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Richard Suttmeier
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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • Fed Non-Taper Inflates Equity Bubbles To New All Time Highs. 0 comments
    Sep 19, 2013 10:25 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note is below its 50-day simple moving average (NYSE:SMA) at 2.719% as Fed decides not to taper its bond purchasing programs. My monthly pivot at 2.725% proves to be a magnet. The weekly chart still shows that the rise in yields is overdone. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 2.729% indicates potential to the 200-week SMA at 2.534%. The yield on the 30-Year bond is still above its 50-day SMA at 3.737% as my monthly pivot remains a magnet at 3.738%. The weekly chart for the yield on the 30-Year bond shifts to positive favoring lower yields on a close on Friday below the five-week MMA at 3.735% with the 200-week SMA at 3.643%.

    Gold traded as low as $1291.5 pre-FOMC then as high as $1375.4 this morning well above its 50-day SMA at $1339.2 the Troy ounce. The weekly chart will stay positive with a close on Friday above the five-week MMA at $1351.9.

    Crude oil ended flipped back above its 50-day SMA at $106.73 per barrel post-FOMC. The weekly chart stays positive but overbought on a Friday close above the five-week MMA at $106.93. My semiannual pivot at $109.84 remains a magnet.

    The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3273 and 1.3161 with the 200-day SMA at 1.3161. The weekly chart profile shifts to positive with a weekly close above five-week MMA at 1.3302 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3353.

    10-Year Note - (2.701) Daily, weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.775, 3.045 and 3.227 with a monthly pivot at 2.725, and annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.

    Comex Gold - ($1360.6) Daily and monthly value levels are $1300.9 and $1224.6 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1406.2, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($108.51) Weekly, monthly, daily and quarterly value levels are $106.43, $105.67, $105.41 and $91.75 with semiannual and annual risky levels at $109.84 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3529) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with weekly and daily pivots at 1.3436 and 1.3531 and annual risky level at 1.4295.

    The five major equity averages set new all time or multi-year highs following the Fed Statement that stated that it was premature to begin tapering QE3 & QE4. In my opinion all this decision does is further inflate the equity bubbles and risks re-inflating the gold bubble and oil bubble. This morning the Dow Industrial Average is trading just below yesterday's all time high at 15,709.79. The S&P 500 set a higher new all time high this morning at 1729.86. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year high at 3798.15 this morning as well. Dow Transports set another new all time high this morning at 6743.85. The Russell 2000 is just below its all time high set yesterday at 1080.49.

    If the Nasdaq ends this week above its annual and monthly pivots at 3759 and 3772 the upside is to the monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000.

    My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,677) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,950, 14,724, 14,288 and 12,696 with the Sep. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,886, 16,336 and 16,490.

    S&P 500 - (1725.5) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1658.2, 1606.9, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with the Sep. 18 all time high at 1729.44, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1738.1, 1766.8 and 1743.5.

    NASDAQ - (3784) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3727, 3668, 3592, 3284 and 2806 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 3772 and 3759, the Sep. 18 multi-year high at 3790.70, and daily risky level at 3813.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3231) Weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3200, 3185, 2983 and 2463 with the Sep. 18 multi-year high at 3235.72, and semiannual risky level at 3304.

    Dow Transports - (6706) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6330, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with the Sep. 18 all time high at 6718.35, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 6804, 7061 and 7104.

    Russell 2000 - (1076.97) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1031.24, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the Sep. 18 all time high at 1080.49, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1089.60, 1093.07 and 1089.42.

    The SOX - (497.67) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 461.34, 404.59 and 338.03 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 505.90, 516.08 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (494.12) Daily, semiannual and weekly value levels at 487.51, 481.92 and 468.35 with quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    If you want a copy of my handout from my Sep. 18 presentation "Buy and Trade Replaces Buy and Hold" An Evening with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier please send me an email at RSuttmeier@gmail.com. If you want to schedule me for a future presentation in your community let me know.

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