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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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Global Economic Intersection
  • Non-Farms Payrolls: 12 Year Depression 4 comments
    Jul 6, 2012 3:12 PM

    A great graphic from http://www.chartoftheday.com/ shows how employment is in a long-term funk.

    The last peak in NFP data occurred in 2000 and the recovery as of June 2012 is still not complete. The regression line is approximately 1.4% growth per year, which is very close to 150% of the rate of population growth 2000-2012 (0.91% average for the 12 years, author's calculations from U.S. Census data).

    The lower graph thus overstates the depth of the employment depression. A more correct calculation would normalize to population (either total U.S. or working age).

    I will try to do some deeper analysis over the weekend.

    Themes: employment, unemployment, depression, employment depression
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  •  
    Hi, John:

    Nice to read you again. Corresponds with my scenario: Deflation Cycle runs from 2001-2019.

    Is recent rally toast? Can't rally unless we squash the US Dollar.

    http://bit.ly/PumBSN

    Hope you are well.
    MJC

    My new image above is of Charon who ferries the living through the Underworld and gets them to the shores of the Next World. 2001: Fruit-Time; Harvest. 2019: Seed-Time in the Earth, sprouting.

    2028: Dawn, Day-Cycle; 2037: Noon; Fruit-Time, Harvest. 2046: Dusk: END OF DAWN TO DUSK DAY-CYLE.
    7 Jul 2012, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Hi Michael - - -

    Have you been reading any at Global economic Intersection?

    We would enjoy having you leave a comment over there every once in a while.

    http://bit.ly/sAZYU8

    By the way, we have restructured our architecture so that even our front page with dozens of graphics loads very quickly.

    Good to get this note from you.
    7 Jul 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Look at the structure of the economy after the year 2000. The current account deficit exploded. We have never experienced anything like this. During the recessions of 1982 and 1992 our trade deficit was under 1% of GDP. In 1982 China was a complete non factor. Totally irrelevant to the American worker. This is the first downturn we have experienced with a trade deficit running over 5% of GDP. We have moved so much economic activity overseas there is now not enough here at home to pull us up and out of this rut. To make matters worse we have a declining financial sector. Credit expansion used to mask the ill effects of the trade deficit. This is no longer the case. The economy will not work again until we decide to produce what we consume. The ecosystem of the U.S. economy is in a permanent state of disrepair until trade is fixed.
    7 Jul 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Ames - - -

    Yes, a lot has changed. That's why we must be adaptive. We have had other economic pits in our past (1837-43), the Gilded Age (late eighteenth century) and the Great Depression. We adapted and moved on, although the WW II boost adaptation is not the one to mimic now.
    7 Jul 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
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