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ValuEngine.com ValuEngine, Inc is an independent research company, producing recommendations, forecasted target prices, and fair market valuations on over 5,500 equities trading on US exchanges (including over 700 international ADR's).. Research on each equity is updated every trading day to... More
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  • The Nasdaq Ended The Week Above Its Semiannual Pivot At 3759. 0 comments
    Sep 21, 2013 3:14 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note ended the week above its 50-day simple moving average (NYSE:SMA) at 2.723% and my monthly pivot at 2.725% remains a magnet. The weekly chart still shows that the rise in yields is overdone. The weekly close was on the cusp of its five-week modified moving average at 2.737% with the 200-week SMA at 2.535%. The yield on the 30-Year bond stayed above its 50-day SMA at 3.741% with my monthly pivot a magnet at 3.738%. The weekly chart for the yield on the 30-Year bond shows that the rise in yield is overdone with the five-week MMA at 3.738% and the 200-week SMA at 3.643%.

    Gold traded as low as $1291.5 pre-FOMC then as high as $1375.4 last Thursday then ended the week below its 50-day SMA at $1340.3 the Troy ounce. The weekly chart shifts to neutral given Friday's close below the five-week MMA at $1345.1 with the 200-week SMA at $1473.7.

    Crude oil flipped flopped back and forth above and below its 50-day SMA at $106.69 per barrel post-FOMC, but ended the week below it. The weekly chart shifts to neutral given Friday's close below its five-week MMA at $106.23 with the 200-week SMA at $90.78.

    The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3282 and 1.3162. The weekly chart profile shifts to positive with a weekly close above five-week MMA at 1.3296 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3353.

    10-Year Note - (2.739) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.977 and 3.227 with a monthly pivot at 2.725, and daily, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.676, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.

    Comex Gold - ($1325.7) Daily and monthly value levels are $1304.5 and $1224.6 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1367.3, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($104.87) My quarterly value level is $91.75 with monthly and daily pivots at $105.67 and $106.22 and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $109.33, $109.84 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3518) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with weekly and daily pivots at 1.3408 and 1.3555 and annual risky level at 1.4295.

    The Nasdaq has been the mojo leader and ended last week above monthly, semiannual and weekly pivots at 3772, 3759 and 3749 and set a new multi-year high at 3798.76 on Sep. 20. The new all time highs are 15,709.59 Dow Industrials set on Sep. 18, 1729.86 S&P 500 on Sep. 19, 6754.81 Dow Transports on Sep 20 and 1080.49 Russell 2000 on Sep. 18.

    If the Nasdaq stays above its three pivots the upside potential elsewhere is to semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000.

    This week's value levels are 14,927 Dow Industrials, 1667.5 S&P 500, 3749 Nasdaq, 6530 Dow Transports and 1042.79 Russell 2000.

    Quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,451) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,927, 14,724, 14,288 and 12,696 with the Sep. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,752, 16,336 and 16,490.

    S&P 500 - (1709.9) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1667.5, 1606.9, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with the Sep. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1722.8, 1766.8 and 1743.5.

    NASDAQ - (3775) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3749, 3668, 3592, 3284 and 2806 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 3772 and 3759, the Sep. 20 multi-year high at 3798.76, and daily pivot at 3771.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3225) Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3218, 3212, 3185, 2983 and 2463 with the Sep. 20 multi-year high at 3248.52, and semiannual risky level at 3304.

    Dow Transports - (6692) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6530, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a daily pivot at 6670, the Sep. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.

    Russell 2000 - (1072.80) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1042.79, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily pivot at 1072.79, the Sep. 18 all time high at 1080.49, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1093.07 and 1089.42.

    The SOX - (493.15) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 479.94, 404.59 and 338.03 with a daily at 493.16, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 516.08 and 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (485.33) Semiannual and weekly value levels at 481.92 and 468.35 with a daily pivot at 484.63 and quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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