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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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John B Lounsbury CFP
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Global Economic Intersection
  • Chart of the Day: REIT Index 2 comments
    Jan 22, 2010 11:18 AM | about stocks: ICF, IYR, RWR, VNQ, URE, SRS

    A great example of trading channels is displayed in the following graph from http://www.chartoftheday.com :


    I wanted to post this for more than the classic channeling.  The most recent data shows a dip below the current support level defined in the chart.  Does this indicate that the REIT Index will start to feel the effects of the CRE (commercial real estate) crisis?

    I am expecting the current up channel to become the shortest in duration on this chart.  The Reit index should decline for the rest of 2010.  Anyone who agrees with me should be selling real estate ETFs such as  ICF, IYR, RWR, VNQ and URE.  For those who want to short this sector, any of the above can be sold short, or SRS can be bought.

    Disclosure: No positions.

    Stocks: ICF, IYR, RWR, VNQ, URE, SRS
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Comments (2)
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  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6633) | Send Message
     
    John - I've been watching SRS for a while now waiting for a good entry point. This may be the best I'll get. Thanks!
    22 Jan 2010, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    Nice chart selection, John. I can imagine a repeat of the 2007-08 downturn, though I expect it will again be of shorter duration, then shift to a deeper tunnel (about 6 months from now).

     

    Very timely insight, thanks as always!
    22 Jan 2010, 01:17 PM Reply Like
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