Rabish's  Instablog

Send Message
Author has a bachelors degree in computer science and passed Uniform Investment Adviser Law exam (Series 65). All the investment and finance related knowledge (or lack of it) that the author has gained over the years is self taught. Don't be fooled by that. Like everybody else in the field, the... More
  • Monkey Throwing Darts On WSJ 2 comments
    Nov 28, 2013 4:23 PM | about stocks: HPQ, CSCO, TRLG, INTC, MDT, NOC, WBA, ORCL, BMC, POOL, ENR, JCOM, CI, AAPL, BBBY

    Monkey Throwing Darts On WSJ

    I wrote my first article at Seeking Alpha on July 17th, 2012. Since then, I've written 13 articles, each one of those with "long" theme on one or more stocks although this year I've written only one. That doesn't mean I have been totally out of touch. I was little busy (read lazy) in outlining my ideas although I was still doing my research, still investing and still trying to refine my skills, for whatever its worth.

    Anyway as an investor, the first rules I try to follow are the two rules stated by the Oracle of Omaha:

    1. Never loose money and

    2. Never forget the rule number one.

    These are easier said than done and I am not experienced, skilled or articulate enough to summarize what all it takes to do this on a consistent basis. One thing it definitely takes is a lot of hard work. Is it really worth? May be or may be not. I don't want to get into any philosophical debate. As for me, I like to do this hard work and when it pays off, it makes me happy and proud. So I wanted to check how the stocks I suggested as good long bets have performed since I wrote about them. Here it is:

    7/17/2012 Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) 18.21 27.36 50.25%
    7/25/2012 Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) 14.86 21.27 43.14%
    10/3/2012 True Religion Apparel, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRLG) 20.23 31.98 58.08%
    10/24/2012 Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) 20.43 23.9 16.98%
    11/9/2012 Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT) 40.25 57.45 42.73%
    11/9/2012 Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) 63.6 113.95 79.17%
    11/9/2012 Walgreen Company (WAG) 31.89 59.21 85.67%
    11/14/2012 Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) 29.2 35.29 20.86%
    11/18/2012 BMC Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:BMC) 38.73 46.3 19.55%
    11/18/2012 Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) 39.24 56.46 43.88%
    11/18/2012 Energizer Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ENR) 73.49 110.61 50.51%
    11/18/2012 J2 Global Inc (NASDAQ:JCOM) 28.14 48.43 72.10%
    11/18/2012 CIGNA Corporation (NYSE:CI) 50.44 88.02 74.50%
    12/17/2012 Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) 506.12 545.96 7.87%
    1/3/2013 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY) 56.62 78.3 38.29%

    **: Went private

    What makes me somewhat satisfied is:

    1. None of the stocks I wrote about are in red,
    2. Two of them (TRLG and BMC) were taken private, indicating that others also thought that there was some unlocked value in them; something Mr Market was not appreciating.

    Now, don't read too much into the numbers or make any opinions about me, one way or the other. Remember, it's all about doing well consistently over a long period of time. Looks like I've been fortunate to have performed well on both the rules above, on an absolute basis. Will I be fortunate again? I wish I knew. But I feel more confident about my process now than how I felt when I started. I consider that "some" progress.

    So maybe I was a monkey throwing the darts of the Wall Street Journal but I guess I'll take my chances in stocks as opposed to index funds. I just hope I don't become complacent or over confident and that I keep learning. As long as I'm learning and improving, I'm content.

    Best wishes for your investing, holidays and new year !

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL, ORCL.

    Additional disclosure: I have business relationship with one of the company mentioned in the article.

Back To Rabish's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • User 9162141
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    >I guess I'll take my chances in stocks as opposed to index funds.


    If you use market capitalization method to create index from your list (same method as S&P500), it's baearly matches S&P 500 performance during same interval.
    1 Dec 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Rabish
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » @User9162141: I didn't go through the trouble to create an index as you suggested although I did check the alpha (and overall it wasn't too bad). But anyone can be a genius in a market like 2013. I give you that. Best wishes for your investing.
    1 Dec 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • $AAPL is $BBRY. It's beyond its peak. Without S. Jobs it's nothing. No innovation. iPhones sales peaked. Lets talk in 2020. I am ultra-long.
    Apr 27, 2016
  • Amazing timing Bryan Nowak on $LNKD downgrade. Looking forward to your upgrade AFTER the company beats the expectation.
    Mar 16, 2016
  • $LNKD Overreaction due to unexpected forecast. Virtual monopoly in professional networking. LNKD should acquire $TWTR & Flipboard ASAP.
    Feb 21, 2016
More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.