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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Dow and NASDAQ hold their year-to-date lows while others slip. 2 comments
    Oct 4, 2011 6:04 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, DIA, QQQ, SPY
    The Dow Industrial Average, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) hold their year-to-date lows at 10,597.14, 2331.65, 2034.92 and 325.41. Monday’s lows were new year-to-date lows on S&P 500, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 at 1098.92, 4037.35 and 609.49. Stocks are extremely cheap fundamentally with 93.5% of all stocks being undervalued. Technically the Dow Industrials are above its 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages at 10,648 and 10,606. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is still between this month’s value level at 2.222 and my annual risky level at 1.672. Gold is above my semiannual pivot at $1644.8 with semiannual value level at $1469.9 and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1738.4 and $1811.4. Oil has a negative monthly chart with the 120-month SMA at $61.85. The euro should weaken into year end to my new quarterly value level at 1.2598.
     
    10-Year Note – (1.783) Daily, monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1.885, 2.222, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with semiannual and weekly risky levels at 1.672 and 1.465. My semiannual risky level at 1.672 was tested on September 23rd.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Comex Gold – ($1655.0) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are $1505.7, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my semiannual pivot at $1644.8, and quarterly, monthly, and weekly risky levels at $1738.4, $1811.4 and $1866.8, and the September all time high at $1923.7.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Nymex Crude Oil ($76.83) My daily value level is $75.10 with a weekly pivot at $80.30 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.51, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92.
     
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    The Euro – (1.3202) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3289 and 1.3511, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4579, 1.4752 and 1.4872. The monthly chart is negative with the 120-month simple moving average at 1.2698 with the 200-week at 1.4003.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    Daily Dow - (10,655) The 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages are 10,648 and 10,606 with the year-to-date low at 10,597.14, weekly and daily pivots at 10,713 and 10,682, my annual pivot at 11,491, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468.
     
    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
     
    S&P 500 (1099.2) Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with the year-to-date low at 1098.92, weekly and daily pivots at 1116.8 and 1110.0, and annual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1210.7, 1259.8, 1303.7 and 1562.9.
     
    NASDAQ (2336) Annual, and semiannual value levels are 2335, 2199 and 2049 with the year-to-date low at 2331.65, daily and weekly pivots at 2364 and 2404, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2680, 2807 and 3243.
     
    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2085) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1951, 1861 and 1723 with the year-to-date low at 2034.92, daily and weekly pivots at 2099 and 2140, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2312, 2440 and 2590.
     
    Dow Transports (4085) Semiannual value levels are 3995, and 3868 with Monday’s new year-to-date low at 4037.35, daily and weekly pivots at 4146 and 4058, my semiannual pivot at 4335, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 4980, 5179 and 5359.
     
    Russell 2000 (644.15) Semiannual value levels are 577.47 and 530.04 with Monday’s new year-to-date low at 609.49, my daily and weekly pivots at 628.68 and 630.55, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 778.77, 784.16 and 802.96.
     
    The SOX– (326.37) Annual and semiannual value levels are, 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with the year-to-date low at 325.41, daily and weekly pivots at 331.51 and 346.91, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 346.91, 363.01 and 417.63.
     
    Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely undervalued.
    • 93.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 6.5% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009 we saw 91.1% of all stocks undervalued.
    • All sixteen sectors are undervalued by double-digit percentages, fifteen by 26.1% to 38.9%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
     
    VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D
     
    ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V
     
    ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U
     
    ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C
     
    Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
     
    Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
    • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
     
    Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
    • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
    • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
     
    Richard Suttmeier
    Chief Market Strategist
    ValuEngine.com
    (800) 381-5576
     
    To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?
     
    Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
     
    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
     
    “I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”
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Comments (2)
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  • Question on Gold: A senior official at the Bundesbank is quoted (in a Vanity Fair article," It's the economy, dummkopf!"Sept. issue) as saying "We have 3,400 tons of gold". We are the only country that has not sold its original allotment from the (late 1940's). So we are covered to some extent.") He was referring to the ECB crisis and insolvency of it's banks. If Germany were to sell some of it's gold holdings what would that do to the gold market, and is that a possibility about to happen, your opinion? thanks.
    4 Oct 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » If Germany were to sell gold it would put downward pressure on the precious metals.
    5 Oct 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
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