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I occasionally perform research when weighing investment decisions. I share some of this research here. This is not personal financial advice. I don't know your individual circumstances or risk tolerance. Also, nothing I publish is a guarantee. I cannot tell the future and so I will often be... More
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  • Value Research Disclaimer 0 comments
    Jan 24, 2012 1:50 AM

    General Disclaimer
    Articles are written to provide investor information and education, and should not be construed as a guarantee or investment advice. I have no idea what your individual risk, time-horizon, and tax circumstances are: please seek the personal advice of a financial planner. This article uses third-party data and may contain approximations and errors. Please check estimates and data for yourself before investing. I repeat: this research does NOT constitute a guarantee.

    Disclaimer Regarding Altman Z-score Calculations
    The Altman Z-Score is a measure of bankruptcy risk that is not based on stock price volatility. This score places companies into three groups: "safe" (Z-score > 2.99), "grey" (Z-score between 2.99 and 1.81), and "distressed" (Z-score < 1.81), and is surprisingly useful for identifying bankruptcy risk in the coming year. This method of segmenting companies uses of fundamental (financial statement) data and market capitalization only, not on price volatility. Beyond credit risk prediction, companies with higher Z-scores have historically outperformed companies with lower Z-scores, in aggregate. One sector has not been accurately modeled: Altman's Z-score has not accurately predicted the bankruptcy risk of financial companies.

    "Distressed" was a label coined by researchers, and should not be taken to mean that any company is bankrupt or in default on the basis of this calculation alone. Credit scoring is not fate, only prediction based on relative past performance of companies grouped by key variables. Time will tell.

    Volatility has be incorporated into a credit scoring to improve accuracy and extend it to financial companies, but this would reduce the value of a fundamentals-only model for indicating attractively-priced put options.
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