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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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Global Economic Intersection
  • There Are Still Bears in the U.S., As Well 1 comment
    Jun 15, 2009 1:37 PM

    Martin Hutchinson, writing today in Money Morning, presents a detailed argument that the current rally has been in the context of a secular bear market, which has yet to reach its ultimate bottom.

    Hutchinson believes that valuations for stocks are far too high based on economic realities and compared to previous secular bear markets.  He is less than optimistic that recovery can produce an earnings recovery to support current price levels.

    One paragraph expresses the essence of his position:

    "The most likely scenario for the United States is a recession, or near-recession, that lasts for a decade with the economy unsuccessfully struggling against the twin problems of surging inflation and a budget deficit that crowds out private capital investment. Either real interest rates will be high to combat inflation or inflation will rage out of control."

    This is another article that is worth reading in its entirety.

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  • Market Sniper
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    This has been my argument since the first cracks appeared in August of 2007. I believe history shows us that the most likely outcome will by a near hyper inflation. That is normally how this has been handled. I see no evidence, as yet, that we are headed in any other direction.
    15 Jun 2009, 06:31 PM Reply Like
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