The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note remains below its 50-day simple moving average (NYSE:SMA) at 2.734% as the decline in yield becomes overdone on its daily chart. The weekly chart favors lower yields with a close this week below its five-week modified moving average (MMA) at 2.720% with the 200-week SMA at 2.532%. The yield on the 30-Year bond is also below its 50-day SMA at 3.748% but does not show that the short term decline in yield is overdone yet. The weekly chart favors lower yields on a weekly close below the five-week MMA at 3.729% with the 200-week SMA at 3.640%, which was tested on Wednesday.
Gold remains below its 50-day SMA at $1343.8 the Troy ounce with this week's risky level at $1367.3. The weekly chart stays negative if Friday's close is below the five-week MMA at $1341.0 with the 200-week SMA at $1474.5.
Crude oil remains below its 50-day SMA at $106.44 as my semiannual pivot at $109.84 as a risky level. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $105.58 with my quarterly value level at $91.75 and the 200-week SMA at $90.92.
The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3312 and 1.3168 with an overbought daily chart. The weekly chart profile remains positive with a weekly close above five-week MMA at 1.3333 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3346.
10-Year Note - (2.644) Monthly, weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.725, 2.977 and 3.227 with daily, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.525, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.
Comex Gold - ($1324.2) My monthly value level is $1224.6 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1354.8, $1367.3, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil - ($102.93) My quarterly value level is $91.75 with a daily pivot at $102.69, and monthly, weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $105.67, $109.33, $109.84 and $115.23.
The Euro - (1.3482) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a weekly pivot at 1.3408 and daily and annual risky levels at 1.3641 and 1.4295.
The daily chart for the Dow Industrial Average ended Thursday back above its 50-day SMA at 15,294 with declining mojo. The S&P 500 is above its 50-day at 1680.1 with declining mojo. The Nasdaq, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 remain above its 50-day SMAs at 3663, 6489 and 1046.30 with overbought mojo on Nasdaq and Russell, but declining on Dow Transports.
The weekly charts stay positive with weekly closes above the five-week MMAs at 15,237 Dow Industrials, 1677.93 S&P 500, 36782 Nasdaq, 6505 Dow Transports and 1047.04 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have overbought weekly mojo.
The Nasdaq remains influenced by my semiannual pivot at 3759 after setting a multi-year high at 3798.76 on Sep. 20. The all time highs are 15,709.59 Dow Industrials set on Sep. 18, 1729.86 S&P 500 on Sep. 19, 6754.81 Dow Transports on Sep 20 and 1082.00 Russell 2000 on Sep. 25.
If the Nasdaq ends the week above 3759 the upside potential elsewhere is to semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000.
Given a weekly close below 3759 on the Nasdaq, stocks become vulnerable towards annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Next Tuesday we will have new monthly and quarterly levels, which could temper this downside risk.
Daily Dow: (15,328) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,927, 14,724, 14,288 and 12,696 with a daily risky level at 15,385, the Sept. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,336 and 16,490.
S&P 500 - (1698.7) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1667.5, 1606.9, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a daily risky level at $1713.9, the Sept. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1766.8 and 1743.5.
NASDAQ - (3787) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3749, 3668, 3592, 3284 and 2806 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 3772 and 3759, the Sept. 20 multi-year high at 3798.76, and daily risky level at 3829.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3234) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3185, 2983 and 2463 with a weekly pivot at 3212, the Sept. 20 multi-year high at 3248.52, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 3276 and 3304.
Dow Transports - (6638) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6530, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a daily risky level at 6719, the Sept. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.
Russell 2000 - (1078.41) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1042.79, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the Sept. 25 all time high at 1082.00, and daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1092.32, 1093.07 and 1089.42.
The SOX - (494.71) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 479.94, 404.59 and 338.03 with a daily risky level at 498.69, the Sept. 19 high at 500.24, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 516.08 and 533.56.
Dow Utilities: (485.37) Semiannual and weekly value levels at 481.92 and 468.35 with daily, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 498.14, 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.
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