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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • The Nasdaq Is Just Below Its Five-Week MMA At 3591 With Overbought Mojo. 0 comments
    Aug 31, 2013 8:07 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note seems to have set a trading range from 2.936% down to 2.703%. The weekly chart continues to show that the rise in yields is overdone with the 200-week SMA at 2.543%. A 'flight to quality' on the Syrian situation is being offset by the possibility that QE3 and QE4 will soon be tampered.

    We come back to the markets after Labor Day on Tuesday with an eye on the events in Syria and on the economic front at home. The national ISM index for August should be stable at 54.0 with and unchanged construction spending for July. We get to read the next Fed Beige Book on Wednesday. On Thursday, the focus is Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and Nonmanufacturing ISM. Then on Friday it's the Employment report for August. Nonfarm Payrolls should rise by 190,000 with the Unemployment Rate dipping to 7.3%.

    The strong rebound in the price of gold last week was to a high of $1434.0 the Troy ounce overnight into Wednesday. Gold wound up the week below $1400 as the daily chart remains overbought with the 50-day SMA at $1311.0 and the 200-day at $1505.2. The weekly chart remains positive with the 200-week simple moving average at $1470.4.

    The weekly chart for crude oil is overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $105.15 per barrel. Oil traded as high as $112.24 last week but closes stayed below my semiannual pivot at $109.84. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $90.32.

    10-Year Note - (2.777) My semiannual value level is 3.227 with daily and monthly pivots at 2.775 and 2.725, and weekly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.625, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.

    Comex Gold - ($1394.7) My monthly value level is $1224.6 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1421.4, $1466.4, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($107.72) My quarterly value level is $91.75 with a monthly pivot at $105.67 and daily, semiannual, weekly and annual risky levels at $109.06, $109.84, $110.32 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3217) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with annual and daily pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3212 and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3673 and 1.4295.

    All five major averages ended last week below their five-week modified moving averages at 15,161 Dow Industrials, 1659.7 S&P 500, 3591 Nasdaq, 6400 Dow Transports and 1025.03 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq closed Friday only one point below its five-week MMA, which makes it the most important index to track as September begins. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 still have overbought weekly momentum, so these averages are neutral, not negative.

    To confirm the early-August highs as cycle highs all five major averages must have negative weekly chart profiles. The Nasdaq needs to end this week below 3591 with mojo below 80.00 and the current reading is 86.65. The Russell 2000 has a mojo reading of 81.85.

    This week's risky levels are 15,389 Dow Industrials, 1712.6 S&P 500, 3763 Nasdaq, 6595 Dow Transports and 1067.52 Russell 2000. My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My monthly and semiannual risky levels are 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 3772 / 3759 Nasdaq, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000.

    The Dow Industrial Average has a negative but oversold daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 14,434 and the 50-day SMA at 15,239. The S&P 500 also has a negative but oversold daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 1562.18 and the 50-day SMA at 1660.58. The Nasdaq has a neutral daily chart profile with the 50-day SMA at 3571.99 and the 200-day SMA at 3299.12. The Dow Transportation Average has a negative daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 6002 and the 50-day SMA at 6392. The Russell 2000 has a negative daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 940.52 and the 50-day SMA at 1026.48.

    Daily Dow: (14,810) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,748, 14,288 and 12,696 with the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,389, 16,336 and 16,490.

    S&P 500 - (1633.0) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a daily pivot at 1634.2, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1712.6, 1766.8 and 1743.5.

    NASDAQ - (3590) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3284 and 2806 with a daily pivot at 3614, the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3763, 3772 and 3759.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3074) Quarterly and annual value levels are 2983 and 2463 with a daily risky level at 3094, the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3216, 3185 and 3304.

    Dow Transports - (6250) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5925, 5469 and 5348 with daily and weekly risky levels at 6329 and 6595, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.

    Russell 2000 - (1010.9) Quarterly and annual value levels are 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily risky level at 1018.81, the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1067.52, 1093.07 and 1089.42.

    The SOX - (457.70) Quarterly and annual value levels are 404.59 and 338.03 with a daily pivot at 456.82, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 467.37, 516.08 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (477.87) No nearby value levels with daily and semiannual pivots at 476.89 and 481.92 and weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 509.84, 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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