The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to 2.908% on Wednesday approaching the high end of the trading range at 2.936% set on August 22. The weekly chart continues to show that the rise in yields is overdone with the 200-week SMA at 2.540%. The latest Fed Beige Book released on Wednesday showed enough signs of a strengthening economy to justify an early tapering of QE3 and QE4, which should begin before Ben Bernanke's term as Fed Chief ends in January.
The economic focus for Thursday and Friday remain; Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and Nonmanufacturing ISM on Thursday, then Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate on Friday.
The rebound in the price of gold stalled on Wednesday as gold stayed below last week's high of $1434.0 the Troy ounce. Gold is trading between its 50-day SMA at $1315.6 and the 200-day at $1501.9, as daily mojo is now declining. The weekly chart remains positive with the five-week MMA at $1359.2 and the 200-week simple moving average at $1471.9.
Crude oil continues to trade above its 50-day SMA at $104.95 on a neutral daily chart. The weekly chart remains overbought with the five-week MMA at $105.55 per barrel. Oil traded as high as $112.24 last week but closes stayed below my semiannual pivot at $109.84. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $90.47.
10-Year Note - (2.898) My semiannual value level is 3.227 with daily, monthly, weekly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.722, 2.725, 2.625, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.
Comex Gold - ($1392.8) My monthly value level is $1224.6 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1432.3, $1466.4, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil - ($107.29) Monthly and quarterly value levels are $105.67 and $91.75 with daily, semiannual, weekly and annual risky levels at $110.42, $109.84, $110.32 and $115.23.
The Euro - (1.3207) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with annual and daily pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3203 and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3673 and 1.4295.
To become bearish all five major equity averages need to end the week below their five-week MMAs at 15,161 Dow Industrials, 1659.7 S&P 500, 3594 Nasdaq, 6400 Dow Transports and 1025.03 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq is the only one of the five with overbought weekly momentum.
To confirm the early-August highs as cycle highs all five major averages must have negative weekly chart profiles. The Nasdaq needs to end this week below 3594 with mojo below 80.00 and the current reading is 86.20.
This week's risky levels are 15,389 Dow Industrials, 1712.6 S&P 500, 3763 Nasdaq, 6595 Dow Transports and 1067.52 Russell 2000. My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My monthly and semiannual risky levels are 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 3772 / 3759 Nasdaq, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000.
The Dow Industrial Average has a negative but oversold daily chart with the 200-day SMA at 14,457and the 50-day SMA at 15,245. The S&P 500 also has a neutral daily chart with the 200-day SMA at 1565.10 and the 50-day SMA at 1663.13. The Nasdaq has a positive daily chart with the 50-day SMA at 3583.66 and the 200-day SMA at 3307.01. The Dow Transportation Average has a negative daily chart with the 200-day SMA at 6016 and the 50-day SMA at 6403. The Russell 2000 has a negative daily chart with the 200-day SMA at 943.02 and the 50-day SMA at 1029.02.
Daily Dow: (14,931) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,793, 14,288 and 12,696 with the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,389, 16,336 and 16,490.
S&P 500 - (1653.1) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1632.5, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1712.6, 1766.8 and 1743.5.
NASDAQ - (3649) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3608, 3284 and 2806 with the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3763, 3772 and 3759.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3125) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3095, 2983 and 2463 with the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3216, 3185 and 3304.
Dow Transports - (6344) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 6218, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a weekly risky level at 6595, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.
Russell 2000 - (1025.58) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1010.90, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1067.52, 1093.07 and 1089.42.
The SOX - (473.56) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 461.20, 404.59 and 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 467.37, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 516.08 and 533.56.
Dow Utilities: (471.86) No nearby value levels with daily and semiannual risky levels at 475.17 and 481.92 and weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 509.84, 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.
To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.