg-omen-extended ).

I have found this an intriguing metric over the years.  Michael Eckert has an article this weekend summarizing The Hindenburg Omen here, at EWTrends and Charts.com.  In June 2004, Robert McHugh wrote a more extensive article at The Market Oracle (here).

This market signal has preceeded all 11 declines of 10% or more since 1986.  It has also preceded 15 declines of less than 10%.  It has never occurred without a market decline occurring within four months.  There are times when the market has advanced significantly for a short time before falling.  The time preceding the 1987 crash was one example.

Michael Eckert maintains a large library of public charts at StockCharts.com (here), including the Hindenburg Omen charts on page 3.

Hat tip to Phil's Stock World (here).