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John B. Lounsbury Ph.D., CFP is a financial planner and investment advisor in Clayton, NC.
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  • Breaking News: Chinese Real Estate Crash 12 comments
    Nov 9, 2009 07:07 PM
    Mike Shedlock (Mish) has this breaking news (here) about a Chinese real estate crash.

    Hat tip to Phil's Stock World (here).
    Themes: chinese crash
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This post has 12 comments:

  •  
    Ha so that's breaking news in MISH's time scale? That actually happened 3 or 4 months ago. If 3 months old news is breaking news, I don't know what you call news that just happened an hour ago.
    Nov 09 07:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Funny, John. We're on exactly the same page but opposite sides! The title of your blog startled me, as I was just posting this in OptionsGirl's chat.

    I've been tracking Xinyuan Real Estate for some time, wondering when to buy some shares. They just filed a nice report. Always skeptical of their accounting, though. YOY same quarter, revenues up nearly 50%.

    Here's a link about (XIN) hot off the wire:

    app.quotemedia.com/str...;;topic=XIN
    Nov 09 07:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    LOL, good one John!

    "Breaking" news about a real estate "crash".

    It happend back in June, looks like:

    www.ask.com/bar?q=chin...
    Nov 09 10:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mark Anthony - - -

    I guess it is a long grape vine from China.


    On Nov 09 07:14 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

    > Ha so that's breaking news in MISH's time scale? That actually happened
    > 3 or 4 months ago. If 3 months old news is breaking news, I don't
    > know what you call news that just happened an hour ago.
    Nov 09 11:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    tripleback - - -

    Well, it was news to me. You guys could have clued me in.


    On Nov 09 11:38 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

    > Mark Anthony - - -
    >
    > I guess it is a long grape vine from China.
    Nov 09 11:40 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yeah at the time I was really amazed. The whole 12 story building is still in one piece and there were hardly any cracks. How many times do you see a 12 story building fall down yet remains one piece. If there were residents inside and they were wearing safety belts as they lie on beds, they would be just fine, although I wouldn't try it at home :-) Amazing rigidity of Chinese engineering technology, isn't it? :-)

    But maybe the building remained one whole piece only because the ground is simply too soft. There is a saying you can not build a mansion on beach sands. Shanghai, the whole place is basic a giant ocean beach. The whole place is simply not suitable for any high raise building. I don't know how deep you have to go to reach rock layers? A kilometer? One mile? Even if you can reach the rocky layer, consider the depth, the fundation would still be shacky, if you just think about the geometry.
    Nov 10 12:18 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think that's how China creates real estate demand. Build it up; let it fall. Well, it keeps people working. It keeps people from rioting.
    Nov 10 01:13 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sorry, John. I have a fascination for architectural failures (fatal attraction, as it were), otherwise I would never have heard of it either. First time I saw the pic, I thought it was from an earthquake.


    On Nov 09 11:40 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

    > tripleback - - -
    >
    > Well, it was news to me. You guys could have clued me in.
    Nov 10 07:32 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    One 9.2 and there might be a domino effect someday.
    Nov 10 07:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Reading the explanation makes me wonder if they had had a lot of rain prior to the fall. The pressures, as described, would have been greatly intensified due to the hydraulics from the water-soaked soil. But, none the less, very interesting.
    Nov 10 08:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Note the proximity to the canal/river. Note the high water mark (appears to be very full and deep). I would NOT be purchasing a condo in that development, even had one of the buildings not gone horizontal.
    Nov 10 09:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I especially like the hollow pilings. Reminds me of the bad ol days in Kunsan South Korea. The difference between the buildings the Korean contractors built for Uncle Sugar on the base and the crap they were erecting in town was really stark.
    Nov 10 05:14 PM | Link | Reply
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