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Richard Suttmeier
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the... More
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  • Highs Not Confirmed, But Setting New Highs Not Confirmed Either.  0 comments
    Sep 14, 2013 12:02 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The weekly chart for the yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note shows that the rise in yields is overdone after setting a 2013 high at 3.007% on September 6 high with the 200-week simple moving average at 2.538%. The weekly chart for the yield on the 30-Year bond also shows that the rise in yields is overdone. For the 30-Year, the 2013 high yield is 3.940% set on August 22 with the 200-week SMA at 3.646%.

    Gold declined to a week's low at $1304.6 the Troy ounce on Friday, but the weekly chart is neutral, not negative. Gold is below its five-week MMA at $1350.6 with the 200-week SMA at $1472.9.

    Crude oil remains overbought on its weekly chart with the five-week MMA at $106.64 per barrel with my semiannual pivot at $109.84. The 200-week SMA at $90.64 has been a major support in 2013 last tested in April.

    The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral weekly chart profile with declining momentum but with the currency above its five-week MMA at 1.3240.

    10-Year Note - (2.888) Daily, weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.980, 3.045 and 3.227 with monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.725, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.

    Comex Gold - ($1324.2) Daily and monthly value levels are $1307.0 and $1224.6 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1406.2, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($108.51) Weekly, monthly and quarterly value levels are $106.43, $105.67 and $91.75 with daily and semiannual pivots at $108.27 and $109.84, and annual risky level at $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3299) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with an annual pivot at 1.3257, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3323, 1.3450 and 1.4295.

    The Nasdaq squeezed out a new multi-year high at 3731.84 on Sep. 12, which helped all five major averages to end the week above their five-week modified moving averages at 15,170 Dow Industrials, 1665.3 S&P 500, 3630 Nasdaq, 6423 Dow Transports and 1032.02 Russell 2000, which means that the early August highs at 15,658.43 Dow Industrials, 1709.67 S&P 500, 6686.86 Dow Transports and 1063.52 Russell 2000 can not be confirmed as cycle highs.

    Nasdaq gains slowed on Wednesday as Apple shares were sliced to its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $464.93 and $462.16. This prevented the Nasdaq from having a weekly close above annual and monthly risky levels at 3759 and 3772, which delays calling for new all time highs.

    My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My monthly and semiannual risky levels remain 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 3772 / 3759 Nasdaq, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000.

    This week's value levels are 14,950 Dow Industrials, 1658.2 S&P 500, 6330 Dow Transports and 1031.24 Russell 2000 with a weekly pivot at 3727 on the Nasdaq.

    The major averages are above their 50-day SMAs at 15,277 Dow Industrials, 1672.56 S&P 500, 3625 Nasdaq, 6446 Dow Transports and 1038.32 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,376) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,950, 14,724, 14,288 and 12,696 with a daily risky level at 15,483, the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,336 and 16,490.

    S&P 500 - (1688.0) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1658.2, 1606.9, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a daily risky level at 1708.6, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1766.8 and 1743.5.

    NASDAQ - (3722) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3668, 3592, 3284 and 2806 with a weekly pivot at 2727, the September 12 multi-year high at 3731.84, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3785, 3772 and 3759.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3178) Quarterly and annual value levels are 2983 and 2463 with a monthly risky level at 3185, the September 10 multi-year high at 3189.24, and weekly, daily and semiannual risky levels at 3200, 3232 and 3304.

    Dow Transports - (6523) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6330, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a daily risky level at 6683, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.

    Russell 2000 - (1053.98) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1031.24, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1072.04, 1093.07 and 1089.42.

    The SOX - (488.23) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 461.34, 404.59 and 338.03 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 504.88, 492.67, 516.08 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (476.89) My weekly value level is 468.35 with a daily pivot at 476.26, and semiannual, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 481.92, 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    "Buy and Trade Replaces Buy and Hold"
    An Evening with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier

    Florida AAII Chapter Meeting, Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 6:30PM

    University Club of Winter Park
    841 N. Park Ave.
    Winter Park, FL 32789

    FIND OUT MORE HERE

    Stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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