Monkey Throwing Darts On WSJ
I wrote my first article at Seeking Alpha on July 17th, 2012. Since then, I've written 13 articles, each one of those with "long" theme on one or more stocks although this year I've written only one. That doesn't mean I have been totally out of touch. I was little busy (read lazy) in outlining my ideas although I was still doing my research, still investing and still trying to refine my skills, for whatever its worth.
Anyway as an investor, the first rules I try to follow are the two rules stated by the Oracle of Omaha:
1. Never loose money and
2. Never forget the rule number one.
These are easier said than done and I am not experienced, skilled or articulate enough to summarize what all it takes to do this on a consistent basis. One thing it definitely takes is a lot of hard work. Is it really worth? May be or may be not. I don't want to get into any philosophical debate. As for me, I like to do this hard work and when it pays off, it makes me happy and proud. So I wanted to check how the stocks I suggested as good long bets have performed since I wrote about them. Here it is:
|ARTICLE DATE||NAME||PRICE ON ARTICLE DATE||PRICE LAST||CHNAGE SINCE ARTICLE DATE|
|7/17/2012||Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)||18.21||27.36||50.25%|
|7/25/2012||Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO)||14.86||21.27||43.14%|
|10/3/2012||True Religion Apparel, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRLG)||20.23||31.98||58.08%|
|10/24/2012||Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)||20.43||23.9||16.98%|
|11/9/2012||Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT)||40.25||57.45||42.73%|
|11/9/2012||Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC)||63.6||113.95||79.17%|
|11/9/2012||Walgreen Company (WAG)||31.89||59.21||85.67%|
|11/14/2012||Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL)||29.2||35.29||20.86%|
|11/18/2012||BMC Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:BMC)||38.73||46.3||19.55%|
|11/18/2012||Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL)||39.24||56.46||43.88%|
|11/18/2012||Energizer Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ENR)||73.49||110.61||50.51%|
|11/18/2012||J2 Global Inc (NASDAQ:JCOM)||28.14||48.43||72.10%|
|11/18/2012||CIGNA Corporation (NYSE:CI)||50.44||88.02||74.50%|
|12/17/2012||Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)||506.12||545.96||7.87%|
|1/3/2013||Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY)||56.62||78.3||38.29%|
**: Went private
What makes me somewhat satisfied is:
- None of the stocks I wrote about are in red,
- Two of them (TRLG and BMC) were taken private, indicating that others also thought that there was some unlocked value in them; something Mr Market was not appreciating.
Now, don't read too much into the numbers or make any opinions about me, one way or the other. Remember, it's all about doing well consistently over a long period of time. Looks like I've been fortunate to have performed well on both the rules above, on an absolute basis. Will I be fortunate again? I wish I knew. But I feel more confident about my process now than how I felt when I started. I consider that "some" progress.
So maybe I was a monkey throwing the darts of the Wall Street Journal but I guess I'll take my chances in stocks as opposed to index funds. I just hope I don't become complacent or over confident and that I keep learning. As long as I'm learning and improving, I'm content.
Best wishes for your investing, holidays and new year !
Additional disclosure: I have business relationship with one of the company mentioned in the article.