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  • The Nasdaq Held My Semiannual Pivot At 3759 This Week.  0 comments
    Sep 28, 2013 11:00 AM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note remains below its 50-day simple moving average (NYSE:SMA) at 2.736% as the decline in yield remains overdone on its daily chart. The weekly chart favors lower yields with the 10-Year below its five-week modified moving average (MMA) at 2.712%. The target is the 200-week SMA at 2.532%. The yield on the 30-Year bond is below its 50-day SMA at 3.751% as the decline in yield has become overdone on its daily chart. The weekly chart favors lower yields with the 30-Year below its five-week MMA at 3.726%. This yield has already tested the 200-week SMA at 3.640% last week.

    Gold remains below its 50-day SMA at $1344.9 the Troy ounce. For the gold rebound to continue we need to see a daily close above the 50-day. The weekly chart counters the daily chart with a negative profile. A weekly close below the five-week MMA at $1343.8 with declining mojo is negative.

    Crude oil remains below its 50-day SMA at $106.34 but with an oversold condition on the daily chart. The weekly chart stays negative with the five-week MMA at $105.55 and the 200-week SMA at $90.92.

    The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3320 and 1.3170 with an overbought daily chart. The weekly chart profile remains positive with the five-week MMA at 1.3341 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3346.

    10-Year Note - (2.624) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.907 and 3.227 with daily, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.496, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.

    Comex Gold - ($1336.8) My monthly value level is $1224.6 with daily, weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1362.4, $1401.6, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

    Nymex Crude Oil - ($102.70) My quarterly value level is $91.75 with a daily pivot at $102.73, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $105.87, $109.84 and $115.23.

    The Euro - (1.3517) Annual and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a weekly pivot at 1.3451 and daily and annual risky levels at 1.3660 and 1.4295.

    The daily chart for the Dow Industrial Average is below its 50-day SMA at 15,288with declining mojo. The S&P 500 is above its 50-day at 1680.2 with declining mojo. The Nasdaq, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 remain above its 50-day SMAs at 3667, 6490 and 1046.78 with overbought mojo on Nasdaq and Russell, but declining on Dow Transports.

    The weekly charts stay positive with weekly closes above the five-week MMAs at 15,237 Dow Industrials, 1677.93 S&P 500, 36782 Nasdaq, 6505 Dow Transports and 1047.04 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have overbought weekly mojo.

    Today's monthly and quarterly closes will result in new monthly pivots / risky levels and new quarterly risky levels.

    This week's value levels lag at 14,696 Dow Industrials, 1641.5 S&P 500, 3695 Nasdaq, 6318 Dow Transports and 1034.93 Russell 2000.

    The Nasdaq ended last week above my semiannual pivot at 3759 with the semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000.

    The all time highs are 15,709.59 Dow Industrials set on Sept. 18, 1729.86 S&P 500 on Sept. 19, 3798.76 Nasdaq on Sept. 20, 6754.81 Dow Transports on Sep 20 and 1082.00 Russell 2000 on Sept. 25.

    My annual value levels remain at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000.

    Daily Dow: (15,258) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 14,696, 14,724 and 12,696 with a daily risky level at 15,274, the Sept. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and semiannual risky level at 16,490.

    S&P 500 - (1691.8) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1641.5, 1606.9, 1525.6, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a daily risky level at $1702.3, the Sept. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and semiannual risky level at 1743.5.

    NASDAQ - (3782) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 3695, 3668 and 2806 with a semiannual pivot at 3759, the Sept. 20 multi-year high at 3798.76, and daily risky level at 3808.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3230) Weekly and annual value levels are 3165 and 2463 with the Sept. 20 multi-year high at 3248.52, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 3261, 3251 and 3304.

    Dow Transports - (6598) Weekly and annual value levels are 6318, 5925 and 5469 with a daily risky level at 6701, the Sept. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and semiannual risky level at 7104.

    Russell 2000 - (1074.19) Weekly and annual value levels are 1034.93 and 809.54 with the Sept. 25 all time high at 1082.00, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1082.98 and 1089.42.

    The SOX - (490.81) Weekly and annual value levels are 470.81 and 338.03 with a daily risky level at 494.20, the Sept. 19 high at 500.24, and semiannual risky level at 533.56.

    Dow Utilities: (482.19) Semiannual and weekly value levels at 481.92 and 457.20 with daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at 495.72, 523.33 and 540.37.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

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