Seeking Alpha

cumbara's  Instablog

cumbara
Send Message
Bachelors in Economics & Corporate Finance Msc in Economics Msc in Marketing Worked as trader in bank Independent researcher and financial advisor (recently) My aim is to explain global financial news daily with regards to commodities, European, Asian and ABD stocks ( mainly blue chips) as... More
  • Recession Bells 2 comments
    Aug 5, 2011 2:46 AM | about stocks: ASIA
    Europe

    ECB President   gives signals to buy bonds if necessary. Unexpected moves can be observed in the next decision as the global recession fears persist. After Greece, Italy can be on the scene for long days as well as Ireland. These countries have also helped Greece Rescue Plan; meanwhile, dealing with their potential weak economy with high debt to GDP ratios. Financials in European Stocks Markets are possibly in the red line in case of a sudden fall. Besides, Insurance companies may be risky because of financial risks of banks.

    Oil

    As recession fears spreading in US and Europe, oil is questioned for investors with growth concerns all over the world. Possible second crisis signals explain that oil demand  will decline as economies are in danger of recession. Oil was down almost 6 % as a result of this risk. It seems that its consumption may slow down for the upcoming days unless the risks cool in the market.

    Financials

    BAC -7.4%

    JPM - 5%

    GS - 4.4%

    MS, and AIG have declined more than 6%. As the recession news appears, financial may experience more declines in the market. There were alerts about the risks around banks, insurance companies which were discussed in the light of European debt concerns first. As bad news also come from U.S, it will be inevitable to see down movements in financials and related sectors.

    Asian Stocks decline

    Global recession fears also pushed stocks downward, especially, energy firms, and financials;

    Financials

    NIK - 3.4%

    MAUSF -5.1%

    NMR -5.4%

    MQBKY.PK -8.2%

    Energy

    IPXHY.PK -6.3% JXHGF -5%

    CEO - 6.5%

    PTR -4.3%

    In the case of recession concerns, central banks as well as big investors think about investing in Gold similar to last crisis movements as there is a belief that it will rise further. Yield curves starts to seem strange like in recessions. Longer term interest rates are lower than short terms as investors think a slowdown in the global economy which will push yields down further. On the other hand, emerging markets may be an alternative to invest if there is a crisis stemming from developed economies. However, this time there will be more financial contagions all over the world as it is different from Mortgage crisis. Now, debt issues, banks portfolios as well as insurance companies, foreign exchange policies globally effect as we see it for European debt issues; Greece, U.S debt issues as well. The pre market conditions of subprime mortgage crisis had not released to the other economies suddenly as it was a problem in the country first. However, now the problem has already expanded through the world. Then, the winners in emerging stocks market may not get big earnings this time as risks will probably affect this market daily more than the ex-crisis.



















    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Stocks: ASIA
Back To cumbara's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • metinyazar
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    " the winners in emerging stocks market may not get big earnings this time"
    tekrar düşünün derim
    5 Aug 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • MsEconometrica
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    metinyazar: ,Türkiyedeki bankacılık sektörüne bakarsan ( 2011 karları) arkadaşımızın ne demeye calıstığını anlarsınız. 2008 2009 yıllarında hazine bonolarından fonlardan kar eden bankaların 2011 de nasıl zorlandığını ve kar marjlarının düşecegını goreceksiniz. Yazılan yazı tam bu noktayı vurgulamış...bu noktada hangi sektor ne zaman nasıl soruları daha yerinde olabilirdi bu soruya dair. Mesela benim çıkarımım bu sektorlerden sadece biri
    17 Aug 2011, 06:56 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.