The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note held my weekly pivot at 2.836% on Monday with the 200-week simple moving average at 2.543%, as the rise in yield is overdone on its weekly chart. The primary catalyst was the 8:30 AM release of Durable Goods Orders for July, which showed a much weaker than expected decline of 7.3%, when economists projected a decline of 4%.
The strong rebound in the price of gold continued on Monday with a print above $1400 the Troy ounce for the first time since June 7. The daily chart shows that gold is overbought, but the weekly chart remains positive with the 200-week simple moving average at $1470.4.
The weekly chart for crude oil is overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $104.77 per barrel. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $90.31 with my semiannual risky level at $109.84.
On Tuesday the Conference Board releases it reading on Consumer Confidence for August and the consensus calls for steady print at 80.0. Given last Friday's disappointing new home sales and Monday's weak durable goods orders I would not be surprised by a weaker than expected confidence report. Keep in mind that the 90 to 110 is the neutral zone for this data release.
10-Year Note - (2.793) Daily and semiannual value levels are 2.950 and 3.227 with a weekly pivot at 2.836, and monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.
Comex Gold - ($1401.5) My monthly value level is $1229.7 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1413.6, $1416.8, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil - ($106.28) My quarterly value level is $91.75 with monthly and daily pivots at $104.48 and $105.03, and semiannual, annual and weekly risky levels at $109.84, $115.23 and $115.85.
The Euro - (1.3369) Monthly, annual, semiannual and quarterly value levels are 1.3313, 1.3257, 1.2477 and 1.1545 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3449, 1.3436 and 1.4295.
In the equity markets the Dow Industrial Average continues to have a negative weekly chart profile with the five-week MMA at 15,248. The S&P 500 shows declining momentum and a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 1666.4 gives this average a negative weekly chart profile. The Nasdaq continues to be positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 3591 and the August 5 multi-year high in reach at 3694.18. The Dow Transportation Average is neutral with declining weekly momentum and the index above its five-week MMA at 6437. The Russell 2000 has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile with the five-week MMA at 1028.55 and the August 5 all time high at 1063.52.
The Nasdaq traded on both sides of my monthly pivot at 3663 on Monday. My quarterly and annual value levels at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My semiannual risky levels are 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000.
Dow Industrials: 11 stocks are buy-rated, 18 are hold-rated and one is sell-rated.
S&P 500: five are rated strong buy, 133 are buy-rated, 44 are sell-rated and two are rated strong sell.
Nasdaq 100: one is rated strong buy, 28 are buy-rated and five are sell-rated.
Dow Transports: four are hold-rated and 13 are sell-rated.
Daily Dow: (14,946) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,656, 14,288 and 12,696 with the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,732, 16,188 and 16,490.
S&P 500 - (1656.8) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1624.0, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1744.8, 1742.5 and 1743.5.
NASDAQ - (3658) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3580, 3284 and 2806 with a monthly pivot at 3663, the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and semiannual and weekly risky levels at 3759 and 3830.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3123) Monthly, daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3080, 3058, 2983 and 2463 with the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 3257 and 3304.
Dow Transports - (6479) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 6419, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 6771, 7087 and 7104.
Russell 2000 - (1038.47) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1011.46, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1092.24 and 1089.42.
The SOX - (462.92) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 452.31, 404.59 and 338.03 with weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 480.52, 513.89 and 533.56.
Dow Utilities: (479.26) A daily value level is 467.50 with a semiannual pivot at 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 501.80, 510.38, 523.33, 530.15 and 540.37.
On Monday I posted two stories on TheStreet.com and here are the links:
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